A pivotal fight in the middleweight division will play out in this week’s UFC Fight Night main event. On the marquee, No. 5-ranked Derek Brunson collides with No. 7-ranked Darren Till with both men looking to take a jump closer to a title fight.
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs Till takes place this Saturday, September 4, at the UFC Apex Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. For the Brunson vs Till odds in the main event, it is the lower-ranked Till who is the betting favorite.
Following back-to-back losses in 2018, including a knockout loss to middleweight champion Israel Adesanya, Brunson has been on a tear, picking up four straight wins heading into this bout.
While Brunson rebounded from his losing skid, Till moved up from welterweight after losing two in a row and is 1-1 at middleweight, coming off a decision loss to Robert Whittaker last July.
Brunson vs Till Odds
Online sportsbook [Sportsbook not available for your region] has the Brunson vs Till odds, listing Darren Till as the -175 favorite and Derek Brunson the +145 underdog. This means that you would have to wager $175 to profit $100 with a Till victory, while a $100 bet on a Brunson win would net you $145.
Furthermore, according to our sports betting calculator, Till’s -175 betting line represents an implied win probability of 63.64 percent while Brunson’s odds have an implied win probability of 40.82 percent.
If you’re looking to place a bet on the biggest underdog of UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs Till, you will be wagering on Liudvik Sholinian, who is a +425 underdog to Jack Shore (-650). Conversely, the tightest betting line is found in the women’s flyweight bout with Ji Yeon Kim and Molly McCann set as a pick’em with both women holding -110 odds.
Brunson vs Till Betting Odds & Fight Card
- Main Card
- Middleweight – Derek Brunson (+145) vs Darren Till (-175)
- Heavyweight – Tom Aspinall (-240) vs Serghei Spivac (+190)
- Welterweight – Alex Morono (-125) vs David Zawada (+105)
- Light Heavyweight – Modestas Bukauskas (-155) vs Khalil Rountree (+130)
- Lightweight – Paddy Pimblett (-155) vs Luigi Vendramini (+130)
- Prelims
- Women’s Flyweight – Molly McCann (-110) vs Ji Yeon Kim (-110)
- Bantamweight – Jack Shore (-650) vs Liudvik Sholinian (+425)
- Catchweight – Julian Erosa (+150) vs Charles Jourdain (-185)
- Middleweight – Dalcha Lungiambula (+140) vs Marc-Andre Barriault (-170)
- Bantamweight – Jonathan Martinez (-165) vs Marcelo Rojo (+135)
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- Date/Time: September 4, 1:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
- Arena: UFC Apex
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
Derek Brunson vs Darren Till Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Derek Brunson | +145 |
| Darren Till | -175 |
The current four-fight winning streak that Derek Brunson (+145) is on is the longest since he won five in a row from 2014 to 2016. Conversely, Darren “The Gorilla” Till (-175) has just one win over the last three years, dropping three of his last four, and we haven’t seen him in action in over a year.
- Brunson has climbed to the top of the heap in the middleweight division a couple of times but failed to get over the hump when facing top contenders. His record is 22-7 with five of his defeats coming by knockout and 12 of his wins recorded in the same manner.
- One of the main factors in Derek’s recent winning streak has been a renewed emphasis on his wrestling. He averages 3.11 takedowns per 15 minutes but when he lost four of six bouts, he secured only two takedowns over that span. During his winning streak, he has landed 16 takedowns.
- On the feet, the southpaw mostly loads up on big strikes, using overhand punches to close distance or kicks to keep distance – he doesn’t like boxing range. Additionally, he primarily counters, looking to knock his foes over to get into a grappling exchange where he shines.
- Brunson’s last three fights were Ian Heinisch (win – unanimous decision), Edmen Shahbazyan (win – knockout) and Kevin Holland (win – unanimous decision).
- Till was a rising welterweight star in 2017 into ’18, earning a title shot in September 2018 that didn’t go his way. He carries an 18-3-1 record with 10 of his wins coming by knockout. He has one knockout loss, a submission and a decision defeat as well.
- While Brunson seeks the takedowns, Till averages only 0.54 of them per 15 minutes, having landing just five in his 10-fight UFC career. That said, he stuffs 82 percent of attempts against but has been taken down at least once in each of his last three bouts.
- The Gorilla’s approach is more that of a kickboxing match. He has a sideways karate stance and is a fantastic counter-striker when his opponents close the distance. Till throws plenty of feints but I think he would have more success if his output increased as he averages just 2.27 significant strikes per minute.
- Till’s last three fights were Jorge Masvidal (loss – knockout), Kelvin Gastelum (win – split decision) and Robert Whittaker (loss – unanimous decision).
Prediction: Darren Till (-175) via decision
Tom Aspinall vs Serghei Spivac Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tom Aspinall | -240 |
| Serghei Spivac | +190 |
A winning streak will come to a close when these two heavyweights meet. Tom Aspinall (-240) made his UFC debut in July of last year, winning three fights in the promotion, and has won six in a row overall. As for Serghei “The Polar Bear” Spivac (+190), he’s riding a three-fight winning streak after dropping two of his first three in the UFC.
- It has been three-up, three-down for Aspinall in the UFC with three stoppages in his first few fights in the promotion. Overall, he holds a 10-2 record with all of his wins being finishes (eight knockouts, two submissions). He’s been stopped once with a submission.
- The big orthodox fighter has a great output for a heavyweight and moves similarly to interim champion Ciryl Gane. Tom is light on his feet and has fast hands (perhaps he learned some things by sparring with WBC boxing champion Tyson Fury).
- Aspinall mixes up his strikes very well with kicks and fast hands and he can be the aggressor or a counter-striker. He averages 7.43 significant strikes per minute while also securing 3.54 takedowns per 15 minutes.
- Aspinall’s last three fights were Jake Collier (win – knockout), Alan Baudot (win – knockout) and Andrei Arlovski (win – submission).
- Spivac suffered his first pro loss in his UFC debut and two fights later had his second defeat. That said, he still has an impressive 13-2 record with one stoppage loss, a knockout. Meanwhile, he has 11 finish victories (five knockouts, six submissions).
- As in evident in his methods of victory, it’s clear that the Polar Bear is a well-rounded fighter. While his output isn’t near Aspinall’s, landing 3.85 significant strikes per minute, he mixes in 2.83 takedowns per 15 minutes as well.
- Serghei has good boxing, notably a crisp accurate jab. At times, he will load up on a big knockout shot that can be easily dodged, but if he lands he has good power. His best approach is on the floor, though, with exceptional top control with good ground and pound or searching for a submission.
- Spivac’s last three fights were Carlos Felipe (win – majority decision), Jared Vanderaa (win – knockout) and Aleksei Oleinik (win – unanimous decision).
Prediction: Tom Aspinall (-240) via knockout
Alex Morono vs David Zawada Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Alex Morono | -125 |
| David Zawada | +105 |
Alex “The Great White” Morono (-125) is looking for back-to-back wins for the first time since he won three in a row from 2018 into 2019. Meanwhile, David “Sagat” Zawada (+105) is looking to get back in the win column following a split-decision defeat in January.
- Morono has been struggling to find his footing in the UFC, constantly collecting a couple of wins followed by a loss. His record stands at 19-7 with one no contest and he’s been stopped only twice, both times by knockout. He also has six wins each by knockout and submission.
- The Great White is extremely aggressive from the outset, typically starting a fight with a tactic such as a big right hand. He is competitive wherever the fight goes and while he can secure a takedown, he averages just 0.43 per 15 minutes.
- On the feet, he likes a war-like atmosphere, averaging 5.05 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.69. He’s not as fast as some of his opponents but when he lands, he usually does damage, and he does a good job throwing more than one punch at a time.
- Morono’s last three fights were Rhys McKee (win – unanimous decision), Anthony Pettis (loss – unanimous decision) and Donald Cerrone (win – knockout).
- It has been tough sledding for Zawada, who made his UFC debut on the heels of a five-fight winning streak but is 1-3 in the Octagon. Overall, he is 17-6 with 11 knockout wins while also being knocked out twice.
- Sagat has been outstruck in all four of his UFC bouts while also being taken down six times to his three takedowns. It is on the feet where he likes to keep the fight, averaging just shy of one takedown per 15 minutes.
- He is an aggressive fighter in taking the center of the Octagon but after closing the distance, he is a lot more measured when he throws his strikes. Zawada has good kicks at range, notably his low kick, and his hands have really good power.
- Zawada’s last three fights were Jingliang Li (loss – knockout), Abubakar Nurmagomedov (win – submission) and Ramazan Emeev (loss – split decision).
Prediction: David Zawada (+105) via decision
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Modestas Bukauskas vs Khalil Rountree Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Modestas Bukauskas | -155 |
| Khalil Rountree | +130 |
Two men facing two-fight losing skids will collide looking to get back in the win column. Modestas “The Baltic Gladiator” Bukauskas (-155) made his UFC debut last July with a win but has dropped his two outings since. Meanwhile, Khalil “The War Horse” Rountree (+130) is searching for his first win in over two years, taking all of 2020 off as he contemplated retirement before returning in January.
- Bukauskas made his UFC debut following a six-fight winning streak, all inside the distance, and continued that stretch in that debut. He has an 11-4 record with 10 stoppage victories, eight of which were knockouts, but he’s been stopped three times as well, twice by knockout.
- The Baltic Gladiator has great long strikes from his snappy jab to powerful kicks. He moves really well for the light heavyweight division and has a good frame at six-foot-three with a 78-inch reach.
- He has great lateral movement and uses that to create angles through which he can land cleanly on his opponents. Bukauskas does have some difficulties with fighters who swarm him – he enjoys room to work. At times, he loads up on his right hand, but he’s more effective when he just throws it quickly.
- Bukauskas’s last three fights were Andreas Michailidis (win – knockout), Jimmy Crute (loss – knockout) and Michal Oleksiejczuk (loss – split decision).
- Rountree has spent much of his career in the UFC following a 4-0 start as a pro. He is now 8-5 with one no contest and has five knockout victories while he’s been knocked out twice.
- The War Horse changed his training in 2019 when he moved to Thailand to learn how to fight Muay Thai. The move paid off immediately as he never looked better than in his next match, knocking Eryk Anders down four times en route to a unanimous-decision win.
- The southpaw has good leg kicks since moving to Thailand and typically waits to explode when his foes enter his range rather than being the aggressor. No doubt he has big power in all of his strikes but his lack of output is a concern, surpassing 50 significant strikes only twice.
- Rountree’s last three fights were Eryk Anders (win – unanimous decision), Ion Cutelaba (loss – knockout) and Marcin Prachnio (loss – unanimous decision).
Prediction: Khalil Rountree (+130) via knockout
Paddy Pimblett vs Luigi Vendramini Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Paddy Pimblett | -155 |
| Luigi Vendramini | +130 |
Cage Warriors featherweight champion Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett (-155) is prepared to make his UFC debut and eyes a three-fight winning streak in the process. Looking to spoil the debut is Luigi “The Italian Stallion” Vendramini (+130), who made his UFC debut in 2018 and is 1-2 in the promotion.
- Pimblett has a lot of buzz around him after making his Cage Warriors debut at 18 years old, already 3-0 with three finishes. Now, at 26, his record stands at 16-3 with 12 finishes (five knockouts, seven submissions). His lone stoppage defeat came in his second CWFC bout, a submission loss to now-UFC fighter Cameron Else.
- The Baddy has a ton of personality outside the cage and inside he is someone to watch. He has exceptional kicks at long range and mixes them up well. If the fight gets to close range, his judo skills take over as he fires his foes to the mat.
- His boxing is sharp offensively but a little more head movement would go a long way defensively. Pimblett’s grappling and BJJ skills are impressive and aggressive, especially his rear naked choke.
- Pimblett’s last three fights were Soren Bak (loss – unanimous decision), Decky Dalton (win – knockout) and Davide Martinez (win – submission).
- Vendramini was unbeaten when he made his UFC debut, holding a record of 8-0. Now, of course, he holds a 9-2 record with nine stoppage wins (five knockouts, four submissions), while having been stopped once via knockout.
- Output has been a bit of an issue for The Italian Stallion, averaging just 2.26 significant strikes per minute and being outstruck in two of his three UFC bouts. That said, he has fast hands and powerful kicks.
- He does look for takedowns but is not fully committed in his attempts and that’s an area in which I’d like to see more from him.
- Vendramini’s last three fights were Elizeu Zleski dos Santos (loss – knockout), Jessin Ayari (win – knockout) and Fares Ziam (loss – majority decision).
Prediction: Luigi Vendramini (+130) via knockout
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs Till Best Bets
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Middleweight – Darren Till | -175 |
| Heavyweight – Tom Aspinall | -240 |
| Welterweight – David Zawada | +105 |
| Light Heavyweight – Khalil Rountree | +130 |
| Lightweight – Luigi Vendramini | +130 |
