UFC Fight Night Brooklyn: Cejudo vs Dillashaw Betting Odds and Picks

The UFC is heading to Brooklyn for its first card of 2019 and its first card on ESPN after a seven-year deal with Fox Sports. The event is headlined by a champion vs champion fight as bantamweight champion T.J. Dillashaw is dropping down to the flyweight division to take on Henry “The Messenger” Cejudo. Dillashaw is looking to become the seventh fighter to win belts in two different weight classes and is a -230 favorite with Cejudo coming back at +180.

Cejudo vs Dillashaw Fight Center

Odds Analysis

This is Cejudo’s second straight fight as an underdog after he closed as a big +350 dog against Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson, arguably the pound-for-pound greatest at the time. The former Olympian outwrestled DJ en route to a split-decision victory to become the second-ever flyweight champion.

However, it makes sense for Dillashaw to be favored because he is the bigger man dropping down in weight. This is the fifth time ever that the UFC has had two sitting champions stand toe-to-toe and the fighter who has made the weight class move is 3-1 in the previous four fights, with B.J. Penn’s loss to GSP in 2009 being the only defeat. That being said, Dillashaw is the first to drop down in weight to challenge for a second belt, as B.J. Penn, Conor McGregor, Daniel Cormier and Amanda Nunes all moved up in weight as they looked to secure two belts at the same time.

Henry Cejudo vs T.J. Dillashaw

Cejudo (+180) is riding a three-fight winning streak after suffering back-to-back losses just over two years ago, the only two losses of his career. The Messenger was stopped via knockout in the first round in his first fight with Demetrious Johnson at UFC 197 and fell via a split decision to Joseph Benavidez eight months later. Cejudo got a second crack at DJ at UFC 227 and redeemed his earlier loss with a split-decision victory to become the second-ever flyweight champion.

The California native has shown improvements in all aspects of his game, becoming a very well-rounded fighter, but when in trouble he always defaults to his exceptional wrestling pedigree that has seen him secure multiple takedowns in five of his nine UFC fights. When the 31-year-old gets the fight to the mat, he lets his hands fly with ferocious ground and pound that wears his opponent down.

Dillashaw (-230) looks to extend his four-fight winning streak, with his last two bouts ending via knockout. The bantamweight champion has possibly the best footwork and striking combinations in the entire UFC, resulting in him averaging 5.38 significant strikes per minute but only absorbing 2.94 significant strikes per minute.

The 32-year-old has just three career losses to his name, two of them via split decision and his Octagon debut ending in a first-round knockout loss to John Dodson. The California native has a pretty good wrestling game himself, defending 86 percent of attempts against him, and he has landed takedowns in nine of his 15 fights. However, in his first fight with Dominick Cruz in 2016, a bout Dillashaw lost via split decision, he was taken down four times and this will be a key in this fight.

The two biggest factors in this fight will be if Dillashaw can stuff Cejudo’s takedowns and if Cejudo can find any success in the standup against Dillashaw. Overall, each round starts on the feet and I think the bantamweight champion’s striking skills are superior to the flyweight champ’s and that is going to determine the fight.

Prediction: T.J. Dillashaw (-230) via knockout

Cejudo vs Dillashaw Fight Center

Greg Hardy vs Allen Crowder

Hardy (-550) is making his Octagon debut after winning both of his fights in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series and is a perfect 3-0 in his professional career with three straight knockouts, all of them coming before the third minute of the fight. The former NFL defensive end has simply dominated his opponents with explosive speed and power for the heavyweight division.

Including his amateur career, Hardy is 6-0 with six knockouts in a combined 4:29. You read that correctly: he has six wins in less than a round of experience. The Mississippi native has had some out-of-competition troubles, including issues involving domestic violence and cocaine possession.

Crowder (+375) is also a Dana White Tuesday Night Contender Series alum as he earned a contract with his third-round TKO over Don’Tale Mayes. Pretty Boy made his UFC debut at UFC 218 in December 2017 but it didn’t go his way as he was knocked out in the first round by Justin Willis and hasn’t been in action since.

The 29-year-old has fantastic cardio for the heavyweight division and is extremely athletic, having good powerful kicks mixed with a solid wrestling pedigree. All three of his career losses have come via knockout, while each of his last four wins have come in the same manner.

Greg Hardy has been an unstoppable force through his first six career bouts, including his amateur career, needing just 4:29 to dispose of all those opponents combined. Crowder will likely try to close the distance and move the fight to the mat, but getting in tight range with Hardy puts him in extreme danger to be knocked out. We haven’t seen Hardy go longer than a minute and 36 seconds in any of his fights so perhaps his cardio will be tested and we will find out what kind of fighter he is.

Prediction: Greg Hardy (-550) via knockout

Hardy vs Crowder Fight Center

Gregor Gillespie vs Yancy Medeiros

Gillespie (-550) is laying his perfect 12-0 record on the line as he seeks his sixth victory inside the Octagon. The New York native has finished his last four fights and 10 of his 12 victories overall with an even split between knockouts and submissions. The Gift has incredible forward pressure, willing to stand and trade or look to pick the ankle and drag the fight to the mat.

On the ground, Gillespie’s wrestling is exceptional as he moves through his opponents like a knife through warm butter, moving toward submissions. If the fight remains standing he has good head movement and each strike is thrown with the intention of ending the bout.

Medeiros (+375) is looking to avoid his first-ever losing streak as he is coming off a first-round knockout loss to Donald Cerrone last February. Prior to that defeat, The Kid was on a three-fight winning streak, the longest of his UFC career, all ending by finishes. The Hawaii native has exceptional striking with true power and accuracy as he lands 4.39 significant strikes per minute.

That being said, he doesn’t do a great job of getting out of the way of his opponents’ strikes as he absorbs 5.22 significant strikes per minute, electing to stand in the pocket and trade hands rather than using head movement and footwork to pick apart his opponents.

Expect fireworks when these two men enter the Octagon as Gillespie has earned performance of the night bonuses in three of his last four fights, while Medeiros has earned a bonus in six of his last nine bouts. Gillespie will likely look to get this fight to the mat but will stand and trade until he can find his Sportsbook. He has better head movement than Medeiros, which may end up being the difference maker.

Prediction: Gregor Gillespie (-550) via submission

Gillespie vs Medeiros Fight Center

Joseph Benavidez vs Dustin Ortiz

Benavidez (-240) is back in action following his impressive first-round knockout victory over Alex Perez in the Ultimate Fighter 28 Finale in November. The win was his first since returning from a torn ACL suffered in 2017. The 34-year-old made his return at UFC 225 and appeared to have some ring rust in a split-decision loss to Sergio Pettis, but he looked much better in his TKO victory over Perez five months later.

Benavidez twice challenged Demetrious Johnson for the flyweight crown but fell the first time via split decision and was knocked out in the first round in their rematch. The Texas native has exceptional speed that allows him to avoid strikes and 64 percent of his opponents’ significant strike attempts don’t land.

Ortiz (+190) is on his first three-fight winning streak inside the Octagon, winning two of those bouts via knockout. The 30-year-old has tremendous movement, always looking to judge the distance of his opponents and moving in and out of range. He likes to dissect his foes’ movements from afar, tempting them to move in so he can counter with powerful strikes of his own.

Ortiz also has a good ability to switch stances, making it difficult to figure out where his power is coming from. In addition to his solid strikes, he has a good wrestling game as well, averaging 3.01 takedowns per 15 minutes, including seven in his fight vs Alexandre Pantoja at UFC 220.

This is a rematch from just over four years ago when Benavidez beat Ortiz via unanimous decision. These two fighters are very evenly matched with their quickness and footwork, but I give Ortiz the edge when it comes to wrestling, which could really swing the momentum of this fight. Each fighter was able to secure two takedowns in their first meeting and Benavidez picked Ortiz apart. Since then, Benavidez has suffered a significant knee injury, while Ortiz has continued to improve and grow and I believe is hitting his stride

Prediction: Dustin Ortiz (+190) via decision

Benavidez vs Ortiz Fight Center

Paige VanZant vs Rachael Ostovich

VanZant (-160) is looking to put an end to her two-fight losing streak as she enters the cage for the first time since January of last year as she dealt with a broken forearm from her last fight. 12 Gauge landed 96 significant strikes to Jessica-Rose Clark’s 78 in that defeat, despite breaking her arm in the first round in what was her flyweight debut.

The 24-year-old is a creative striker who likes to throw spinning attacks, which is how she broke her arm when it landed on Clark’s forehead. She is an aggressive fighter who lands an average of 3.47 significant strikes per minute, but she has a tough time on the mat as two of her four career losses have come via rear-naked choke.

Ostovich (+130) is entering the Octagon for the first time since her submission loss to Montana De La Rosa at the Ultimate Fighter 27 Finale in July. The 27-year-old won her UFC debut, needing just 1:40 to submit Karine Gevorgyan via rear-naked choke. Ostovich is on a win-one, lose-win streak over her last six fights dating back to 2014 when she fought in Invicta.

She is primarily a wrestler with a good submission game and two of her four career wins have come by submission. In the standup department, the Hawaii native has pretty good footwork but doesn’t have great head movement, which has resulted in her getting knocked out in two of her four losses.

This is a classic striker vs grappler fight as Ostovich will be looking to get the fight to the mat, while VanZant will use her flashy strikes to try to put Ostovich away. It’ll be interesting to see how Ostovich will be mentally in the fight as she was assaulted by her husband and suffered a broken orbital bone in November. 12 Gauge has had a year to develop and improve her skills and I expect her to come out flying in this fight.

Prediction: Paige VanZant (-160) via knockout

VanZant vs Ostovich Fight Center

Glover Teixeira vs Karl Roberson

Teixeira (-120) has been on a win-one, lose-one streak over his last six fights and is coming off a unanimous decision defeat to Corey Anderson in July. The Brazil native was simply manhandled in that fight as he was dragged to the mat seven times and absorbed 88 significant strikes while dishing out 27. Teixeira has real knockout power, with 17 of his 27 professional victories coming in that manner, including three of his last four.

However, two of his last three losses have also come via knockout, albeit against top talent in Anthony Johnson and Alexander Gustafsson. The Brazil native has looked a little slower in his last few fights, but his power remains and if he elects to take the fight to the ground, he has a good ability to work toward advantageous positions.

Roberson (-110) is looking for his first winning streak in the UFC after earning an impressive unanimous decision win over Jack Marshman at UFC 230. That was a good test of character for Baby K as he was coming off his first career loss just six months prior, getting submitted in the first round vs Cezar Ferreira. Roberson is returning to the light heavyweight division after his last three bouts were in the middleweight division.

The 28-year-old has a calm approach, closing the distance with small steps forward without much movement, but when his opponents throw, he is very quick at getting out of range. His head movement is tremendous and his hand speed is remarkable. Although he doesn’t rush in at his foes, he can fire his lightning-quick left hand and do a lot of damage.

This is an exciting fight between a crafty veteran and a rising prospect. Teixeira will be slower than Roberson in this fight but his experience and power should not be overlooked. However, Baby K has impressive power in his own right and if he can remain active, he should be able to pick Glover apart. Additionally, Roberson’s fantastic head movement causes his opponents to miss 73 percent of their significant strikes, which tires them out and furthers his speed advantage.

Prediction: Karl Roberson (-110) via decision

Teixeira vs Roberson Fight Center

Here’s a look at the full odds for UFC Fight Night Brooklyn: Cejudo vs Dillashaw: