Calvin Kattar (left) is favored in the UFC: Kattar vs Allen odds

Kattar vs Allen Odds & Picks: Tight Odds In Ferocious Featherweight Showdown

After plenty of fun at UFC 280 over the weekend, the fight promotion returns to the Apex in Las Vegas on October 29, when featherweights Calvin Kattar (23-6) and Arnold Allen (18-1) will square off.

The showdown between Kattar, the fifth-ranked 145-pounder, and Allen, ranked sixth, will be a five-round main event at UFC Vegas 63. The prelims for that card begin at 4 p.m. ET, with the main card set to follow at 8 p.m.

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The Kattar vs Allen odds are very close. Sportsbook has Allen as the -114 favorite.

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Kattar vs Allen Odds & Betting Notes

Featherweight champ Alexander Volkanovski has the division’s belt tightly secured, but as he ponders a move to lightweight – he served as the 155-pound backup at UFC 280 – there’s plenty of room for movement in the middle tier of the 145-pound division. That’s where Allen and Kattar step up.

Kattar, one of the UFC’s purest, most aggressive boxers, has been in three straight violent fights vs Josh Emmett, Giga Chikadze and Max Holloway. The Massachusetts native came away with only one victory out of those three fights, cashing in as a +200 underdog vs Chikadze at UFC Vegas 46. 

The 28-year-old Allen is among the UFC’s best young stars. The Englishman has made his mark with nine consecutive victories to start his career. Allen’s most recent victory over Dan Hooker at UFC London in March awoke the fight world to “Almighty” and his abilities. Allen was near even at -120 vs Hooker and finished the Aussie via first-round knockout.

These are two of the most devastating featherweights on the roster, which is why the Kattar vs Allen odds are as tight as they get.

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs Allen Odds

Sportsbook lists Allen as the -114 favorite in the Kattar vs Allen odds, with Kattar as the narrow -107 underdog. The main event features the tightest odds of the day.

The largest underdog can be found on the first fight of the night, where bantamweights Joshua Weems (+300) and Christian Rodriguez (-420) square off. 

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs Allen Betting Odds & Fight Card

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs Allen Odds
  • Main Card
  • Featherweight – Calvin Kattar (-107) vs Arnold Allen (-114)
  • Welterweight – Max Griffin (-185) vs Tim Means (+151)
  • Light Heavyweight – Dustin Jacoby (-185) vs Khalil Rountree (+150)
  • Heavyweight – Waldo Cortes-Acosta (-200) vs Jared Vanderaa (+171)
  • Middleweight – Joshua Fremd (-165) vs Tresean Gore (+135)
  • Prelims
  • Heavyweight – Andrei Arlovski (+195) vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima (-250)
  • Featherweight – Chase Hooper (-325) vs Steve Garcia (+245)
  • Middleweight – Joseph Holmes (+185) vs Jun Yong Park (-230)
  • Middleweight – Roman Dolidze (+149) vs Phil Hawes (-175)
  • Bantamweight – Joshua Weems (+300) vs Christian Rodriguez (-420)

Odds as of October 29 at Sportsbook

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs Allen Broadcast Information
  • Date/Time: October 29, 4 p.m. ET
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Arena: UFC Apex
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass, Cable Provider


Calvin kattar vs Arnold allen Odds & Pick

Calvin Kattar-107
Arnold Allen-114

This will be Kattar’s fifth straight fight as an event headliner. In his last four fights, the American has alternated between the moderate favorite and the moderate underdog. He was a -240 favorite in his split-decision loss vs Josh Emmett at UFC Austin, but cashed out as the +200 ’dog in his unanimous-decision win over Chikadze at UFC Vegas 42. Kattar’s -105 status vs Allen gives him the tightest odds of his career since his matchup with Renato Moicano (-110) at UFC 223, which Kattar lost by decision. 

Like Kattar, Allen has alternated between favorite and underdog status in his UFC career. He’s been in four bouts where he faced odds of -150 or tighter and won all of them. His last two fights, against Hooker (-120) and Sodiq Yusuff (+115), were easily the most notable challenges of the Englishman’s career. The 28-year-old looked up to snuff in both those bouts as he held on to his undefeated UFC record. 

Our odds calculator estimates Allen’s -115 odds give him an implied win probability of 53.49 percent. That means a $10 bet on Allen pays out $18.70. For Kattar and his -105 odds, he has an implied win chance of 51.22 percent and a $10 bet on him pays out $19.52.

Kattar: Need to Knows
  • Kattar is an absolute bruiser. The 34-year-old never backs down from a vicious boxing match, but lately that style has worked against him. Overall, he lands punches at a good output (5.19 significant strikes per minute). The damage he receives, though, is devastating. Kattar’s 7.15 significant strikes absorbed per minute represents an alarmingly high number, indicating that his 54 percent significant strike defense isn’t cutting it. That rate is skewed largely thanks to Max Holloway utterly clobbering him at UFC on ABC 1 (Holloway landed a record 445 significant strikes), but Kattar has taken far too much damage lately. He’s never been knocked out, but the damage is building up. A fierce fighter such as Allen can take advantage of that. 
  • Part of the reason why Kattar’s fights also end up being slugfests is because he defends takedowns at a 91.3 percent clip, the best mark among active UFC featherweights. Allen isn’t an especially elite wrestler, but he relied on takedowns in some of his early UFC victories. Don’t expect any of that on Saturday, as Allen and Kattar will meet in the middle to duke it out.
  • Kattar’s last three fights have come against Emmett (loss – split decision), Chikadze (win – unanimous decision) and Holloway (loss – unanimous decision).
Allen: Need to Knows
  • Allen is an animal. During his first-round knockout of Hooker, he flashed some incredible speed with his left and right hooks, as well as excellent composure to land high kicks during scrambles. The tools are all there for Allen to demolish any opponent in a striking battle. The question now becomes: can Allen knock out Kattar for the first time in the American’s MMA career? Holloway couldn’t do it, even as he landed 274 significant strikes to Kattar’s head. Chikadze couldn’t put Kattar away either, nor could the heavy-handed Emmett. Allen holds the southpaw advantage over Kattar, which suggests he can out-strike the American. Knocking Kattar out will be a whole other challenge. 
  • As Allen marched toward Hooker and laid down a beating, the output took a toll on the Englishman. While he ultimately scored the TKO, “Almighty” needed to pause around halfway through the round to recover some stamina. His mouth hung open before he geared up for another onslaught in Hooker’s direction. This piqued my interest. As electric as Allen is, he doesn’t have any five-round UFC experience. Kattar has fought in four consecutive five-round bouts, all of which have gone the distance. As this fight goes on, I expect the advantage to tip in Kattar’s favor. The OVER 4.5 rounds line sits at -135. I expect that to hit, and I expect Kattar to hold a significant edge in the cardio department. 
  • The 28-year-old’s last three fights were against Hooker (win – technical knockout), Yusuff (win – unanimous decision) and Nik Lentz (win – unanimous decision).

Pick: Kattar (-105); OVER 4.5 Rounds (-150)

Max Griffin vs Tim Means Odds & Pick

Max Griffin-185
Tim Means+151

The co-main event of UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs Allen features a welterweight clash between Tim Means (32-13-1) and Max Griffin (18-9). 

Griffin: Need to Knows
  • Griffin is hardly an elite fighter (6-7 UFC record), but he has tangled with some notable opponents. “Pain” has shared the cage with Colby Covington, Mike Perry, Carlos Condit and most recently Neil Magny at UFC Columbus, where he lost by split decision. Griffin is a jittery, powerful fighter who loves quick-twitch kicks and straights to inflict punishment. The California native dropped Magny in the first round with a thunderous right hand but couldn’t secure the win, even though he edged Magny in the significant strike department 67-54. The 36-year-old is explosive on offense and has only been finished twice in his MMA career. 
  • Griffin opened as the -185 chalk vs Means. Griffin is 4-2 as the favorite in his UFC career, including a 3-0 record in his last three fights as the chalk. Means, a 10-year UFC veteran, has opened as an underdog just five times since 2012 and holds a 2-3 record in those bouts. 
  • Griffin’s last three opponents were Magny (loss – split decision), Condit (win – unanimous decision) and Kenan Song (win – knockout). 
Means: Need to Knows
  • “The Dirty Bird” is crafty. As a veteran of over 50 pro fights, he’s established a reputation as an old-school scrapper. Means can slug with the best – his 5.27 significant strikes per minute rank seventh among active welterweights. Lately, though, he has slowed a bit. At UFC Austin, Kevin Holland ended Means’ three-fight win streak with a submission victory. Holland looked much faster in that matchup and handed Means his sixth career submission loss. 
  • While Means has a weakness against submission, Griffin isn’t likely to go that route. It’s worth noting Holland rocked Means with a sharp right straight, which dropped into an easy submission. Griffin has that type of blistering power potential in his right hand, too. The way he dropped Magny showed how quickly he can change a fight. Griffin’s brutal KO of Kenan Song also exemplified how technical he can be when he gets his combos flowing. There’s value in this fight finishing inside the distance; it’s no lock, but a bet on UNDER 2.5 rounds (+135) doesn’t look too shabby. 
  • Means’ last three fights were against Holland (loss – submission), Nicholas Dalby (win – unanimous decision) and Mike Perry (win – unanimous decision).

Pick: Griffin (-185); UNDER 2.5 Rounds (+130)

Chase Hooper vs Steve Garcia Odds & Pick

Chase Hooper-325
Steve Garcia+245

MMA prospect Chase Hooper (11-2-1) makes his return to the Octagon in a prelim featherweight fight against Steve Garcia (12-5). 

Hooper: Need to Knows

  • At just 23 years old, Hooper is one of the youngest fighters on the UFC roster. His signing and subsequent emergence in the 145-pound division has made him a fan favorite on prelim cards. What has been lacking from Hooper, though, is steady improvement. The Washington native is 3-2 in the UFC (2-2 as the favorite) but hasn’t been able to pick up consecutive wins. 
  • Hooper has a grappling background. He’s shown off a penchant for submissions – he secured a last-minute heel-hook victory over Peter Barrett at UFC 256 after fighting lazily for 10 minutes – but the ground and pound might be where we see him succeed in this event. Hooper is always comfortable on his back, and at UFC Vegas 55 he rolled and rolled until he flattened out Felipe Colares for a TKO victory. This fight vs Garcia will end up on the mat, leaving it up to Hooper to secure a stoppage. 
  • Hooper’s last three fights have come against Colares (win – technical knockout), Steven Peterson (loss – unanimous decision) and Barrett (win – submission). 
Garcia: Need to Knows
  • Hooper is seven years younger than the 30-year-old Garcia, but “The Dream” has more UFC experience. After winning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series, Garcia is 1-2 in the UFC. His last bout at UFC 275 ended poorly, as he was on the receiving end of a brutal counterpunch knockout from Maheshate in the first round. It’s typical of Garcia to mix it up and even end up knocked down. Watch for this fight vs Hooper to start on the feet, where Garcia will push heavy pressure until Hooper lets the fight transition to the mat. The rhythm of the first round will likely determine if Garcia cashes as the underdog. 
  • Given Garcia’s willingness to engage and Hooper’s jiu-jitsu skill set, the sportsbooks are anticipating this fight ending UNDER 2.5 rounds (-155). I think this fight will include more striking and have a slower pace than people expect. Excluding the Maheshate fight on Garcia’s end, both guys have historically strong chins. Hooper is a slow starter, and his average fight time sits at 12:36. I think there’s value in betting this fight to go OVER 2.5 rounds (+120). 
  • Garcia’s last three fights came against Maheshate (loss – knockout), Charlie Ontiveros (win – technical knockout) and Luis Pena (loss – unanimous decision). 

Pick: Hooper (-275); OVER 2.5 Rounds (+120)


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