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Conor McGregor vs Donald Cerrone UFC Odds

Cerrone vs McGregor Odds Analysis

The UFC record holder for most wins and most finishes may be in store for a big payday as Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone says he’s dropping back down to lightweight and a date with Conor “The Notorious” McGregor may be on the horizon. McGregor is coming off a loss at UFC 229 and still has to go before the Nevada State Athletic Commission as a result of the melee that ensued after that loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov. However, if they are to go to battle, it is McGregor who is a -185 favorite with Cerrone coming back at +150.

Odds Analysis

Donald Cerrone won eight of his last nine lightweight fights and he was favored in six of those bouts, with his only loss coming against Rafael dos Anjos for the UFC lightweight belt. Following the loss, Cowboy moved up to welterweight and rattled off four straight victories but hit a rough patch against the top guys in the division, losing four of his next five fights. The Ohio native is coming off an impressive win over Mike Perry and is returning to lightweight where he looks much better.

Meanwhile, McGregor has been favored in all but two of his UFC fights, with his only times as a dog coming against Jose Aldo for the featherweight belt, a fight he won in 13 seconds, and his last bout vs Khabib Nurmagomedov, a fight in which he was submitted in the fourth round. The Notorious has only had two lightweight fights in the UFC, both for the title, and he is 1-1 in those bouts – a win over Eddie Alvarez at UFC 205 and his aforementioned loss vs Nurmagomedov. This is the biggest favorite McGregor has been since the first time he fought Nate Diaz at UFC 196, when he was a -400 favorite and lost via second-round submission.

This could be a good time for McGregor to show off his improved wrestling, while also having the opportunity to stand and trade with a game opponent in Cerrone. Cowboy has been knocked out four times in his career – twice at welterweight and twice at lightweight – and the Notorious will try to make it five. However, of Cerrone’s 34 professional wins, 17 have come by submission and all four of McGregor’s losses have come in that fashion. The Notorious should be favored in this fight, but I think it should be closer to -135 because Cowboy’s submission game is so dangerous and McGregor is susceptible to being submitted.

When would this fight take place?

There are a lot of moving parts going on with McGregor having to go before the Nevada State Athletic Commission on December 10. I don’t expect him to be slapped with a suspension other than perhaps a time-served suspension. I don’t think he gets the immediate rematch with Khabib as that fight is likely going to Tony Ferguson – assuming Nurmagomedov doesn’t face a long suspension.

UFC 233 in Anaheim doesn’t have a main event, but without a belt on the line I’m not sure if the UFC would make this a headline on a PPV. My guess would either be UFC 235 in Las Vegas that may be headlined by Daniel Cormier and Brock Lesnar, or perhaps they headline the first ESPN card on January 19 at the Barclays Center.

Conor McGregor vs Donald Cerrone

Odds as of November 14 at Bovada

  • Conor McGregor -185
  • Donald Cerrone +150