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UFC: Jones vs Blachowicz Odds Analysis

Jones vs Blachowicz Betting Odds

After Jon Jones narrowly escaped with his light heavyweight title at UFC 247 against Dominick Reyes, his next opponent appears to have emerged from the UFC Fight Night 167 main card. Jan Blachowicz disposed of the likely No. 1 contender Corey Anderson in just three minutes with a devastating knockout. Despite this great performance, the Poland native is a sizable +400 underdog in a potential bout against Jon “Bones” Jones, who is coming back as a -600 favorite. The fight hasn’t been announced yet but in all likelihood will be the main event for the International Fight Week card in July.

Odds Analysis

It’s nothing new to see Jones as a massive favorite, having closed as chalk of -500 or more in 10 of his last 14 bouts, although his last two fights were considered controversial decisions in his favor, especially his UFC 247 win over Dominick Reyes in early February. This could mean Jones’ title reign is nearing an end and cashing in on a +400 underdog would be nice for the bankroll.

Blachowicz has been good to his backers recently. He has been an underdog twice during his three-fight winning streak, including his knockout win over Anderson when the Poland native was +185. In his 14 UFC bouts, in which he has a 9-5 record, he has been an underdog nine times and he would have earned bettors a profit of $940 had they bet $100 on each of those underdog bouts.

How Will This Fight Play Out?

The challenger, Blachowicz, is predominantly a counter-striker who lets his opponents come to him as he looks for an opportunity to land his heavy strikes. And heavy they are, with seven of his 26 professional wins coming by knockout. A slightly underrated part of his game is his grappling – he actually has a higher takedown percentage than Jones, hitting 52 percent of his attempts to Jones’ 44 percent. Additionally, the Polish fighter has nine submission wins to his name. All that said, he can often be seen standing a little flat-footed and can be caught waiting too long on his opponents.

As for the champion, Jones is extremely well-rounded, having the ability to stand and strike for 25 minutes or take the fight to the floor, averaging 1.85 takedowns per 15 minutes. His conditioning is outstanding – he typically picks up the pace dramatically in the championship rounds – and he constantly stalks forward for the full fight, bullying with his long-range attacks. In his last two bouts, he really demonstrated what a great chin he has, eating some powerful punches from Santos and Reyes and walking right through them.

I’m not sure if Blachowicz’s power will have much of an effect against Jones and with the champion constantly stalking the challenger, conditioning could play a major factor later in the fight. Although the odds on Blachowicz are enticing, I’m not sure it’s the bet to make.

Jon Jones vs Jan Blachowicz Betting Odds
Jon Jones-600
Jan Blachowicz+400

Odds as of February 18 at Bovada