UFC Fight Night Argentina: Magny vs Ponzinibbio Betting Odds

UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Ponzinibbio Betting Odds and Picks

On the week that the UFC is celebrating its 25-year anniversary, it continues to expand as the Octagon will be set up for the first time in Argentina for UFC Fight Night Buenos Aires. The card is headlined with a bout in the welterweight division as Neil Magny takes on Santiago “Gente Boa” Ponzinibbio. The No. 8 welterweight, Magny, is a +245 underdog with the No. 10 welterweight, Ponzinibbio, coming back at -315. I have a breakdown and pick for each fight on the main card for UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Ponzinibbio.

Shark Bites
  • Santiago Ponzinibbio is on a six-fight winning streak.
  • Neil Magny averages 2.83 takedowns per three-round fight.
  • Santiago Ponzinibbio has finished 20 of his 26 professional wins.
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Odds Analysis of the main event

This is the fifth time in Ponzinibbio’s last six fights that he has been a favorite, winning all six of those fights, three by T/KO and three by decision. Magny has been a dog in two of his last three fights, splitting those bouts, earning a decision victory over Carlos Condit while falling via submission to Rafael dos Anjos. It’s not surprising to see Ponzinibbio as a favorite, though it is a little shocking to see how much of a favorite he is, considering he hasn’t fought in nearly a year. I anticipate this line to shift in Magny’s favor the closer we get to the bout, providing much more value on Gente Boa.

Neil Magny vs Santiago Ponzinibbio

Ponzinibbio (-315) is a superb striker who has a good ability to judge distance and punish his opponents with his heavy hands. The Argentina native is on a six-fight winning streak, with his most recent victory being a three-round unanimous-decision triumph over Mike Perry in December of last year. Gente Boa was supposed to headline the UFC Chile card in May against Kamaru Usman but suffered a hand injury that required surgery. Ponzinibbio is an aggressive fighter who averages 4.23 significant strikes per minute and defends 62 percent of strikes against.

Magny (+245) is an always evolving fighter who is starting to really figure out how to use his long reach. The New York native has an 80-inch reach which is seven inches more than Ponzinibbio. He is on a two-fight winning streak of his own and most recently earned a first-round knockout victory over Craig White in May. When Magny finds his range and starts to feel comfortable, he can smother his opponents with his pace, which was on full display when he outstruck Hector Lombard 196-75 in March of 2016. Seven of his 21 professional victories have come by T/KO, but he only has two knockout wins in his last nine bouts.

Magny is really going to have to use his long reach to keep Ponzinibbio off of him if he wants to find any success. Look for him to use that lower-leg kick to throw off Ponzinibbio’s movement. Meanwhile, I expect Gente Boa to bite down on his mouthguard and go right at Magny, looking to give him his second knockout loss in his career and first since he was knocked out by Lorenz Larkin at UFC 202.

Prediction: Santiago Ponzinibbio (-315) via knockout

Ponzinibbio vs Magny Fight Center

Ricardo Lamas vs Darren Elkins

Lamas (-205) looks to bust out of his first-ever two-fight losing streak, getting knocked out by Josh Emmett last December, followed by a split-decision defeat to Mirsad Bektic at UFC 225. The Bully has sneaky power mixed with a solid ground game, finishing 10 of his 18 professional victories, five by knockout and five by submission. The former featherweight championship challenger has a tough time stuffing takedowns, defending just 47 percent of attempts, but he works well off his back. This could be an issue against a tough wrestler like Elkins.

Elkins (+165) had his six-fight winning streak come to an end in July when he lost a unanimous decision to Alexander Volkanovski. Prior to that loss, he was tearing through the featherweight division, with his last three wins coming against Mirsad Bektic, Dennis Bermudez and Michael Johnson, including performance of the night bonuses vs Bektic and Johnson. The Damage is a solid wrestler who has an aggressive ground and pound that leads to TKOs or submissions. The 34-year-old has great cardio that was on display when he landed five takedowns vs Godofredo Pepy and outstruck Pepy 206-67.

It is confusing to see Lamas this much of a favorite, having lost his last two fights, including to a guy that Elkins knocked out (Mirsad Bektic). The path to victory for the Bully is putting Elkins to sleep in the standup, but that hasn’t been done since Chad Mendes did so in 2013. Meanwhile, if the Damage can drag Lamas to the mat, he’s in for a long night.

Prediction: Darren Elkins (+165) via decision

Lamas vs Elkins Fight Center

Khalil Rountree Jr. vs Johnny Walker

Rountree Jr. (-225) is unbeaten in his last four fights, with three of those wins coming via knockout while the other was a no contest against Michal Oleksiejczuk at UFC 219 after Oleksiejczuk tested positive for a banned substance following the bout. Most recently, The War Horse earned a first-round TKO win over kickboxing standout Gokhan Saki at UFC 226. Five of Rountree’s seven professional victories have come via first-round knockout. The 28-year-old has not had a takedown in the UFC, but has been taken down 10 times through six fights, and was submitted once.

Walker (+175) is making his Octagon debut and matches his counterpart with true knockout power. The Brazil native has finished 13 of his 14 professional victories, 11 by knockout, including eight in the first round. Most recently, he beat former UFC fighter Henrique da Silva in Dana White’s Contender Series Brazil, earning a unanimous-decision victory, the first of his career. He landed his only takedown attempt vs da Silva and attempted three submissions on the floor, while in the striking department he averaged 5.4 significant strikes per minute, landing 68 percent of his strikes.

If Rountree can’t stuff Walker’s takedowns, he could be in trouble. However, the Brazil native has been knocked out twice in his career and his chin will definitely be tested against The War Horse as he has a terrific ability to find clean shots and turn the switch off on his opponents. Walker has good momentum heading into this fight, though, winning his last six fights.

Prediction: Khalil Rountree Jr. (-225) via knockout

Rountree Jr. vs Walker Fight Center

Cezar Ferreira vs Ian Heinisch

Ferreira (-200) is a dangerous submission artist who has won five of his last six bouts, with his most recent triumph being a first-round arm triangle against Karl Roberson. Mutante has terrific wrestling and lands 63 percent of his takedown attempts, averaging 2.73 takedowns per 15 minutes. He has dragged his last seven opponents to the mat at least once in their fights, and five of those foes got taken down at least two times. Additionally, he defends 93 percent of takedown attempts, dictating when he wants the fight to hit the floor.

Heinisch (+160) puts his three-fight winning streak on the line when he makes his Octagon debut. Each of his wins during this streak have been by knockout, including a first-round triumph over Justin Sumter in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series that earned him a contract in the UFC. The Hurricane is taking this fight on short notice after Tom Breese pulled out due to an injury last week, so it’ll be interesting to see how compromised Heinisch may be having to do a quick weight cut or whether he walks around near fight weight.

Four of Ferreira’s six professional losses have been by knockout so he will have to do his best to get Heinisch to the mat to avoid his power. Meanwhile, the Hurricane’s only loss has come via submission when he was choked out by Markus Perez just over a year ago and if this fight hits the floor, he is in immediate danger with Mutante’s jiu-jitsu game. I think the biggest factor in this bout is Heinisch’s weight cut and how that may affect his energy.

Prediction: Cezar Ferreira (-200) via submission

Ferreira vs Heinisch Fight Center

Guido Cannetti vs Marlon Vera

Vera (-335) brought his two-fight losing skid to an end in his last fight at UFC 227 when he earned a second-round knockout over Wuliji Buren. Prior to that victory, he had back-to-back unanimous-decision losses to John Lineker and Douglas Silva de Andrade, his loss to Lineker snapping a three-fight winning streak. The 25-year-old has been straying away from his dangerous ground game recently, electing to work on his striking skills after he was outstruck by a combined total of 192-125 in the two back-to-back defeats, but he outstruck Buren 59-49 at UFC 227.

Cannetti (+255) has been on a win-one, lose-one streak since joining the UFC in 2014, going on a three-year hiatus and returning to the Octagon in January of this year. Ninja is a solid striker with powerful kicks, but gets away from them sometimes and elects to drag fights to the mat. This decision isn’t always a good one as all three of his professional defeats have come via submission. This was evident when he was submitted via triangle choke against Kyung Ho Kang in January of this year.

This is a big step up in competition for Cannetti and he is going to have his hands full with a younger, faster Vera. I anticipate Chito to keep the fight standing to show off his always improving striking, knowing that if Ninja elects to take this bout to the mat he can utilize his elite submission skills. This is my favorite lock of the card.

Prediction: Marlon Vera (-335) via knockout

Vera vs Cannetti Fight Center

Cynthia Calvillo vs Poliana Botelho

Botelho (-155) is looking to extend her five-fight winning streak, including two inside the UFC. The Brazil native has won four of those bouts via knockout and six of her seven professional wins have come via T/KO. The 29-year-old has a good balance between punches and kicks, which makes her a very difficult opponent to mount any offense against. In her lone win that went to the judges’ decision, she outstruck Pearl Gonzalez 157-89, while also landing her one and only takedown attempt inside the Octagon. Her last fight vs Syuri Kondo lasted just 33 seconds before a TKO finish.

Calvillo (+125) is coming off her first career loss and a nine-month suspension for failing a drug test for marijuana. The 31-year-old lost via unanimous decision vs former strawweight champion Carla Esparza in a close bout. Calvillo was 6-0 before that scrap, earning two wins via knockout, two by submission and two by decision with two of her three UFC wins being submissions. The California native has earned a takedown in each of her four UFC bouts, landing 50 percent of her attempts where she works toward a fight-ending submission.

This is a classic striker vs grappler bout that is super intriguing. Calvillo’s wrestling and grappling game is elite and if she can drag Botelho to the mat, she has a decisive advantage. However, every round starts on the feet and the momentum swings in Botelho’s favor. Both girls have only lost by decision so it’ll be interesting to see how each counteracts her opponent’s game plan.

Prediction: Cynthia Calvillo (+125) via decision

Botelho vs Calvillo Fight Center

Here’s a look at all the odds for the entire UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Ponzinibbio card:

UFC Fight Night: Neil Magny vs Santiago Ponzinibbio
  • Santiago Ponzinibbio -315
  • Neil Magny +245
Odds as of November 13 at Sportsbook
  • Ricardo Lamas -205
  • Darren Elkins +165
  • Khalil Rountree Jr. -225
  • Johnny Walker +175
  • Cezar Ferreira -200
  • Ian Heinisch +160
  • Marlon Vera -335
  • Guido Cannetti +255
  • Poliana Botelho -155
  • Cynthia Calvillo +125
  • Michel Prazeres -190
  • Bartosz Fabinski +155
  • Alexandre Pantoja -375
  • Ulka Sasaki +285
  • Humberto Bandenay -265
  • Austin Arnett +205
  • Laureano Staropoli -110
  • Hector Aldana -120
  • Jesus Pinedo -210
  • Devin Powell +170
  • Nad Narimani -305
  • Anderson Dos Santos +270
Santiago Ponzinibbio is on a six-fight winning streak.home Neil Magny averages 2.83 takedowns per three-round fight.away Santiago Ponzinibbio has finished 20 of his 26 professional wins.home
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