Brian Ortega (left) is favored in the Ortega vs Rodriguez odds.

Ortega vs Rodriguez Odds & Predictions: Ortega Favored In Featherweight Battle

Highly ranked featherweights aiming to solidify their positions as championship contenders clash this weekend when Brian Ortega takes on Yair Rodriguez in the main event at UFC on ABC 3.

Prelim action at UFC Long Island is set to get underway on Saturday, July 16, at 11 a.m. ET at UBS Arena in Elmont, New York, with the main card scheduled for an early 2 p.m. start. Perched at No. 2 in the UFC featherweight rankings, Brian Ortega opens the week as the favorite on the UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs Rodriguez odds.

You can check out UFC odds among other betting markets at Sportsbook:


Brian Ortega vs Yair Rodriguez Notes

Ortega returns to the Octagon for the first time since dropping a unanimous decision to Alexander Volkanovski in a failed bid for the UFC featherweight title last September at UFC 266. Ortega has fought just three times over the past 52 months, with his lone victory over that span coming against The Korean Zombie at UFC Fight Island in October 2020.

Rodriguez has also been idle since falling to Max Holloway by unanimous decision last November at UFC Vegas 42. “El Pantera” has maintained control of the No. 3 spot in the UFC featherweight rankings despite earning just two wins in five outings since January 2017.

Ortega vs Rodriguez Odds

Online sportsbook Sportsbook has Ortega listed as a -170 favorite on the UFC Long Island odds, while Rodriguez lags as a +140 underdog.

Ortega’s -170 odds translate to an implied win probability of 62.96 percent, while Rodriguez’s +140 odds translate to an implied win probability of 41.67 percent.

UFC Long Island betting fans looking to cash in on the biggest underdog of the night should keep a close eye on the co-main event of the evening, where Michelle Waterson sports lengthy +250 odds in her date with fellow women’s strawweight Amanda Lemos.

Bet On Ortega vs Rodriguez Here

A light heavyweight clash on the prelim card features the tightest odds, with Dustin Jacoby listed as -130 chalk against Da Un Jung, who lags as a +100 bet.

Ortega vs Rodriguez Betting Odds & Fight Card

Ortega vs Rodriguez Betting Lines And Fight Card
  • Main Card
  • Featherweight – Brian Ortega (-170) vs Yair Rodriguez (+140)
  • Women’s Strawweight – Michelle Waterson (+250) vs Amanda Lemos (-350)
  • Welterweight – Jingliang Li (+145) vs Muslim Salikhov (-175)
  • Flyweight – Matthew Schnell (+200) vs Sumudaerji (-260)
  • Featherweight – Shane Burgos (-170) vs Charles Jourdain (+140)
  • Women’s Flyweight – Lauren Murphy (+155) vs Miesha Tate (-190)
  • Prelims
  • Middleweight – Punahele Soriano (-260) vs Dalcha Lungiambula (+200)
  • Bantamweight – Ricky Simon (+140) vs Jack Shore (-170)
  • Featherweight – Bill Algeo (-180) vs Herbert Burns (+150)
  • Light Heavyweight – Dustin Jacoby (-130) vs Da Un Jung (+100)
  • Middleweight – Dwight Grant (-150) vs Dustin Stoltzfus (+120)
  • Women’s Strawweight – Jessica Penne (+115) vs Emily Ducote (-145)

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UFC on ABC 3: Ortega vs Rodriguez Broadcast Information
  • Date/Time: Saturday, July 16, 11 a.m. ET
  • Location: Elmont, New York
  • Arena: UBS Arena
  • Where to Watch: ABC, ESPN+

UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs Rodriguez Best Bets


UFC Vegas 58 featured a main card packed with rising stars, leaving fighters faced with a tough act to follow this time around. We also rebounded from a tough night at UFC 276 by going 3-for-6 on the night, and aim to build on that momentum with this weekend’s best bets.

Main Event Odds & Pick

Brian Ortega-170
Yair Rodriguez+140

A pair of UFC featherweight contenders aiming to kick-start their respective careers highlights the main card on Saturday at UFC Long Island. Brian Ortega (-170) has plenty of work to do to get back into the win column following recent losses to champion Alexander Volkanovski and former champ Max Holloway.

However, a lengthy layoff has not hurt him at the sportsbooks, where he is pegged as a clear favorite for the first time in over six years. Yair Rodriguez (+140) finds himself pegged as an underdog in consecutive fights for the first time since 2016.

El Pantera was listed as a distant +500 underdog in his unanimous-decision loss to Max Holloway last time out, ending an eight-fight stretch in which he sported negative odds seven times.

Ortega: Need To Knows
  • Undefeated in his first seven UFC appearances, Ortega came up short in title bids against Max Holloway in 2018 and Alexander Volkanovski in 2020.
  • The 31-year-old finished opponents in each of his first seven promotional appearances, including a first-round submission win over Mike de la Torre in his promotional debut and a first-round KO win over Frankie Edgar at UFC 222.
  • In addition to tallying seven of his 15 career wins by submission, Ortega also has three knockouts to his credit. However, the former RTC featherweight champ has also seen a full five rounds of action on five occasions.
  • Ortega has recorded seven takedowns over his past three fights. He has also recorded knockdowns in each of his past two victories.
  • “T-City” also takes a lot of punishment, absorbing an average of 6.69 strikes per minute.   
  • Ortega’s last three fights were Alexander Volkanovski (loss – unanimous decision), Chan Sung Jung (win – unanimous decision) and Max Holloway (loss – TKO).
Rodriguez: Need To Knows
  • Suspended for failing to adhere to drug testing protocols, Rodriguez made his first Octagon appearance in over two years last time out in November 2021, a five-round unanimous-decision loss to Max Holloway at UFC Vegas 42.
  • Going the distance is nothing new for Rodriguez, who has seen six of his 13 career wins come by decision, and earned a performance bonus in each of his past three contests that were decided by the judges.
  • Rodriguez sports a sizable three-inch height advantage and two-inch reach advantage over Ortega. However, he has maintained a middling 45 percent average in striking accuracy.
  • Rodriguez has shown a tendency to fade when the action extends into championship rounds, and has been outstruck by a wide margin in the final round of two of his past three contests.
  • Rodriguez’s last three fights were Max Holloway (loss – unanimous decision), Jeremy Stephens (win – unanimous decision) and Jeremy Stephens (no contest).

Prediction: Brian Ortega (-170); UNDER 4.5 rounds (-130)

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Michelle Waterson vs Amanda Lemos Odds & Pick

Michelle Waterson+250
Amanda Lemos-350

Rivals aiming to make gains in the UFC women’s strawweight rankings capture the spotlight in Saturday’s co-main event. Amanda Lemos (-350) aims to bounce back from a speedy first-round submission loss to Jessica Andrade less than three months ago.

She takes on veteran Michelle Waterson (+250), who returns to the strawweight division searching for just her second win in five fights since March 2019.

Waterson: Need To Knows
  • Waterson has demonstrated her stamina and durability while going the distance in eight straight contests, including a full five rounds in each of her past two outings.
  • “The Karate Hottie” has been largely outstruck in each of her past four fights. But she has kept things close with strong work on the mat, with three takedowns and almost 13 total minutes of control over that stretch.
  • Waterson ranks fifth all-time among strawweights with two submission wins and fourth all-time with eight total submission attempts.
  • Waterson’s last three fights were Marina Rodriguez (loss – unanimous decision), Angela Hill (win – split decision) and Carla Esparza (loss – split decision).
Lemos: Need To Knows
  • Currently pegged at No. 11 in the UFC women’s strawweight rankings, Lemos’ bid for a title shot was derailed by her opening-round loss to former champion Andrade at UFC Fight Night 205.
  • That loss snapped a 5-0 run that featured three first-round finishes, two by TKO and one by submission. Overall, seven of Lemos’ 11 career wins have come by knockout. And while she sports solid takedown skills, she struggles to establish control when the action hits the mat.
  • All but two of her 14 career fights have finished inside the distance. Lemos also possesses no experience in championship-round action.
  • Lemos’ last three fights were Jessica Andrade (loss – submission), Angela Hill (win – split decision) and Montserrat Ruiz (win – TKO).

Prediction: Amanda Lemos (-350); OVER 2.5 (-240)


Jingliang Li vs Muslim Salikhov Odds & Pick

Jingliang Li+145
Muslim Salikhov-175

Muslim Salikhov (-175) eyes a spot among the top 15 in the UFC welterweight rankings, as he looks to extend his current win streak to six fights when he faces Jingliang Li (+145) on Saturday afternoon.

Salikhov has been idle since claiming a unanimous-decision win over Francisco Trinaldo 13 months ago at UFC Vegas 28, while Li clings to No. 14 in the rankings after falling to defeat in two of his past three contests.

Li: Need To Knows
  • Li suffered his first loss by submission since 2015 with his recent defeat at the hands of rising star Khamzat Chimaev, and has seen just two of his seven career defeats come inside the distance.
  • “The Leech” holds a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and is perched among the all-time leaders in the UFC welterweight division with seven KO/TKO wins.
  • Li failed to land a single significant strike in his recent date with Chimaev. And while he sports solid takedown skills, he largely struggled on the mat, both against Chimaev and in a decisive unanimous-decision loss to Neil Magny at UFC 248.
  • Li’s last three fights were Khamzat Chimaev (loss – submission), Santiago Ponzinibbio (win – KO) and Neil Magny (loss – unanimous decision).
Salikhov: Need To Knows
  • Salikhov has enjoyed a career renaissance since joining the UFC five years ago. The 38-year-old Russian suffered a second-round submission loss to Alex Garcia in his promotional debut, but has since racked up five straight wins.
  • The “King of Kung Fu” established himself as a speedy finisher with 12 of his first 13 pro wins coming inside five minutes. However, he has since adapted his game and has gone a full three rounds in each of his past three outings. 
  • Salikhov ranks third all-time among UFC welterweights with a significant strike defense of 68.3 percent, and has also avoided being taken down or knocked down during his current five-fight win streak.
  • Salikhov’s last three fights were Francisco Trinaldo (win – unanimous decision), Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (win – split decision) and Laureano Staropoli (win – unanimous decision).

Prediction: Muslim Salikhov (-175); UNDER 2.5 rounds (+130)

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