Tom Aspinall is favored vs Marcin Tybura at UFC Fight Night London

Aspinall vs Tybura Odds & Pick: A Homecoming For A Heavyweight Stud

Heavyweight Tom Aspinall makes his much-awaited return to the UFC Octagon Saturday against Marcin Tybura. 

This five-round foray of fisticuffs will headline the latest London, England card at the O2 Arena, where the main card begins at 4 p.m. ET.

Although the Englishman Aspinall hasn't fought since tearing his MCL vs Curtis Blaydes on July 23, 2022, he's currently a -450 favorite vs Tybura.

Tom Aspinall vs Marcin Tybura Odds

Aspinall vs Tybura Odds
Tom Aspinall-450
Marcin Tybura+350

Odds as of July 17

Per our odds calculator, a $100 bet on Aspinall's -450 odds (81.82% implied chance) pays out $122.22. The same $100 on Tybura at +350 (22.22% implied chance) pays out $450.

How To Watch UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs Tybura

These O2 cards are always full of energy. Here's how to watch.

  • Date/Time: July 22, 12 p.m. ET
  • Location: London, England
  • Arena: O2 Arena
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+

UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs Tybura Full Card & Betting Odds

Here's Saturday's lineup in Vegas.

UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs Tybura Fight Card Odds
  • Main Card
  • Heavyweight Main Event – Tom Aspinall (-450) vs Marcin Tybura (+350)
  • Women's Flyweight – Molly McCann (-250) vs Julija Stoliarenko (+200)
  • Featherweight – Nathaniel Wood (-188) vs Andre Fili (+162)
  • Middleweight – Andre Muniz (-220) vs Paul Craig (+180)
  • Lightweight – Jai Herbert (+125) vs Fares Ziam (-150)
  • Featherweight – Lerone Murphy (-160) vs Josh Culibao (+130)
  • Prelims
  • Bantamweight – Davey Grant (+110) vs Daniel Marcos (-138)
  • Welterweight – Danny Roberts (TBD) vs Jonny Parsons (TBD)
  • Lightweight – Marc Diakese (+162) vs Joel Alvarez (-188)
  • Heavyweight – Michael Parkin (+130) vs Jamal Pogues (-160)
  • Middleweight – Bryan Barbarena (+225) vs Makhmud Muradov (-275)
  • Women's Bantamweight – Ketlen Vieira (-170) vs Pannie Kianzad (+140)
  • Lightweight – Chris Duncan (-138) vs Yanal Ashmouz (+110)
  • Women's Flyweight – Bruna Brasil (+125) vs Shauna Bannon (-150)
  • Flyweight – Jafel Filho (-125) vs Daniel Barez (+200)

Odds as of July 21

Tom Aspinall vs Marcin Tybura Tale Of The Tape

FighterTom AspinallMarcin Tybura
Record12-3 (5-1 UFC)24-7 (11-6 UFC)
Avg. Fight Time2:3012:40
Sig. Strikes Per Minute7.413.55
Sig. Strikes Absorbed Per Minute2.873.31
Takedowns Per 15 Minutes4.001.39
Takedown Accuracy100%33%
Takedown Defense100%79%

Aspinall vs Tybura Betting Preview: Who Has The Better Chance?

The easy answer is Aspinall. But let's find out how the Brit secures the win.

How Aspinall Wins

Aspinall can win in so many different ways. He's a classically trained boxer, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and he's also very quick for the heavyweight division. All those elements pose serious threats to the wrestler Tybura.

The 30-year-old is especially good at feinting punches to expose his opponents' tendencies. He did it in his debut vs Jake Collier, and those quick fakes opened up some striking lanes in his TKO win over Serghei Spivac, too.

Aspinall will win this fight. Watch for him to use his speed advantage on the feet and pepper Tybura from range. If the bout gets ugly, the Englishman is just as dangerous in the clinch or on the ground, where he owns two submission victories. 

How Tybura Wins

Again, I don't think Tybura will win, but I see him holding an advantage over Aspinall as the fight goes into the later rounds. Aspinall's never seen a third round, while Tybura has taken 10 UFC fights the distance. That's big.

Aspinall is a ferocious finisher, but Tybura isn't incompetent. The Pole has fought some very tough opponents at 265 pounds. We'll see the pace of this fight very early, but if it lingers into the later rounds, Tybura might snag the upper hand. 

Aspinall vs Tybura Betting Pick

The easy bet is Aspinall to win inside the distance, but that's too chalky (-350).

To spice things up, bet Aspinall in Round 1 or Aspinall to win in Round 2. The vet Tybura is sturdy, but not sturdy enough to avoid getting clipped.

Pick: Aspinall to win in Round 1 (+105)