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Holm vs Aldana: Fight Night Odds & Expert Picks

The return to Fight Island was a successful and exciting one for UFC 253 and the promotion will remain at the Flash Forum this week as women’s bantamweights Holly Holm and Irene Aldana headline the event. We have a full preview and the betting odds for UFC Fight Night: Holm vs Aldana, which is taking place on Yas Island on Saturday, October 3.

Holm, the former champion, looks to collect a second straight win for the first time since she began her career with 10 wins in a row, a streak that was snapped in 2016. A win here may fast-track her to getting yet another title shot vs Amanda Nunes.

Meanwhile, after a stunning first-round knockout of Ketlen Vieira last December, Aldana hopes she can springboard to a title fight by knocking off a former champion. Aldana enters this fight as a winner in five of her last six, including her past two.

Online sportsbook Bovada has released UFC Fight Night: Holm vs Aldana betting odds and has listed Holm as the slight -125 favorite with Aldana coming back as a -105 underdog. That means you would have to wager $125 to profit $100 with a Holm win, while betting $105 on Aldana would profit you $100. You can find out all your potential winnings with our sports betting calculator.

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UFC Fight Island 4: Holm vs Aldana Betting Odds

  • Women’s Bantamweight – Holly Holm (-125) vs Irene Aldana (-105)
  • Heavyweight – Yorgan De Castro (-250) vs Carlo Felipe (+195)
  • Women’s Bantamweight – Germaine de Randamie (-150) vs Julianna Pena (+120)
  • Bantamweight – Kyler Phillips (-500) vs Cameron Else (+350)
  • Middleweight – Dequan Townsend (+265) vs Dusko Todorovic (-350)
  • Prelims
  • Welterweight – Carlos Condit (+110) vs Court McGee (-140)
  • Featherweight – Charles Jourdain (-450) vs Josh Culibao (+325)
  • Middleweight – Jordan Williams (-140) vs Nassourdine Imavov (+110)
  • Women’s Strawweight – Loma Lookboonmee (-150) vs Jinh Yu Frey (+120)
  • Bantamweight – Casey Kenney (-335) vs Alateng Heili (+255)
  • Lightweight – Luigi Vendramini (-110) vs Jessin Ayari (-120)

New to betting on the fights? Check out our UFC betting guide to get you in the action. Also, keep an eye on our UFC odds page for the latest up-to-date UFC betting odds.

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs Aldana Broadcast Information

  • Date/Time: October 3, 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Location: Yas Island (Fight Island), Abu Dhabi
  • Arena: Flash Forum
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+/ESPN

Holly Holm vs Irene Aldana Betting Odds

FighterOdds
Holly Holm-125
Irene Aldana-105

Since beating Ronda Rousey to win the title in 2015, Holm (-125) has struggled to find her footing, going 3-5. Aldana (-105) dropped her first two bouts in the Octagon, but she has won five of her last six, with the lone loss coming against former title challenger Raquel Pennington via split decision.


Holm: Need to Knows
  • The Preacher’s Daughter has been in five UFC title fights and is just 1-4 in those bouts.
  • Despite being known as a striker, she has been outstruck in five of her last seven bouts and averages 2.75 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.80. Additionally, she only lands 35 percent of her strikes.
  • Her reduced output is mostly because she stays on the outside, scoring points with her kicks and relying on counter-strikes. She will also secure a body lock and put her opponents against the cage and grind out a victory in the clinch.
  • Holm’s last three fights were Megan Anderson (win – unanimous decision), Amanda Nunes (loss – knockout) and Raquel Pennington (win – unanimous decision).


Aldana: Need to Knows
  • Aldana did fight for an Invicta FC championship but lost to Tonya Evinger via fourth-round knockout.
  • She is also known for being a striker and, similar to many other Mexican boxers, she has a high output and is known to get into a dogfight. Aldana averages 6.16 significant strikes per minute, while also absorbing 5.92, and she has outstruck each of her last six opponents.
  • Aldana fights long (though she will have a one-inch reach disadvantage in this fight), with a good jab and kicks. Additionally, she uses a lot of lateral movement to avoid strikes and create angles to land. At times, she seems to struggle to find her range, swinging at air and leaving herself vulnerable to counters.
  • Aldana’s last three fights were Raquel Pennington (loss – split decision), Vanessa Melo (win – unanimous decision) and Ketlen Vieira (win – knockout).

Prediction: Holly Holm (-125) via decision

Yorgan De Castro vs Carlos Felipe Betting Odds

FighterOdds
Yorgan De Castro-250
Carlos Felipe+195

On the heels of his first pro loss, Yorgan De Castro (-250) looks to return to the win column with a bang. Similarly, Carlos “Boi” Felipe (+195) made his UFC debut in July and suffered his first pro loss, snapping an eight-fight winning streak.


De Castro: Need to Knows
  • De Castro earned his contract with a first-round knockout win in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series and followed that up with a knockout win in his UFC debut before falling to Greg Hardy.
  • Although he has been outstruck in both of his UFC fights, he proved in the Justin Tafa bout that he needs just one opening to end the night. Of De Castro’s six pro wins, five have been by knockout.
  • He has a really fast counter overhand right that he uses effectively off his opponents’ low kicks. Speaking of leg kicks, he throws some powerful ones of his own, which forces his counterparts to engage with him, potentially opening the door for him to land one of those heavy hands.
  • De Castro’s last three fights were Sanford Alton Meeks (win – knockout), Justin Tafa (win – knockout) and Greg Hardy (loss – unanimous decision).


Felipe: Need to Knows
  • With eight wins (six knockouts) and no losses, it was no surprise that the UFC signed the 25-year-old Felipe, though he came up empty in his debut.
  • Boi was taken down three times in that fight and he wasn’t having a ton of success on the feet either, despite constantly shaking his head at his opponents’ strikes.
  • Felipe marches his opponents down throughout the fight and moves his head frequently. When he engages first, he throws a simple yet powerful 1-2 but often times will settle into being a counter-striker, though lacking the speed to be effective in that manner.
  • Felipe’s last three fights were Paulo Cesar Almeida (win – knockout), Francisco Sandro da Silva Bezerra (win – knockout) and Sergey Spivak (loss – majority decision).

Prediction: Yorgan De Castro (-250) via knockout

Germaine de Randamie vs Julianna Pena Betting Odds

FighterOdds
Germaine de Randamie-150
Julianna Pena+120

Germaine “The Iron Lady” de Randamie (-150) had her five-fight winning streak snapped in her last appearance in the title fight vs Amanda Nunes, who was also responsible for the loss prior to de Randamie’s winning streak. Julianna “The Venezuelan Vixen” Pena (+120) returns to the Octagon for just her fifth fight since 2015 as injuries and motherhood have kept her out of the cage.


de Randamie: Need to Knows
  • The Iron Lady is the former UFC featherweight champion and only one woman has beaten her in the Octagon: Amanda Nunes, the current women’s featherweight and bantamweight champion.
  • De Randamie is an outstanding kickboxer who was a perfect 46-0 with 30 knockouts in that discipline before transitioning to MMA. She is vulnerable to the takedown, which was on display when Nunes took her to the canvas eight times last December. However, Nunes is the only woman to take her down in the UFC.
  • On the feet, though, The Iron Lady has a fantastic jab that she uses to set up her heavier punches and kicks. She has a Muay Thai-style stance that is upright and she doesn’t have a lot of head movement, but she’s got quick feet and a powerful right hook. However, this style opens her up for takedowns.
  • De Randamie’s last three fights were Raquel Pennington (win – unanimous decision), Aspen Ladd (win – knockout) and Amanda Nunes (loss – unanimous decision).


Pena: Need to Knows
  • Pena has yet to fight for a title, though she did win The Ultimate Fighter season 18.
  • She has a fantastic record of 5-1 in the UFC, with her lone loss coming against women’s flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko. Pena has outstruck all six of her UFC opponents, but that’s because of her outstanding wrestling.
  • The Venezuelan Vixen averages 2.60 takedowns per 15 minutes and has landed at least one takedown in all six fights in the Octagon, hitting 52 percent of her takedown attempts. When she secures a takedown, she has great ground and pound. On the feet, she tends to stand heavy on her lead foot, which can be chopped down.
  • Pena’s last three fights were Cat Zingano (win – unanimous decision), Valentina Shevchenko (loss – submission) and Nicco Montano (win – unanimous decision).

Prediction: Germaine de Randamie (-150) via decision

Kyler Phillips vs Cameron Else Betting Odds

FighterOdds
Kyler Phillips-500
Cameron Else+350

Set to make his UFC debut is Cameron “Camchida” Else (-500), who lays his six-fight winning streak on the line. Kyler “Matrix” Phillips (+350) is also on a winning streak, albeit a shorter one at two fights after suffering his first pro loss in 2018.


Phillips: Need to Knows
  • Matrix has just one defeat in his pro career and it came via split decision after his appearance on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series. He won his UFC debut in February.
  • Phillips had a high output in that debut, outstriking Gabriel Silva 89-31, with both guys securing two takedowns.
  • Phillips is quick and has creative strikes with spinning attacks and a good jab. He’s quite strong in the clinch and although he has a high output, he showed no signs of slowing down in his decision win over Silva.
  • Phillips’ last three fights were Victor Henry (loss – split decision), Emeka Ifekandu (win – knockout) and Gabriel Silva (win – unanimous decision).


Else: Need to Knows
  • Among Else’s six straight wins, the longest bout lasted four minutes 27 seconds. That said, only one of those opponents had a winning record at 4-2 and the six had a combined record of 8-23.
  • Only one of Camchida’s 14 pro fights has reached the judges’ scorecards. All 10 of his wins have been finishes (six knockouts, four submissions), while his four losses were the result of two knockouts, one submission and one decision.
  • Else is mostly a counter-striker with strong hooks, though he can be rushed with a flurry of straight punches that make him freeze. At times, he keeps his hands low, which also can leave him vulnerable to being charged.
  • Else’s last three fights were Aidan James (win – knockout), Mark Stevens (win – knockout) and Brad Evans (win – submission).

Prediction: Kyler Phillips (-500) via knockout

Dequan Townsend vs Dusko Todorovic Betting Odds

FighterOdds
Dequan Townsend+265
Dusko Todorovic-350

Looking to get his first win in the UFC is Dequan “The Tarantula” Townsend (+265), who is 0-3 in the Octagon after being 6-1 in his previous seven fights before getting a contract. Meanwhile, Dusko Todorovic (-350) is making his UFC debut after earning a contract in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series last August.


Townsend: Need to Knows
  • The Tarantula is a big middleweight at six-foot-three with a 79-inch reach. Unfortunately, despite that long reach, he rarely throws anything, averaging 1.15 significant strikes per minute, and has been outstruck in all three of his UFC bouts.
  • Townsend loads up on his strikes, which can be easily dodged by his opponents, and when they engage with him, he covers up, unsure of how to fire back. Also, when he backs up, his chin shoots way up in the air, leaving him vulnerable to eating a big shot and going to sleep.
  • Townsend’s last three fights were Dalcha Lungiambula (loss – knockout), Bevon Lewis (loss – unanimous decision) and Devin Clark (loss – unanimous decision).


Todorovic: Need to Knows
  • Todorovic lays his perfect 9-0 record on the line, with eight of those wins being finishes (five knockouts, three submissions). One of those knockouts came against UFC prospect Michel Pereira.
  • He does a good job bobbing and weaving away from his opponents’ attacks, though in doing so he tends to drop his hands and bend at the waist, which could get him caught if he leans the wrong way.
  • At striking range, he has sneaky kicks and a good jab, though it doesn’t look overly impressive. He’s very accurate and has heavy hands.
  • Todorovic’s last three fights were Kazuo Takahashi (win – knockout), Michel Pereira (win – knockout) and Teddy Ash (win – unanimous decision).

Prediction: Dusko Todorovic (-350) via decision

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs Aldana Predictions & Odds

FighterOdds
Women’s Bantamweight - Holly Holm-125
Heavyweight - Yorgan De Castro-250
Women’s Bantamweight - Germaine de Randamie-150
Bantamweight - Kyler Phillips-500
Middleweight - Dusko Todorovic-350