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McGregor vs Cerrone Betting Odds Analysis

Perhaps the biggest name in the UFC, Conor “Notorious” McGregor, is making his much-anticipated return at UFC 246 on January 18 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The former “champ champ” is taking on fan favorite Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone in the main event. McGregor is a -310 favorite at Bovada with Cerrone coming back at +240.

Be sure to check out my preview and picks page for UFC 246 and if you’re looking to see how to bet on McGregor vs Cerrone, we also have an article on that.

Also, for reasonings on how each fighter will win this fight, I have broken down the three reasons why Cerrone will win, while Iain McMillan has provided his three reasons why McGregor will win.

What are the Odds for McGregor vs Cerrone?

This will be the first time that McGregor has entered the Octagon since his fourth-round submission loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 229 in October 2018. Notorious hasn’t earned a victory since he became a two-division champion with his second-round knockout win over Eddie Alvarez in November 2016. 

A -325 favorite? Sure, if you consider McGregor’s name recognition and striking ability and pretend he’s won his last few bouts. This line seems like it would be more appropriate if the fight were at the lightweight level but with it taking place in welterweight, the former “champ champ” is a little overvalued. 

Meanwhile, Cowboy (+250) is coming off back-to-back losses to arguably two of the hardest hitters in the lightweight division. Cerrone lost by doctor stoppage against Tony Ferguson in June and suffered a first-round knockout loss to Justin Gaethje in September. I’m a little surprised to see Cowboy as a bigger underdog to McGregor than he was against Ferguson or Gaethje as I think he poses a bigger threat to McGregor than he did to the other two. Additionally, this fight is at welterweight, which I believe gives the edge to Cerrone as well.

Conor McGregor vs Donald Cerrone Betting Odds
Conor McGregor-335
Donald Cerrone+255

Odds as of January 16 at Bovada

How Will This Fight Play Out?

McGregor has outstanding striking with pinpoint accuracy and tremendous fight IQ. The Ireland native does a lot of research before a fight to learn his opponent’s tendencies and then sets traps in the bout to capitalize on those habits. His step-back counter left straight is the best in the UFC and has led to many knockouts. McGregor’s biggest flaw is his conditioning, and we have seen him gas out in the Nate Diaz fights and the Nurmagomedov fight.

Cerrone is very well-rounded with very good striking and submission skills. This is evident in his record (36-13) with 10 wins coming by knockout and 17 by submission. Cowboy does have a tendency to get hit frequently and has been hurt by body shots in the past. He can also lose a little bit of focus due to his ego, sometimes getting a little too aggressive when he wants to prove he’s a badass.

Which Fighter has the Most Betting Value?

I anticipate McGregor will have a noticeable advantage on the feet as he will likely be quicker and will be able to set traps for Cerrone. However, Cowboy will have a big advantage on the floor, with McGregor being submitted in two of his last four fights. I was very surprised to see this fight taking place at welterweight – I think that gives Cerrone a slight edge as he’s the bigger man physically. Because of the versatility and the size difference, Cowboy is providing the better value.