With four title fights contested over the last three weeks, we return to a little bit of a normal card this weekend with likely a No. 1 contender fight between former featherweight champion Max Holloway and Yair Rodriguez.
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Rodriguez is happening Saturday at the UFC Apex Center in Las Vegas, with the prelims beginning at 1 p.m. ET. At the top of the bill in the Holloway vs Rodriguez odds, the former champ is heavily favored.
Sportsbook
Although Holloway has lost two of his last three fights, those defeats came in razor-thin decisions to the current champ, Alexander Volkanovski. His win came over Calvin Kattar in January when he set a UFC record for most strikes landed in a fight.
Meanwhile, this marks the return to the Octagon for Yair Rodriguez, who has been inactive for over two years while dealing with a plethora of injuries. In his last appearance, Rodriguez earned a unanimous-decision win over Jeremy Stephens in a back-and-forth affair.
Holloway vs Rodriguez Odds
Online sportsbook Sportsbook has the Holloway vs Rodriguez betting odds with Max listed as the -700 chalk and Yair the +450 underdog option. This means that you would have to lay $700 to profit $100 with a Holloway winning bet while a $100 winning wager on Rodriguez would net you $450.
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We can examine the betting odds from a different perspective with our sports betting calculator. There you can see that Holloway’s -700 odds represent an implied win probability of 87.50 percent while Rodriguez has an implied win probability of 18.18 percent based on his odds.
If you’re looking to add the biggest favorite to your card for a parlay piece or conversely the biggest underdog in the UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Rodriguez odds, you would be looking at the main event with Max the favorite and Yair the underdog. On the flip side, if you are looking to try your hand at the fight with the tightest odds, Jung Da Un is favored at -115 in the prelim light heavyweight bout over Kennedy Nzechukwu (-105).
Holloway vs Rodriguez Betting Odds & Fight Card
- Main Card
- Featherweight – Max Holloway (-700) vs Yair Rodriguez (+450)
- Heavyweight – Ben Rothwell (-170) vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima (+140)
- Women’s Featherweight – Felicia Spencer (-350) vs Leah Letson (+265)
- Welterweight -- Miguel Baeza (-140) vs Khaos Williams (+115)
- Bantamweight – Song Yadong (-140) vs Julio Arce (+115)
- Prelims
- Lightweight – Thiago Moises (-265) vs Joel Alvarez (+210)
- Women’s Flyweight – Cynthia Calvillo (-140) vs Andrea Lee (+115)
- Featherweight – Sean Woodson (-350) vs Collin Anglin (+265)
- Women’s Flyweight – Cortney Casey (-285) vs Liana Jojua (+225)
- Lightweight – Marc Diakiese (-230) vs Rafael Alves (+185)
- Light Heavyweight – Kennedy Nzechukwu (-105) vs Jung Da Un (-115)
Is there a fight that you’re looking to wager on but you don’t know what to do? Check out our How to Bet UFC page to get in on the action. Another helpful resource is our sportsbook review page that can assist you in choosing where to bet on the UFC. Lastly, you can see our UFC odds page for the latest betting lines, and all of your UFC fight news lives here.
- Date/Time: November 13, 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
- Arena: UFC Apex
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
Sportsbook
Max Holloway vs Yair Rodriguez Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Max Holloway | -700 |
| Yair Rodriguez | +450 |
As mentioned, Max “Blessed” Holloway (-700) had two close decision losses to Volkanovski, the second being a split which people believe he won and consequently is the uncrowned champion. As for Yair “El Pantera” Rodriguez (+450), he has been considered championship material for a while, but inactivity has stalled his career.
- Since 2014, Holloway has been nearly unstoppable with a record of 15-3 and those defeats being decisions in title fights against Dustin Poirier and Alexander Volkanovski. Overall, his record is 22-6 with 12 stoppages, including 10 knockouts, while he has been submitted once.
- Blessed holds the record for most strikes landed in a fight with 447, which is 86 more than the second-best mark. He also has the record for most strikes landed in a career with 2,805, just over 200 more than Georges St-Pierre.
- Max is an outstanding striker with elite conditioning. During his rise in the rankings and when he had his title run, it was his boxing that stood out. However, in his rematch with Volkanovski, he started mixing in kicks, even dropping the champ with a head kick.
- Conditioning is important not only due to the volume of his output, but also because that puts him in the line of fire often. He absorbs shots coming back at him with ease.
- Holloway’s last three fights were Alexander Volkanovski (loss – unanimous decision), Alexander Volkanovski (loss – split decision) and Calvin Kattar (win – unanimous decision).
- Rodriguez made his UFC debut in 2014 when he was 22 and has just one blemish in the Octagon – a doctor’s stoppage loss to Frankie Edgar. His record stands at 13-2 with one no contest. His two losses came by T/KO while seven of his wins are finishes, including four knockouts.
- You might say Holloway is a more conventional striker whereas Rodriguez is anything but. This was especially apparent in his first five-round bout against the Korean Zombie when he landed an upward elbow that knocked out the Zombie in the last second of the fight to win knockout of the year.
- El Pantera will hold his ground when under pressure and fires big hooks to back his opponents away or looks to grapple. At distance, Yair is at his best throwing a lot of kicks and spinning attacks.
- At times, he will rush in on his opponents with his hands low and he can be countered; he’s at his most dangerous when at a longer distance. We also saw Rodriguez slow and appear tired as his last fight progressed into the third round.
- Rodriguez’s last three fights were Korean Zombie (win – knockout), Jeremy Stephens (no contest) and Jeremy Stephens (win – unanimous decision).
Prediction: Max Holloway (-700) via knockout
Ben Rothwell vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ben Rothwell | -170 |
| Marcos Rogerio de Lima | +140 |
Ben Rothwell (-170) looks to close out 2021 with two wins in the year after scoring a submission victory over Chris Barnett in May. Similarly, Marcos “Pezao” Rogerio de Lima (+140) is hoping to snap his win-one, lose-one streak he’s been on over the last 11 fights and had a win in his last outing.
- Rothwell has been around the fight game for a long time, making his pro debut in January 2001 and his UFC debut in 2009. He carries a 39-13 record with 35 stoppages, including 28 knockouts. He has been stopped six times, four by T/KO.
- Ben is a large, lumbering, intimidating heavyweight, standing six-foot-four and tipping the scale at the maximum 265 pounds. While he mostly keeps the fight standing, he does have a nasty guillotine choke if his opponents try to take him down.
- On the feet, Rothwell tends to stalk forward, cutting the cage off well with his right hand cocked and ready to close the show. If his opponents have a speed advantage, he will typically clinch and weigh on his foes against the cage.
- Rothwell’s last three fights were Ovince Saint Preux (win – split decision), Marcin Tybura (loss – unanimous decision) and Chris Barnett (win – submission).
- Rogerio de Lima began his UFC career with back-to-back wins but hasn’t had consecutive wins or losses since. He is 18-7-1 with 13 knockout wins and five submission losses.
- During his win-one, lose-one streak, he’s looked great when keeping the fight on the feet, but the five losses over that span have all been submissions. He averages 3.24 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 2.11, but for some reason he mixes in 1.14 takedowns per 15 minutes as well, including three in his last bout.
- Marcos is very fast for his size and throws bombs at his opponents, though as I alluded to in the previous section, his fight IQ may be lacking. He has great kicks and huge punches that are crisp and accurate in the pocket.
- Rogerio de Lima’s last three fights were Ben Sosoli (win – knockout), Alexander Romanov (loss – submission) and Maurice Greene (win – unanimous decision).
Prediction: Marcos Rogerio de Lima (+140) via decision
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Felicia Spencer vs Leah Letson Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Felicia Spencer | -350 |
| Leah Letson | +265 |
We haven’t seen Leah “Nidas” Letson (+265) since November 2018 due to health concerns that left her sidelined after her UFC debut. Meanwhile, Felicia “FeeNom” Spencer (-350) looks to snap her first-ever losing skid, having dropped her last two fights.
- Spencer has lost three of her last four fights, but two of those came against world champions Cris Cyborg and Amanda Nunes. Her record is 8-3 with six stoppage wins, including four submissions. All of her losses have come by decision.
- FeeNom’s striking is certainly not her strong suit. Though she has tremendous resiliency, she lacks power and setups to make her a big threat. Felicia averages 3.05 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.32.
- She does her best work grappling, with tremendous top control that leads to submission attempts or aggressive ground and pound. The problem lies in the fact that she secures only 10 percent of her takedown attempts.
- Spencer’s last three fights were Zarah Fairn dos Santos (win – knockout), Amanda Nunes (loss – unanimous decision) and Norma Dumont (loss – split decision).
- While Letson has been inactive, she does head into this bout on a five-fight winning streak. She holds a 5-1 record with three knockout wins while her lone defeat was a split decision in her pro debut.
- Nidas is an aggressive fighter, taking the center of the cage and looking to get in a striking exchange. She has a really sharp left hand, often disguising it well behind her right jab. She will also throw kicks at distance but doesn’t land them too often.
- Letson’s last three fights were Sarah Payant (win – knockout), Elizabeth Phillips (win – knockout) and Julija Toliarenko (win – split decision).
Prediction: Felicia Spencer (-350) via decision
Miguel Baeza vs Khaos Williams Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Miguel Baeza | -140 |
| Khaos Williams | +115 |
On the heels of his first career loss, Miguel "Caramel Thunder" Baeza (-150) looks to get back in the win column on Saturday. Khaos Williams (+115) had a similar situation, seeing his eight-fight winning streak snapped in December of 2020 but rebounded with a win in June.
- Baeza earned a UFC contract in Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series in 2019 and had three straight finishes prior to his aforementioned loss. He is now 10-1 with eight stoppages including seven knockouts and his lone defeat was a decision.
- Caramel Thunder is primarily a striker, though, he does mix in 0.57 takedowns per 15 minutes. On the feet, he has a high output of 5.30 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.09.
- He is a sharp fighter with very few holes in his game. His leg kicks are accurate and powerful and he uses them to set up his hands which he always begins with a jab which is followed by his powerful right. At times he struggles to fight off his back foot.
- Baeza's last three fights were Matt Brown (win - knockout), Takashi Sato (win - submission) and Santiago Ponzinibbio (loss - unanimous decision).
- Williams needed less than a minute to win his first two UFC fights combined but in his first to go the distance he lost. Overall, he's 12-2 with seven stoppages, including six knockouts and his losses have been decisions.
- Khaos has big power with his UFC debut lasting 27 seconds and his follow-up performance going longer at 30 seconds. Five of his six knockouts have come in the first round.
- He's long for the division with a 77-inch reach, averaging 5.20 significant strikes per minute and absorbing only 3.59. He does a good job blitzing his opponents for counters, instead of one shot, he throws three or four after his foes throw a strike.
- Williams's last three fights were Abdul Razak Alhassan (win - knockout), Michel Pereira (loss - unanimous decision) and Matthew Semeslberger (win - unanimous decision).
Prediction: Miguel Baeza (-150) via decision
Song Yadong vs Julio Arce Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Song Yadong | -140 |
| Julio Arce | +115 |
Two fighters looking for back-to-back wins will open the main card. Julio Arce (+115) had nearly 20 months off during the pandemic but returned with a knockout win in July. His opponent, Song Yadong (-140), has been more active, going 1-1 already this year and coming off a win over Casey Kenney.
- It is crazy to think that this is Yadong’s ninth fight in the UFC and he’s still only 23 years old. His record stands at 17-5-1 with one no contest, having been stopped once by knockout. He has nine finishes, including six knockouts.
- Song is a versatile fighter, showing off his wrestling skills earlier in his career and landing three takedowns in his first three UFC fights. But he hasn’t secured a takedown since and has been brought to the floor 11 times over his last four.
- On the feet, he is a handful with great footwork, he’s exceptionally fast darting in and out of danger, and he has lightning-fast hands. He has good power in those strikes and his fight IQ at such a young age is also impressive, capitalizing on his opponents’ weaknesses.
- Yadong’s last three fights were Marlon Vera (win – unanimous decision), Kyler Phillips (loss – unanimous decision) and Casey Kenney (win – split decision).
- A pair of split-decision losses are the only thing that separates Arce from being perfect inside the Octagon. In his pro career, he carries a 17-4 record with one stoppage defeat, a submission. Ten of his wins have been finishes (five knockouts, five submissions).
- Arce primarily keeps the fight standing, averaging just 0.52 takedowns per 15 minutes while stuffing 93 percent of attempts against. On the feet, the southpaw averages 4.31 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.94.
- He does a tremendous job hiding his leg kicks by moving forward, feinting with his hands, or even throwing to distract, and then firing his heavy leg kicks. I also like that he will stand in the pocket, absorb a shot and then counter heavily.
- Arce’s last three fights were Julian Erosa (win – knockout), Hakeem Dawodu (loss – split decision) and Andre Ewell (win – knockout).
Prediction: Song Yadong (-135) via decision
Sportsbook
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Rodriguez Best Bets
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Featherweight – Max Holloway | -700 |
| Heavyweight – Marcos Rogerio de Lima | +140 |
| Women’s Featherweight – Felicia Spencer | -350 |
| Welterweight -- Miguel Baeza | -140 |
| Bantamweight – Song Yadong | -140 |
