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UFC: McGregor vs Diaz III Odds Analysis

Conor McGregor dodging a punch from Nate Diaz

The biggest star in the UFC, Conor “Notorious” McGregor, made his return to the Octagon in January, making short work of Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone by stopping the veteran in just 40 seconds. It appears the former “champ champ” could still be in for a very active and exciting 2020, with McGregor suggesting earlier this year that it could include three or four fights.

McGregor recently went on a social media tirade, taking shots at many in the lightweight division including the champ, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and the interim champ, Justin Gaethje.

That said, it appears those two champs will be colliding later this year, leaving McGregor without an opponent, but a rubber match trilogy with Nate Diaz may be the most likely outcome.

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Online sportsbook Bovada has released odds on the potential trilogy fight, with McGregor set as a -250 favorite and Diaz coming back at +195.

Conor McGregor vs Nate Diaz Betting Odds
FighterOdds
Conor McGregor-250
Nate Diaz+195

Odds as of May 13 at Bovada

Be sure to check out our UFC odds page for the latest up-to-date betting lines.

McGregor vs Diaz Odds Analysis

Seeing Conor McGregor as chalk in this fight is not surprising. What is surprising is how short his odds are. In the rematch of this fight, Notorious dropped Diaz several times en route to a majority-decision win. McGregor was a -450 favorite in the first bout of this trilogy and -135 the second time around. Through 12 UFC fights, the Irishman has been favored in 10, holding a record of 10-2 over that duration.

You have to go all the way back to April 2013 to find Nate Diaz as a favorite, closing at -155 vs Josh Thomson – a fight in which he was stopped in the second round. That means that the Stockton native has been an underdog in seven straight fights, holding a record of 4-3 over that span.

How Will This Fight Play Out?

McGregor is a ferocious striker with pinpoint accuracy and real knockout power. His long southpaw stance creates many issues for opponents to decipher and before they can figure it out, they are on their backs staring up at the lights, with 16 of his 26 fights ending in the first round. In his win over Cerrone, he was extremely aggressive, using effective shoulder strikes and head kicks running right through Cowboy.

Diaz is a war of attrition style of fighter. He doesn’t pose a huge threat with his hands, lacking one-punch knockout power, but his conditioning is second to none, allowing him to wear on his opponents and win later on. With his conditioning comes a fantastic chin as well, having only been knocked out once in his pro career – the Josh Thomson defeat. The Stockton representative also has outstanding BJJ which accounts for 11 of his 20 pro wins ending via submission.

Nate has absorbed quite a bit of damage through his last three fights – McGregor, Anthony Pettis and Jorge Masvidal. The latter opened up a bad cut on Diaz leading to a doctor’s stoppage. I think McGregor is as focused as ever to reclaim his lightweight belt as well as to battle for the welterweight strap. His striking is better than Diaz’s and I don’t anticipate an epic finale to the trilogy but rather a one-sided affair.