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Jones vs Reyes Odds Analysis

Jones vs Reyes Odds Analysis

Jon “Bones” Jones, the light heavyweight champion and pound-for-pound best fighter in the UFC, is back in action on February 8 for UFC 247 at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. Looking to hand Jones his first legitimate loss and become the new champion is the undefeated Dominick “The Devastator” Reyes. The current champ, Jones, is a -450 favorite in this bout with Reyes coming back at +350.

Odds Analysis

It is no surprise to see Jones as a large favorite with that being the case ever since he smashed Stephan Bonnar way back at UFC 94. That was the last time Bones was an underdog and he has closed as a favorite of -400 or more 12 times since then. Similarly, this is the first time that Dominick Reyes will walk to the Octagon as an underdog. The Devastator is 6-0 in the UFC with four first-round finishes.

Jon Jones vs Dominick Reyes Betting Odds
FighterOdds
Jon Jones-450
Dominick Reyes+350

Odds as of November 30 at BetOnline

How Will This Fight Play Out?

Jon Jones has exceptional talent, rising through the ranks with his high-level wrestling that he would use to take his opponents down and before finishing them with nasty ground and pound. He has gotten some flak for looking unmotivated in some fights and fighting down to the level of his opponents. That said, it seems more like he is trying to beat his foes at their own game, namely striking, which is likely his weakest area – not that it’s bad at all. He is coming off a narrow split-decision win over Thiago Santos in which he stood with the knockout artist for five rounds.

As for Dominick Reyes, he has a lot of power in his hands and fantastic wrestling defense. He is stuffing 84 percent of takedown attempts but has been taken down four times in his last five fights. He’s very light on his feet, which allows him to close the distance quickly, land his powerful strikes and then get out of harm’s way. He does have a tendency to load up on his strikes and telegraph them a little bit, and when he does that, he tends to drop his trail hand and leave himself open for a counter.

I would love to see Jones go back to his wrestling style that we haven’t seen in a while. Reyes had a difficult time with Volkan Oezdemir’s forward pressure when the two met in March of last year, and Jones really bullied Santos in his last bout. I think there are some glaring holes in Reyes’ striking attack that Jones should be able to exploit, but he will have to be crisp or the Devastator could turn Bones’ lights out.