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Israel Adesanya vs Marvin Vettori Odds & Prediction

Israel Adesanya (left) is favored in the Israel Adesanya vs Marvin Vettori UFC 263 odds.

A rematch more than three years in the making has Israel Adesanya making his third middleweight title defense against Marvin Vettori. Preceding the main event is another rematch title fight as Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno run back their fight of the year candidate bout from last December.

UFC 263 is scheduled to take place on June 12 at the Gila River Arena in Arizona. Looking at Adesanya vs Vettori odds, it is the champ, Adesanya, favored over the challenger, Vettori.

Online sportsbook Bovada has released the Adesanya vs Vettori odds and has Israel listed as the -265 favorite with Marvin coming back as a +210 underdog. This means you would have to wager $265 to profit $100 on an Adesanya victory while a $100 bet on a Vettori win would profit you $210.

Adesanya vs Vettori Odds

FighterOdds
Israel Adesanya-265
Marvin Vettori+210

Odds as of June 9 at Bovada

Our sports betting calculator tells us that Adesanya’s odds of -265 represent an implied win probability of 72.60 percent while Vettori’s +210 betting odds have an implied win probability of 32.26 percent.

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Not familiar with betting on the fights? Be sure to check out our How to Bet UFC betting guide to help you get in the action. Also, keep an eye on our UFC odds page for the latest up-to-date Adesanya vs Vettori betting lines.

Adesanya vs Vettori Odds Analysis

The odds are almost the same as they were the first time they met in April 2018 when “The Last Stylebender” was also the favorite, coming in at -250, while Vettori was the +200 underdog. That bout ended in a split-decision triumph for Adesanya.

Rare underdog spot for Vettori

The last time “The Italian Dream” was an underdog came five fights ago in that bout with Adesanya. He’s been an underdog just twice in 10 UFC bouts but lost both of those contests, so he may not be the strongest dog to back.

Adesanya vs Vettori Preview

The last time we saw Adesanya, he was attempting to become a two-division champion by challenging Jan Blachowicz for the light heavyweight strap. He battled hard but ultimately lost via unanimous decision. He returns to middleweight where he is undefeated at 20-0 with 15 knockouts and has made two title defenses.

The Last Stylebender is big for the division, standing six-foot-four with an 80-inch reach, and he uses that length extremely well with accurate power punches. He also has a diverse skill set and can batter his opponents with his hands or use his kicks to punish them. Working on his jiu-jitsu game more recently, Adesanya has dared his opponents to take him down, but Blachowicz took him down three times with little difficulty and held him there.

How much has Vettori improved since the first fight with Adesanya?

The Italian Dream has had a hard time getting back in the cage since his first dance with the champ, winning his only five fights but having seven bouts canceled due to opponents pulling out. He has been fairly dominant in those five victories, outstriking all but one opponent, and set a UFC middleweight record in his most recent appearance with 11 takedowns.

In their first meeting, Vettori caused issues for Adesanya by constantly moving forward and countering immediately any time Israel threw a strike, employing a strategy similar to Kelvin Gastelum’s when he fought Adesanya in an all-out war.

Adesanya vs Vettori Pick

Watching the first fight again, there was certainly an argument for Vettori winning the first and third rounds, as one judge scored it. It took until the third round for The Italian Dream to secure his first takedown, meaning he stood and survived in the striking game with the Last Stylebender for two rounds.

I would argue that Vettori’s striking has gotten better, along with his conditioning and his grappling – improvements that were on full display in his last fight. All that said, though, Adesanya has been fighting tougher competition and his striking has looked to be improved and surely he has learned a lot from the first fight.

Ultimately, I think Vettori is a bad matchup for Adesanya but he will have to make sure he doesn’t get overexcited if he has early success. Stay the course, try to get some takedowns, and I think he could be crowned champion.

Prediction: Marvin Vettori (+210) via decision