UFC Fight Night Rochester: Dos Anjos vs Lee Odds and Picks

The UFC makes its first-ever stop at Blue Cross Arena in Rochester, New York and the card is headlined with a bout in the welterweight division. Former lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos squares off with Kevin “The Motown Phenom” Lee. Dos Anjos is a slight -120 favorite with Lee coming back at -110. I have a pick and a breakdown for each fight on the main card.

Dos Anjos vs Lee Fight Center

Rafael dos Anjos vs Kevin Lee

Dos Anjos (-120) is looking to put an end to his two-fight losing slide and he has never lost three in a row in his career. RDA made the jump up to welterweight midway through 2017 and picked up three straight wins before his current skid. His last two defeats came against current interim welterweight champion Colby Covington and current welterweight champion Kamaru Usman, both by unanimous decision.

The Brazilian is an aggressive, well-rounded fighter who has no problem getting in a gritty phone-booth fight or having a battle on the floor. Takedown defense has been a bit of an issue in his last two fights, when he got taken down a combined 19 times, and he defends just 58 percent of takedown attempts. On the feet, he has good head and foot movement that makes his opponents miss 62 percent of their strike attempts.

Lee (-110) is making the jump to the welterweight division after losing two of his last three fights at lightweight. The Motown Phenom had been on a five-fight winning streak before fighting Tony Ferguson for the interim lightweight strap at UFC 216 in 2017. He lost that fight and then two fights later lost to Al Iaquinta by unanimous decision in December of last year.

The 26-year-old likes to be the aggressor where he can dictate the pace and impose his will on his opponents. He does a lot of his damage on the floor with his vicious ground and pound and when he gets the fight there, he has a seemingly endless gas tank that allows him to push a relentless pace for the entire fight.

It will definitely be interesting to see how Kevin Lee will perform at his new weight class not having to cut as much weight. Lee likes to really use his size and pressure to break his opponents. I’m not sure how that will work against another fighter who made the jump up to welterweight a few years ago.

Prediction: Rafael dos Anjos (-120) via decision

Dos Anjos vs Lee Fight Center

Aspen Ladd vs Sijara Eubanks

Ladd (-285) is laying her perfect 7-0 record on the line and is seeking her third win in the UFC. Both of her victories in the Octagon have ended in knockout and most recently she finished former Invicta bantamweight champion Tonya Evinger at UFC 229 in October of last year.

The California native has a high fight IQ and has the ability to battle on the feet and in the clinch or on the floor. She averages 6.92 strikes per minute, but she tends to drop her hands and she ends up only avoiding 37 percent of strikes against. Of her seven pro wins, six have been finishes and five of those have been knockouts.

Eubanks (+225) is looking to remain perfect in the UFC after collecting victories in her first two bouts. She earned a unanimous-decision triumph over Lauren Murphy in her debut in June of last year and followed that up with another unanimous-decision win over Roxanne Modafferi at UFC 230.

The 34-year-old throws really nice combinations and mixes up her punches and kicks. That being said, there isn’t a lot of power behind her strikes as she has just two knockout victories in her career and they came in two of her first three pro fights. She is strong for the bantamweight division and parlays that into takedowns as she has five through her first two UFC fights.

These two women fought at Invicta 21 in 2017 with Ladd earning a unanimous-decision victory, the only time she has gone to the judges’ scorecards. Eubanks fought most of the fight moving backward and appeared to be the slower of the two. Additionally, Ladd’s strikes are a little more down the middle, while Eubanks’ punches are a little loopier, allowing Ladd to land her strikes and move away without taking much damage.

Prediction: Aspen Ladd (-285) via decision

Ladd vs Eubanks Fight Center

Antonio Carlos Junior vs Ian Heinisch

Carlos Junior (-190) is aiming to extend his five-fight winning streak as he enters the Octagon for the first time since April of last year. Of the Brazil native’s five wins in a row, four have ended in submission by rear-naked choke. “Cara de Sapato” had a rocky start to his UFC career, going 2-2 and one no contest through his first five.

The 29-year-old gets right into his opponents’ faces with seemingly no fear of their power and he looks to close distance and get the fight to the floor. He averages 3.75 takedowns per 15 minutes and when he gets the fight to the floor, it is bad news for his opponents. Eight of his 10 professional wins have ended in submission, five of them via rear-naked chokes.

Heinisch (+190) is looking for his second win in the Octagon after winning his debut against Cezar Ferreira in November of last year. That was the fourth win in a row for “The Hurricane” and the first to go to the judges’ scorecards over that span. The 30-year-old earned a contract in the UFC after his first-round knockout victory over Justin Sumtir in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series.

He has good kicks that really set up his powerful hands. In his fight with Ferreira, he outstruck his opponent 90-38, averaging 3.49 strikes per minute while only absorbing 1.67. That being said, he was dragged to the mat five times, stuffing just 50 percent of the attempts. On the floor, he did a good job of isolating a limb of Ferreira and going for a submission of his own and used it to get back to his feet.

Heinisch likes to be the aggressor in his fights, but Carlos Junior typically just marches at his opponents looking to get his hands on them. The Hurricane was brought to the floor five times against Ferreira and if a similar situation occurs against Cara de Sapato, he could be submitted. That being said, the way Carlos Junior goes forward at his opponents leaves him vulnerable to eating strikes and he has been knocked out once in his career.

Prediction: Antonio Carlos Junior (-190) via submission

Carlos Junior vs Heinisch Fight Center

Charles Oliveira vs Nik Lentz

Oliveira (-360) is seeking his first five-fight winning streak in the UFC entering the Octagon for the second time this year. Each of his bouts over his four-fight winning streak has ended in submission with his most recent coming against David Teymur on February 2. Overall, the Brazilian has a record of 14-8 with one no contest over his nine-year UFC career.

The 29-year-old is a very active fighter, bouncing around throwing kicks and flying attacks from afar. He also likes to constantly move forward looking to close distance and drag the fight to the floor. “Do Bronx” has an incredible BJJ game that has seen 18 of his 26 victories end in submission, including 13 in the UFC.

Lentz (+270) is looking to pick up his third win in a row for the first time since he did so from 2012 into 2013. “The Carny” has had a rocky past few years, failing to gain real momentum, typically winning two fights in a row before suffering a loss. Overall, the 34-year-old is 14-6-1 and one no contest in the UFC.

The Minnesota native is a well-rounded fighter who has a record of 30-9 with 19 finishes, 11 by knockout and eight by submission. He is a relentless forward-pressure fighter who doesn’t mind getting into wild exchanges or grappling battles. He averages 3.58 takedowns per 15 minutes, but only lands 34 percent of his attempts.

This is a trilogy fight between these two men with the first fight ending in a no contest due to an illegal knee and the second fight being a third-round submission win for Oliveira in May 2015. Both men are very active and exciting fighters who like to push the pace on the feet and have terrific submission skills.

Prediction: Charles Oliveira (-360) via submission

Oliveira vs Lentz Fight Center

Davi Ramos vs Austin Hubbard

Ramos (-450) is aiming to earn his fourth straight win in the UFC after his debut didn’t go as planned. “The Tasmanian Devil” lost via unanimous decision in his first fight in the Octagon against Sergio Moraes. Since then, he has rattled off three consecutive victories, all of which have been rear-naked choke submissions.

The Brazil native is a patient fighter who does a lot of analyzing before he storms in looking for the finish. He is averaging 3.28 takedowns per minute and has landed seven over his last three fights. Ramos will keep the fight standing looking to lull his opponents to sleep before he shoots in for a takedown and work toward a submission. Of his nine pro wins, seven have been by submission.

Hubbard (+325) is making his Octagon debut as he looks for a third win in a row. He was most recently in action in December of last year when he earned a fifth-round TKO finish over Killys Mota at LFA 56. Overall, he brings a record of 10-2 into the UFC and six of his 10 professional wins have been finishes.

The 27-year-old likes to get in his opponent’s face and throw his hands. He doesn’t do a great job checking kicks and often will chase his opponents around the cage rather than cutting off the angles. Hubbard has a good ability to judge distances and stay just out of range of danger while being close enough to move forward in a counter opportunity.

Hubbard is quite comfortable on his feet but doesn’t have a great offensive output and he also has a really good wrestling game if he can figure out a way to get in tight with his opponents. That being said, if he decides to take this fight to the floor, he is in real danger of being submitted as that is Ramos’ No. 1 game plan.

Prediction: Davi Ramos (-450) via submission

Ramos vs Hubbard Fight Center

Here’s a look at the full list of odds for UFC Fight Night Rochester: Dos Anjos vs Lee: