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Lesnar Best Bet in UFC 121

If you want to take advantage of the best line you’re likely to see on the UFC Heavyweight champion for the next couple of years, get in on the -160 UFC 121 odds being offered on Brock Lesnar (5-1) against Cain Velasquez (8-0) this Saturday night.

As we periodically see, the hype around a UFC championship fight is bigger than it should be, and the lines are a bit skewed because of that fact.

At only +130, the reward on Velasquez is not big enough to justify betting against a champion who continues to improve every time we see him enter the Octagon. (It's even less at Bovada, where money on the challenger has lowered Lesnar's odds to -145 as of Friday).

Lesnar is a better wrestler, a more powerful striker, and will outweigh Velasquez by as much as 50 pounds by fight time. This fight will have one theme, however long it lasts; the Death Clutch of Brock Lesnar.

ADVERTISEMENT: Velasquez has never lost, but they said the same about Shane Carwin - Lesnar is favored but not by much and he is great UFC betting value at shops such as Bovada Saturday. Check it out.

The co-main event at UFC 121 will be the Octagon debut of former Strikeforce Middleweight champion Jake Shields (25-4-1). Shields will be a -215 favorite against a nasty Martin Kampmann (17-3) who might be worth the risk at +175, considering that Shields will be taking a very big step up in competition.

Shields has been fighting all comers in Strikeforce, but the best fighters in the world are in the UFC. Yes, he recently dominated Dan Henderson, but that achievement doesn’t mean what it once did, considering “Hendo” is 5-4 in his last nine. Look for Kampmann to spoil Shields’ show as the upset pick on the card.

For some reason, Zuffa will force MMA fans to watch Tito Ortiz (15-7-1) in another boring fight against another boring wrestler. Matt Hamill (10-2) will be a -170 favorite against the over-the-hill Ortiz. Ortiz will pay +140 for the upset, and could go away for good after he loses via unanimous decision.

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In a Heavyweight matchup Gabriel Gonzaga (15-7-1) will get his last chance to stay relevant in the division against Brendon Schaub (6-1). This fight is a classic up-and-comer against an opponent who seems to be on the way out, and that often means things could go either way.

Gonzaga has only lost to elite fighters in the past, and should be safe cash at -160. Schaub would look tempting at +130, but Roy Nelson showed us all that he doesn’t take a shot very well. Gonzaga with a first-round TKO.

Rounding out the main card is Diego Sanchez (24-4-0) in a Welterweight bout against Paulo Thiago (13-2). Thiago will be the -130 favorite against “The Nightmare”, who will pay even-money. Sanchez has only lost to the best in the world, and Thiago has lost to fighters with similar styles to Sanchez.

UFC 121 Odds courtesy of Bovada, home of 140% in free cash bonuses.

2101     Cain Velasquez        +115           
2102     Brock Lesnar           -145           

2103     Martin Kampmann   +160           
2104     Jake Shields            -200           

2105    Tito Ortiz                +140           
2106     Matt Hamill             -170           

2107     Diego Sanchez        +100           
2108     Paulo Thiago           -130           

2109     Brendan Schaub      +135           
2110     Gabriel Gonzaga      -165           

2111     Patrick Cote            -180           
2112     Tom Lawlor             +150           

2113     Paul Taylor              +175           
2114     Sam Stout               -220           

2115     Court McGee          -260           
2116     Ryan Jensen           +200           

2117     Daniel Roberts          -145           
2118     Mike Guymon           +115           

2119     Dongi Yang              -115           
2120     Chris Camozzi          -115           

2121     Jon Madsen              -230           
2122     Gilbert Yvel              +180