Jones vs Santos Odds Analysis

The UFC always brings a banger of a card for International Fight Week in July and this year is no different. The No. 2 pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC, Jon “Bones” Jones, will be headlining the UFC 239 card at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas as he defends his light heavyweight title against Thiago “Marreta” Santos. Jones is a -600 favorite to retain his belt with Santos coming back at +400.

Odds Analysis

The +400 line for Santos marks the first time he has been this big a dog since his second fight in the UFC back in 2014. Marreta closed as a +600 dog against Ronny Markes in that bout and needed just 53 seconds to knock him out and earn his backers a good chunk of change. Since moving up to light heavyweight, he is a perfect 3-0 with each fight ending via knockout.

Meanwhile, Jones has been a massive favorite in all of his fights. Most recently he was a -800 favorite against Anthony Smith and before that he was a -300 fave vs Alexander Gustafsson. Although the odds seem ridiculous, he backs it up with a 24-1 record and one no contest, with his only defeat being a disqualification from an illegal elbow against Matt Hamill in 2009.

You may think there’s value on Santos with his knockout power, but Jones is a master at maintaining range and distance from his opponents and picking them apart from afar. This will be key in this fight as well with Bones having an 8.5-inch reach advantage and I anticipate this to be a major factor in frustrating Marreta.

How Will this Fight Play Out?

As mentioned above, the reach advantage by Jones will be apparent when he throws his oblique kicks to Santos’ thigh and uses his long jabs. I anticipate Marreta to try to work his devastating kicks to slow down Bones’ movements, however, in doing so it leaves him vulnerable to being taken down. The light heavyweight champion averages 2.07 takedowns per 15 minutes and has six submission victories to his name and that’s how I expect Jones to approach this fight.