UFC Fight Night Fort Lauderdale: Jacare vs Hermansson Odds and Picks

The UFC returns to Florida for the first time in just over a year as the Octagon will be set up at the BB&T Center. The card is headlined with a tilt in the middleweight division as Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza takes on Jack “The Joker” Hermansson. Jacare has opened as a -210 favorite with Hermansson coming back at +170. I have a breakdown and a pick for each fight on the main card.

Jacare vs Hermansson Fight Center

Jacare Souza vs Jack Hermansson

Souza (-210) is riding a win-one, lose-one streak over his last five fights and is coming off a third-round knockout win over Chris Weidman at UFC 230. The 39-year-old’s three losses in the UFC since 2013 have come against Yoel Romero via split decision, a knockout loss to current middleweight champion Robert Whittaker and a split-decision loss to Kelvin Gastelum. Overall, he is 8-3 in the Octagon.

The Brazil native is a march-forward type of fighter looking to get his hands on his opponents and aiming to drag the fight to the floor where he can work toward a submission. Recently, we have seen a substantial improvement in his standup where he has earned a knockout victory in three of his last four wins and his chin has been solid, only being knocked out three times in his career.

Hermansson (+170) has quickly made a name for himself since joining the UFC in 2016. He has fought eight times in the Octagon over 30 months and holds a 6-2 record. Most recently, the Sweden native has rattled off three straight wins, including a first-round submission of David Branch just under a month ago.

The 30-year-old is a scrappy and very strong fighter who closes the distance quickly looking to move the fight to the mat where he really excels. The Joker cuts through his opponents’ guard like a warm knife through butter and when he’s on top, he rains down a vicious ground and pound aiming to earn the TKO finish or open up an opportunity for a submission victory. Only his Octagon debut against Scott Askham has gone to the judges’ scorecards over his tenure in the UFC. His other seven fights have been finishes.

This is a great battle between two high-level grapplers but once the fight hits the floor, the approach is different. Jacare has a ridiculous submission game that sees him willing to pull guard to ensure the fight hits the floor. Meanwhile, Hermansson has an aggressive ground and pound for damage on the mat. I don’t think the Joker will be able to throw Jacare around like he has done to his other opponents, or pass guard either.

Prediction: Jacare Souza (-210) via submission

Jacare vs Hermansson Fight Center

Greg Hardy vs Dmitrii Smoliakov

Hardy (-335) returns to the Octagon for the first time since his true debut in January. The former NFL star earned a UFC contract after back-to-back first-minute knockouts in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series. Hardy had one more tune-up fight at XFN 352 where he had another first-round knockout. However, in his debut, he threw a fight-ending illegal knee in the second round that resulted in a disqualification loss.

The “Prince of War” has extreme knockout power as his six wins – three professional and three amateur – have all been by T/KO, with none of them lasting past 1:36 of the first round. Hardy faced a tough wrestler in his debut in January but did all right, stuffing two of three attempts and outstriking Allen Crowder 35-16 before the illegal knee.

Smoliakov (+255) is returning to the UFC for the first time since 2017. “The Lifeguard” had a two-fight stint in the Octagon in 2016 and 2017 but lost both of those bouts, one by submission and one by knockout, the only two losses of his career. Smoliakov left the organization and earned a first-round submission win in the Asian Challenge in January.

The 36-year-old is a cautious fighter who uses a lot of footwork to avoid strikes and look for his opportunities to land. He also likes to throw a lot of kicks, but in doing so he drops his hands frequently. Additionally, Smoliakov uses spinning attacks to keep his opponents at bay and keeps them from rushing in on him. However, he only lands 1.63 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.35 significant strikes per minute.

Hardy has better striking than Smoliakov, although both fighters tend to overextend on their strikes, which leaves them susceptible to counters. Cardio could be an issue if this fight drags on at all as the Lifeguard has shown signs of exhaustion in the latter part of rounds, but the Prince of War looked OK going two rounds with Allen.

Prediction: Greg Hardy (-335) via knockout

Hardy vs Smoliakov Fight Center

Alex Oliveira vs Mike Perry

Oliveira (-185) is looking to get back in the win column after having his two-fight winning streak snapped his last time out at UFC 231 in December. “Cowboy” was submitted in the second round by Gunnar Nelson in that bout for just the fourth loss in Oliveira’s 14-fight UFC career. Over his 14 bouts in the Octagon, only two fights have gone to the judges’ scorecards.

The 31-year-old has fantastic kicks and will chew up his opponents’ lead leg, which allows him to storm forward with his quick hands, taking advantage of their limited mobility. Overall, he averages 3.08 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.01. Additionally, if he feels any pressure in the standup, he will gladly move the fight to the floor where he averages 3.19 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Perry (+150) has been in a rough patch recently and is looking to avoid his second-ever two-fight losing streak. “Platinum” has lost three of his last four fights, with his only triumph being a split-decision win over Paul Felder at UFC 226 in July of last year. His three defeats over this recent slide came against Santiago Ponzinibbio and Max Griffin by unanimous decision and Donald Cerrone by submission.

The 27-year-old is a brawler through and through as 11 of his 12 professional wins have been knockouts, but he hasn’t earned a victory in that manner since September 2017. He is very aggressive, daring his opponents to stand in the pocket and trade with him as he has a lot of faith in his chin, having never been knocked out.

I find that Perry has a little bit of difficulty tracking kicks, always just a little delayed in reacting to them, which could be an issue against Oliveira. Additionally, Platinum only stuffs 68 percent of takedown attempts while Cowboy averages over three takedowns per 15 minutes so if Perry is having some success on the feet, I anticipate the fight to hit the floor quickly after.

Prediction: Alex Oliveira (-185) via decision

Oliveira vs Perry Fight Center

Glover Teixeira vs Ion Cutelaba

Teixeira (-120) is riding a win-one, lose-one streak over his last seven fights and looking for his first winning streak since 2015 into 2016. Most recently, the Brazil native earned a first-round submission victory over Karl Roberson for his first submission win since he choked out Ovince Saint Preux in 2015. Overall, Teixeira is 11-5 through 16 career UFC fights.

The 39-year-old is a well-rounded fighter who has real power in his hands and a good offensive wrestling game. Of Teixeira’s 28 professional wins, 17 have come by knockout and seven by submission. He averages 2.21 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands 3.46 significant strikes per minute.

Cutelaba (-110) is looking for his first three-fight win streak in the UFC. “The Hulk” began his Octagon career on the wrong foot, getting submitted in the third round by Misha Cirkunov, but has won three of his last four, including earning back-to-back first-round knockouts heading into this fight. Overall, Cutelaba holds a professional record of 14-3 with 11 of his wins coming by knockout.

The 25-year-old throws all of his strikes with bad intentions but sometimes the strikes are a little wild and that has resulted in him only landing 35 percent of his significant strike attempts. However, he also lands 4.62 significant strikes per minute and when he has his opponents hurt, he has the ability to have a ridiculous output to make sure he puts his foes away.

This is an intriguing fight between a veteran in Teixeira and an up-and-comer in Cutelaba. The Brazilian is very well-rounded and has the ability to dictate where this fight takes place, but the Moldova native can put a pace on his opponents that can break them. Both fighters have knockout power that I think will determine the fight.

Prediction: Ion Cutelaba (-110) via knockout

Teixeira vs Cutelaba Fight Center

John Lineker vs Cory Sandhagen

Lineker (-150) is seeking a third win in a row and is entering the Octagon for the first time since UFC 224 in May of last year. “Hands of Stone” had a six-fight winning streak from 2014 to 2016 before losing a three-round decision to future bantamweight champion T.J. Dillashaw at UFC 207 at the end of 2016. Following the defeat, Lineker has gotten back to winning with a decision win over Marlon Vera and a third-round knockout win over Brian Kelleher at UFC 224.

The 28-year-old likes to back his opponents down and throw hands in a phone-booth style of fight. He doesn’t use a lot of extra energy in footwork and head movement but rather tries to beat his opponents to the punch with his lightning-fast hands that have real power behind them. He trusts his chin and it hasn’t let him down as the Brazilian has 14 knockout victories in his career and no losses in that manner.

Sandhagen (+120) is looking to remain undefeated in the UFC as he makes his fourth walk to the Octagon. The 27-year-old is a perfect 3-0 under the UFC banner, with each of those victories being finishes, two by knockout and one by submission. Overall, the Colorado native has a 10-1 professional record with four wins coming by knockout, three by submission and three by decision. His only loss came on the judges’ scorecards.

Sandhagen is a tall fighter for the bantamweight division, standing five-foot-11, and has tremendous heart. In his fight vs Iuri Alcantara, he survived a seemingly nasty armbar and earned a second-round knockout after outstriking Alcantara 104-13. He has been taken down in each of his three fights in the UFC and has yet to stuff a takedown. But in striking, he averages 8.89 significant strikes per minute and is extremely accurate.

This is going to be a war on the feet between two solid strikers. I don’t anticipate either fighter to be shooting for many takedowns but rather they are going to test each other on the feet. Sandhagen is very accurate with his strikes, seemingly being able to find the chin on every punch, while Lineker is a little more loopy with his punches but has good power.

Prediction: Cory Sandhagen (+120) via decision

Lineker vs Sandhagen Fight Center

Roosevelt Roberts vs Thomas Gifford

Roberts (-400) is aiming to move to 2-0 in the UFC following his good debut in November of last year. “The Predator” earned a first-round submission win over Darrell Horcher at the Ultimate Fighter 28 finale to push his professional record to 7-0. All of his wins have been finishes (three knockouts and four submissions) and he earned a UFC contract with his second-round submission win in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series.

The 25-year-old uses a lot of feints to open up areas to land his strikes and he has very accurate strikes when he finds his openings. Additionally, because of the feints, he is able to make his opponents miss 52 percent of their strike attempts and he only absorbs 1.99 significant strikes per minute while landing 4.32 of his own.

Gifford (+300) is making his Octagon debut and brings with him a five-fight unbeaten streak. “The Young Lion” has had an up-and-down career, sporting a record of 14-7 with each of his wins ending in finishes, two by knockout and 12 by submission. Meanwhile, of his seven losses, five have been finishes, two by T/KO and three by submission.

The 26-year-old is very light on his feet but doesn’t have a lot of head movement to accompany it. Additionally, he is predominantly a counter-striker, using his footwork to bait his opponents until they get into his striking range so he can fire back.

Two prospects kick the main card off and will likely do so with fireworks. Both fighters have great skill sets as Gifford bounces around a lot but doesn’t have a lot of power while Roberts is a little more relaxed and has fantastic head movement and accuracy in his strikes.

Prediction: Roosevelt Roberts (-300) via knockout

Roberts vs Gifford Fight Center

Here’s a full list of odds for UFC Fight Night Fort Lauderdale: Jacare vs Hermansson: