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Islam Makhachev vs Thiago Moises Odds & Predictions: Islam’s First Main Event

Islam Makhachev (left) is favored in the Islam Makhachev vs Thiago Moises odds for the upcoming UFC Fight Night.

The lightweight division is one of the deepest and most exciting in the UFC and fight fans will be happy to see that weight class featured in the main event for this week’s UFC Fight Night. No. 9-ranked Islam Makhachev collides with No. 14-ranked Thiago Moises as the former attempts to climb closer to a title fight.

The event will take place at the UFC Apex Center in Las Vegas, Nevada, on July 17. Looking at the Makhachev vs Moises odds, it is the higher-ranked Islam that is the betting favorite.

Makhachev, a childhood friend of former champion Khabib Nurmagomedov, continues to be the boogeyman of the division with many fighters turning down bouts with him as he has his sights set on an eighth straight win and his second of 2021.

Moises also enters this bout on a winning streak, having won three in a row. The Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series alum dropped two of his first three in the Octagon before his current streak.

Makhachev vs Moises Odds

Online sportsbook Bovada has released the Makhachev vs Moises odds with Islam listed as the huge -800 favorite and Thiago coming in as the +500 underdog. This means that you would have to wager $800 to profit $100 with a Makhachev win, while a $100 bet on a Moises victory would profit you $500.

Our sports betting calculator tells us that the odds of -800 for Islam carry an implied win probability of 88.89 percent, while Thiago’s odds represent an implied win probability of 16.67 percent.

The largest favorite in the UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs Moises odds comes in the main event with Makhachev (-800) favored over Moises (+500). Meanwhile, the closest betting line comes in the prelim bantamweight fight with Khalid Taha listed as a -135 favorite over Sergey Morozov (+105).

Makhachev vs Moises Betting Odds & Fight Card


Makhachev vs Moises Betting Odds & Fight Card
  • Main Card
  • Lightweight – Islam Makhachev (-800) vs Thiago Moises (+500)
  • Women’s Bantamweight – Marion Reneau (+135) vs Miesha Tate (-165)
  • Lightweight – Jeremy Stephens (+175) vs Mateusz Gamrot (-220)
  • Middleweight – Rodolfo Vieira (-200) vs Dustin Stoltzfus (+160)
  • Featherweight – Gabriel Benitez (-165) vs Billy Quarantillo (+135)
  • Prelims
  • Welterweight – Daniel Rodriguez (-350) vs Preston Parsons (+265)
  • Women’s Strawweight – Amanda Lemos (-550) vs Montserrat Ruiz (+380)
  • Bantamweight – Khalid Taha (-135) vs Sergey Morozov (+105)
  • Bantamweight – Miles Johns (-185) vs Anderson dos Santos (+150)
  • Flyweight – Francisco Figueiredo (-330) vs Malcolm Gordon (+240)
  • Heavyweight – Alan Baudot (+270) vs Rodrigo Nascimento Ferreira (-360)

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Looking to make your first UFC bet but don’t know where to start? Our How to Bet UFC guide is a thorough outline to help you feel comfortable in placing a wager on the fights. Also, our UFC odds page has all of the latest UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs Moises betting lines to assist you in choosing the best odds.


UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs Moises Broadcast Information
  • Date/Time: July 17, 7 p.m. ET
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Arena:  UFC Apex
  • Where to Watch: ESPN/ESPN+

Islam Makhachev vs Thiago Moises Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Islam Makhachev-800
Thiago Moises+500

Injuries and a lack of willing dance partners led to Islam Makhachev (-800) being sidelined for a year and a half before his submission victory in March. Meanwhile, Thiago Moises (+500) competed three times during Makhachev’s hiatus and won all three fights.


Makhachev: Need to Knows
  • A shocking first-round knockout loss in his second UFC bout is the only blemish on Makhachev’s record. Overall, he is 19-1 with 11 stoppage wins (three knockouts, eight submissions).
  • The southpaw is incredibly well-rounded and some believe he is a future champion. He averages 2.00 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 0.77 and he also mixes in 3.46 takedowns per 15 minutes.
  • He is a fairly cautious fighter, evident in the few strikes he absorbs, and he does a good job not putting himself in much danger while being able to implement his plan. Like his friend Khabib Nurmagomedov, when Makhachev gets his hands on his foes, they often are taken down and held there.
  • In addition to being technically sound wherever the fight plays out, Islam also has outstanding conditioning, which allows him to push the pace for the duration of the bout and typically break his opponent with his pressure.
  • Makhachev’s last three fights were Arman Tsarukyan (win – unanimous decision), Davi Ramos (win – unanimous decision) and Drew Dober (win – submission).


Moises: Need to Knows
  • As mentioned off the top, Moises did drop two of his first three fights in the UFC but has found his footing since. His record stands at 15-4 with each of his losses coming by decision while nine of his wins have been stoppages (three knockouts, six submissions).
  • He is an intelligent fighter on the feet and while it’s not his strongest area, he does a good job maintaining distance with his kicks and keeps his hands up for maximum protection. He averages 2.85 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.88.
  • He is most dangerous on the floor with his high-level submission skills, though he only averages 1.06 takedowns per 15 minutes. He’s aggressive in searching for submissions, specifically with leg locks and heel hooks, and he has fairly good conditioning that keeps him dangerous.
  • Moises’s last three fights were Michael Johnson (win – submission), Bobby Green (win – unanimous decision) and Alexander Hernandez (win – unanimous decision).

Prediction: Islam Makhachev (-800) via submission

Marion Reneau vs Miesha Tate Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Marion Reneau+135
Miesha Tate-165

Former women’s bantamweight champion Miesha “Cupcake” Tate (-165) is returning to the Octagon for the first time in five years. Looking to welcome her back with a closed fist is Marion “The Belizean Bruiser” Reneau (+135), who is searching for her first win since 2018.


Reneau: Need to Knows
  • Reneau is mired in a rough patch, having lost four straight bouts heading into this fight. Her record now sits at 9-7 with eight of her wins coming by stoppage (five knockouts, three submissions). All seven of her losses have been by decision.
  • With a name like the Belizean Bruiser, don’t look for Reneau to go for a takedown, having secured 0.66 per 15 minutes. However, she has landed at least one in each of her last three fights after getting just two takedowns in her previous nine UFC bouts.
  • She prefers to stand and bang, averaging 3.29 significant strikes per minute and absorbing 3.37, and she has been outstruck in each of her last four fights. Reneau is persistent in throwing leg kicks but can often be picked apart in boxing range.
  • Reneau’s last three fights were Yana Kunitskaya (loss – unanimous decision), Raquel Pennington (loss – unanimous decision) and Macy Chiasson (loss – unanimous decision).


Tate: Need to Knows
  • Tate retired in 2016 following back-to-back setbacks, the first resulting in the loss of her belt to Amanda Nunes. She returns with an 18-7 record with 10 of her wins being finishes (three knockouts, seven submissions). Tate has also been stopped five times (two knockouts, three submissions).
  • Cupcake retired at 29 years old but is reinvigorated and ready for another title run. She was outstruck in four of her last five fights but it is in grappling where she does her best work, averaging 2.06 takedowns per 15 minutes.
  • She always worked well behind her jab, though she lacked head movement and power, which caused her to have a hard time keeping her opponents off her. However, when Tate got her foes against the cage, she smothered them and took them down as she is quite strong.
  • Tate’s last three fights were Holly Holm (win – submission), Amanda Nunes (loss – submission) and Raquel Pennington (loss – unanimous decision).

Prediction: Miesha Tate (-165) via decision

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Jeremy Stephens vs Mateusz Gamrot Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Jeremy Stephens+175
Mateusz Gamrot-220

Fresh off his first victory in the Octagon, Mateusz “Gamer” Gamrot (-220) eyes a second win in 2021. Hoping to prevent that second win and collect his first triumph in over three years is Jeremy “Lil Heathen” Stephens (+175), who is returning to lightweight for the first time since 2013.


Stephens: Need to Knows
  • A veteran of the cage, Stephens made his UFC debut at UFC 71 in 2007 and this is his 34th walk to the Octagon. He carries a 28-18 record with one no contest and 21 of his wins have been stoppages (19 knockouts, two submissions). Meanwhile, he has been finished six times, three by knockout and three by submission.
  • Lil Heathen is a hard-hitting brawler, averaging 3.18 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.06. He also averages 1.16 takedowns per 15 minutes but has landed only three over his last 14 fights.
  • He is a bully in the cage, constantly stalking forward and looking to get into a war, but he has a tendency to load up on his punches, which his foes dodge. When he’s under fire, he has a habit of just raising his hands to protect himself rather than moving to punch back.
  • Stephens’s last three fights were Yair Rodriguez (no contest), Yair Rodriguez (loss – unanimous decision) and Calvin Kattar (loss – knockout).


Gamrot: Need to Knows
  • One of Poland’s top prospects, Gamrot dropped his UFC debut but rebounded in a big way in his second walk to the Octagon. His record is an impressive one at 18-1 with one no contest and his lone defeat coming by split decision. Ten of his wins are finishes (six knockouts, four submissions).
  • In two UFC bouts, Gamer has two performance bonuses – a fight of the night and performance of the night. The southpaw is very well-rounded, averaging 4.26 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 2.20, and he averages 4.91 takedowns per 15 minutes as well.
  • He is intelligent on the feet, not throwing everything into his shots while reading how his opponent reacts to every movement. His striking isn’t his bread and butter, though he continues to improve in that area.
  • Gamrot’s last three fights were Marian Ziolkowski (win – unanimous decision), Guram Kutateladze (loss – split decision) and Scott Holtzman (win – knockout).

Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot (-220) via knockout

Rodolfo Vieira vs Dustin Stoltzfus Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Rodolfo Vieira-200
Dustin Stoltzfus +160

Fresh off his first professional loss back in February, Rodolfo Vieira (-200) looks to return to the win column. Similarly, Dustin Stoltzfus (+160) saw his 10-fight winning streak snapped in his UFC debut last November.


Vieira: Need to Knows
  • Prior to his loss in February, Vieira held a perfect 7-0 record with each win coming by stoppage (one knockout, six submissions).
  • Likely not surprising based on his record, the standup is not the best area for Rodolfo, averaging just 1.66 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.06. However, he averages 7.00 takedowns per 15 minutes and has landed at least two in each of his three UFC bouts.
  • He is a huge middleweight and incredibly strong. Vieira closes distance with a few jabs before shooting for a takedown. When he gets his hands on his foe, he’s so strong that he will lift and slam and then constantly searches for submissions.
  • Conditioning was a big reason for his loss to Anthony Hernandez. After he failed to secure a submission early in the first round, he was hit hard on the feet and his energy was depleted, leading to his submission defeat.
  • Vieira’s last three fights were Oskar Piechota (win – submission), Saparbek Safarov (win – submission) and Anthony Hernandez (loss – submission).


Stoltzfus: Need to Knows
  • Following a loss in his fourth pro fight, it took until his 15th bout for him to fall again. Overall, Stoltzfus carries a 13-2 record with both of his losses being decisions. He has seven stoppage wins (two knockouts, five submissions).
  • Dustin earned a UFC contract with his first-round knockout win in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series last August. He is a gritty fighter who is always moving forward making a dirty fight.
  • He has good balance and grappling defense and when he hits the floor, he’s always searching for leg locks or exits to get the fight standing again. On the feet, Stoltzfus moves forward throwing big strikes, which leads to clinch situations.
  • Stoltzfus’s last three fights were Nihad Nasufovic (win – submission), Joseph Pyfer (win – knockout) and Kyle Daukaus (loss – unanimous decision).

Prediction: Dustin Stoltzfus (+160) via decision

Gabriel Benitez vs Billy Quarantillo Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Gabriel Benitez-165
Billy Quarantillo+135

Billy Quarantillo (+135) looks to return to the win column after having his eight-fight winning streak snapped in his last appearance. Meanwhile, Gabriel “Moggly” Benitez (-165) ended his two-fight losing skid with a first-round knockout win in December.


Benitez: Need to Knows
  • Benitez has struggled to find his footing in the UFC, never having a streak of more than two wins or two losses. Overall, his record is 22-8 with half of his losses being stoppages (two knockouts, two submissions). Among his wins, 18 have been finishes (eight knockouts, 10 submissions).
  • Moggly has great striking defense, making his opponents miss 70 percent of their strike attempts, and he lands 4.38 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.26.
  • Though Benitez has 10 submissions on his record, he has landed only one takedown across 10 UFC bouts. His best weapons are his kicks and he mixes the target often and well.
  • Benitez’s last three fights were Sodiq Yusuff (loss – knockout), Omar Morales (loss – unanimous decision) and Justin Jaynes (win – knockout).


Quarantillo: Need to Knows
  • Quarantillo had been perfect after getting his UFC contract in DWTNCS, winning that fight and three straight in the Octagon before his loss. His record sits at 15-3 with 11 of his wins coming via stoppage (six knockouts, five submissions).
  • Billy outstruck each of his first four UFC foes (including the DWTNCS appearance) and he averages 7.03 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.37. He also mixes in 1.28 takedowns per 15 minutes.
  • He has outstanding conditioning and is always marching forward throwing strikes. His boxing is a little sloppy, typically with wide hooks, and I find his kicks at distance are his better weapon.
  • Quarantillo’s last three fights were Spike Carlyle (win – unanimous decision), Kyle Nelson (win – knockout) and Gavin Tucker (loss – unanimous decision).

Prediction: Gabriel Benitez (-165) via decision

UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs Moises Best Bets

FighterOdds
Lightweight – Islam Makhachev-800
Women’s Bantamweight – Miesha Tate-165
Lightweight – Mateusz Gamrot-220
Middleweight – Dustin Stoltzfus+160
Featherweight – Gabriel Benitez-165