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Conor McGregor vs Donald Cerrone UFC Odds

Cerrone vs McGregor Odds Analysis

*Odds came after Cerrone’s win over Mike Perry in November*

The UFC record holder for most wins and most finishes may be in store for a big payday as Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone dropped back down to lightweight and a date with Conor “The Notorious” McGregor may be on the horizon. McGregor is coming off a loss at UFC 229 and still has to go before the Nevada State Athletic Commission as a result of the melee that ensued after that loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov. However, if they are to go to battle, it is McGregor who is a -185 favorite with Cerrone coming back at +150.

Odds Analysis

Donald Cerrone has won nine of his last 10 lightweight fights and he was favored in six of those bouts, with his only loss coming against Rafael dos Anjos for the UFC lightweight belt. Following the loss, Cowboy moved up to welterweight and rattled off four straight victories but hit a rough patch against the top guys in the division, losing four of his next five fights.

The Ohio native talked about dropping down to lightweight following his win over Mike Perry. Cerrone was once again an underdog in his return to lightweight vs Alexander Hernandez at UFC Fight Night: Brooklyn and he dominated the fight en route to a beautiful head kick leading to a TKO victory.

Meanwhile, McGregor has been favored in all but two of his UFC fights, with his only times as a dog coming against Jose Aldo for the featherweight belt, a fight he won in 13 seconds, and his last bout vs Khabib Nurmagomedov, a fight in which he was submitted in the fourth round.

The Notorious has only had two lightweight fights in the UFC, both for the title, and he is 1-1 in those bouts – a win over Eddie Alvarez at UFC 205 and his aforementioned loss vs Nurmagomedov. This is the most McGregor has been favored by since the first time he fought Nate Diaz at UFC 196, when he was a -400 favorite and lost via second-round submission.

This could be a good time for McGregor to show off his improved wrestling, while also having the opportunity to stand and trade with a game opponent in Cerrone. Cowboy has been knocked out four times in his career – twice at welterweight and twice at lightweight – and the Notorious will try to make it five.

However, of Cerrone’s 35 professional wins, 17 have come by submission and all four of McGregor’s losses have come in that fashion. The Notorious should be favored in this fight, but I think it should be closer to -135 because Cowboy’s submission game is so dangerous and McGregor is susceptible to being submitted.

When would this fight take place?

There are a lot of moving parts going on with McGregor having to go before the Nevada State Athletic Commission on January 29. I don’t expect him to be slapped with a suspension other than perhaps a time-served suspension. I don’t think he gets the immediate rematch with Khabib as that fight is likely going to Tony Ferguson – assuming Nurmagomedov doesn’t face a long suspension.

Cerrone just fought on January 19, although he didn’t take much damage and he once fought twice in 15 days so he doesn’t need much time off –  Cowboy is the type of guy that you just tell him when and where. There hasn’t been anything announced for UFC 236 in April or UFC 238 in June so there’s two possibilities. However, the fight fan in me is hoping for a DC vs Jones III co-headlined by McGregor vs Cerrone at UFC 239, international fight week.

Conor McGregor vs Donald Cerrone 
  • Conor McGregor -185
  • Donald Cerrone +150
Odds as of November 14 at Bovada

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