For the first time in nearly two years, the Octagon will be set up in Fortaleza, Brazil in the Centro de Formacao Olimpica do Nordeste this Saturday. The event will be headlined by two of the top five bantamweights in the division as No. 3 Raphael Assuncao takes on No. 4 “Magic” Marlon Moraes. This is a rematch of their UFC 212 bout that Assuncao won via split decision but he is a +135 underdog with Moraes coming back at -165. I have a breakdown and pick for each fight on the main card.
- Raphael Assuncao has won 11 of his last 12 fights.
- Ten of Marlon Moraes’ 21 career victories have come via knockout.
- Raphael Assuncao beat Marlon Moraes via split decision in 2017.
Raphael Assuncao vs Marlon Moraes Fight Center
| Straight Up | Picking Favorites | Picking Underdogs |
|---|---|---|
| 2-4 | 2-2 | 0-2 |
Odds Analysis
It’s interesting to see these odds as Assuncao closed as a +225 underdog in the first fight with Moraes coming back at -265. The first bout was extremely close, but ultimately Assuncao was the victor, and since 2012 winners of a first fight have gone on to win the rematch 71.42 percent of the time. These are two of the best bantamweights in the UFC and I was expecting to see the odds closer to a pick’em so I believe there’s value on Assuncao.
Raphael Assuncao vs Marlon Moraes II
Assuncao (+135) dropped his first fight in the UFC, getting knocked out in the first round by Erik Koch at UFC 128 in 2011. Since then, the Brazil native has won 11 of 12 fights, with the only loss coming against current bantamweight champion T.J. Dillashaw. Most recently, the 36-year-old is riding a four-fight winning streak, including that split-decision victory over Moraes at UFC 212.
He has tremendous defense, avoiding 70 percent of his opponents’ significant strikes and absorbing just 2.23 significant strikes per minute, while doling out 3.38 significant strikes of his own. Assuncao has a really good ability to read and judge his foe’s reach, knowing when he’s in danger and when he’s not. He hasn’t been finished in a fight since he was submitted by Urijah Faber in January 2010.
Moraes (-165) also lost his Octagon debut – to Assuncao at UFC 212 – but has bounced back with three straight wins, including back-to-back first-round knockout victories. Magic is a very active fighter, constantly switching stances looking to find angles to throw his heavy strikes. Many of his strikes are kicks, which he used to knock out Jimmie Rivera in his last fight in June of last year.
The Brazil native averages 3.25 significant strikes per minute, but lands at a clip of just 33 percent, while absorbing 2.81 significant strikes per minute. He is most effective when he is feinting and moving his head, but sometimes he strays away from that and he gets picked apart a little bit.
In rematches since 2012, the fighter who won the first fight has won the second fight 71.42 percent of the time. It is a great matchup as Assuncao is a more patient counter-striker, while Moraes is a little more aggressive, which opens him up to absorbing strikes. Assuncao doesn’t have a lot of knockout power but he is a difficult man to hit. If he does get hit, though, he could be in trouble as Moraes’ power for the division is impressive. I expect another chess match in the standup that could come down to the judges’ scorecards again.
Prediction: Raphael Assuncao (+135) via decision
Assuncao vs Moraes Fight Center
Jose Aldo vs Renato Moicano
Aldo (+125) is looking to string together victories for the first time since 2014 as he has dropped three of his last five fights, but is coming off an impressive first-round knockout over Jeremy Stephens in July of last year. The three losses the former featherweight king suffered all came via knockout by Conor McGregor (once) and current featherweight champion Max Holloway (twice).
“Junior” has extremely powerful kicks and can push a high pace for the duration of a bout, constantly looking for opportunities to land those kicks. Of Aldo’s 27 professional wins, 16 have come via T/KO but only one by submission. The Brazil native has defended 92 percent of takedown attempts, electing to keep the fight standing.
Moicano (-155) has rebounded nicely from his first career loss with back-to-back victories, including winning his most recent bout via a first-round submission over Cub Swanson. The 29-year-old was submitted in the third round by Brian Ortega at UFC 214 after dominating the majority of the fight, landing 111 significant strikes (while absorbing just 65) and two takedowns.
The Brazil native is a long fighter with good head movement, using his jab to keep his foes at bay. Moicano is primarily a counter-striker who puts together impressive, powerful combinations when his opponent enters his striking range. He likes to throw a hook, followed by a kick combination from his orthodox stance.
Many people were counting Aldo out following his stretch of losses, but he looked like his former self with his win over Jeremy Stephens. Moicano has never earned a knockout in his career, nor has he ever been knocked out, but he is very active, averaging 5.71 significant strikes per minute. Some of his strikes are a little wild and are looping, which could be a dangerous tactic vs a crisp striker like Aldo. The biggest question is whether Moicano can get Aldo to the mat so he can work toward a submission.
Prediction: Renato Moicano (-155) via decision
Demian Maia vs Lyman Good
Maia (-190) is looking to put an end to a streak of three consecutive losses by unanimous decision against the top fighters in the welterweight division. The 41-year-old began this skid when he challenged Tyron Woodley for the welterweight championship, then followed up that setback with defeats to Colby Covington and Kamaru Usman.
Maia is a dangerous submission artist, with 12 of his 25 professional wins coming in that manner. The Brazil native averages 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes, but if he can’t get the fight to the mat, he will lunge in from long distance seeking the takedown, a move that is easily defended. In the standup department, there’s not much to write about – he simply throws long punches trying to close the distance and get the fight to the floor.
Good (+155) is 2-1 inside the Octagon, with both of his victories coming by knockout, including his first-round finish of Ben Saunders at UFC 230. Half of the New York native’s 20 professional wins have come via knockout, while all four of his losses have come by decision. “Cyborg” has averaged 5.73 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.57 significant strikes per minute.
The majority of his strikes are kicks, as he inches forward looking to land his powerful blows. In his victory over Saunders in November, Good got him in a Thai clinch and landed powerful uppercuts for the knockout. The 33-year-old’s punches are a little slow and loopy, but when they connect they do a lot of damage.
As is always the case with a Demian Maia fight, it comes down to whether his opponent can avoid getting taken down. Prior to Maia’s current three-fight losing skid, he had a seven-fight winning streak, earning at least one takedown in each bout and winning three of those scraps via rear-naked choke – in his current slide, he hasn’t landed a takedown. Good was taken down by Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos in his lone UFC loss so that’ll be the key to this fight.
Prediction: Demian Maia (-190) via submission
Charles Oliveira vs David Teymur
Oliveira (-120) aims to extend his three-fight winning streak, with all three of those wins coming via submission. Most recently, he needed just 1:15 to dispose of Jim Miller in December, choking the veteran out via rear-naked choke. Overall, 17 of his 25 professional victories have come via submission, including his last six triumphs.
The 29-year-old is a very aggressive fighter, always pushing forward, pressuring his opponents. “Do Bronx” mostly relies on kicks and knees to do his damage, while using really good movements to try to make his opponents miss on their strikes so he can secure a takedown and work toward a submission.
Teymur (-110) is trying to remain perfect in the UFC with a 5-0 record, having only lost his first professional bout and rattling off eight straight wins since. The Sweden native has split his eight victories with four coming by knockout while his other four came via decision. His last three bouts went to the judges’ scorecards.
The southpaw is a big lightweight who likes to really load up on his strikes, using his kickboxing to keep his opponents at bay. When his foes get in close, he throws powerful hooks looking to put them away. Teymur has been taken down in two of his five UFC fights but showed improvements in defending the takedown in his unanimous decision victory over Nik Lentz.
This is an interesting fight as Teymur has earned four knockouts in his career and Oliveira has been knocked out four times in his career. However, the Sweden native likes to throw a lot of kicks and if the Brazilian catches one and takes this fight to the floor, Teymur could be in deep trouble. That being said, for Oliveira to close the distance, it puts him in major danger of getting caught with one of those power strikes.
Prediction: Charles Oliveira (-120) via submission
Oliveira vs Teymur Fight Center
Johnny Walker vs Justin Ledet
Walker (-210) is making his second walk to the Octagon after earning a quick first-round knockout over Khalil Rountree Jr. in November of last year. The 26-year-old has massive power as 12 of his 15 professional victories have come via knockout. That being said, all three of his losses have been finishes, including two by T/KO. He hasn’t lost a fight since June of 2016, a span of seven fights.
Walker is a big fighter, standing six-foot-six, and he utilizes a sideways stance to maximize his distance control. Additionally, he has a lot of head movement to keep his opponents at bay, constantly pawing his left to judge his distance before exploding forward with his massive power.
Ledet (+170) is coming off his first career loss as he fell via unanimous decision to Aleksandar Rakic in July of last year. That defeat put an end to his 10-fight unbeaten streak – he won nine of those bouts, with one ending in a no contest following an accidental eye poke. Five of his nine pro wins have come via submission.
“El Blanco” isn’t very big for the light heavyweight division, but what he lacks in size he makes up in speed. The Texas native also doesn’t shy away from getting into wild exchanges and often encourages them. However, he doesn’t do a great job avoiding strikes as he absorbs an average of 4.34 significant strikes per minute while only dishing out 3.47 of his own.
Ledet doesn’t set up his strikes that well but rather puts his chin down and marches forward looking to get into striking range where he swings from the hip. In his fight vs Rakic, he didn’t show any ability to check kicks and that could lead to him getting chewed up by Walker. I think that Walker’s explosiveness and power will be too much for Ledet.
Prediction: Johnny Walker (-210) via knockout
Levinha Souza vs Sarah Frota
Souza (-220) makes her second walk to the Octagon following her first-round submission victory over Alex Chambers in September of last year. It took “The Brazilian Gangster” just 1:21 to sink in a guillotine choke and end the fight. That submission victory was her eighth, making up the bulk of her 12 professional wins.
Her only loss came in 2016 when she lost a split decision against Angela Hill. Prior to the submission against Chambers, Souza threw some powerful strikes, including loading up on a looping right hand that she used to close the distance and secure the takedown. The Brazilian Gangster is aggressive and likes to get in wild exchanges and when her opponent least expects it she transitions to a takedown.
Frota (+180) is making her Octagon debut after earning a UFC contract with her first-round knockout in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series Brazil edition. She brings to the cage an undefeated 9-0 record with five wins coming via submission. However, she needed just 3:26 to earn a knockout victory over Malara Amanajas dos Santos to get her UFC contract.
The 31-year-old is a compact fighter who doesn’t use a lot of extra movement when she marches her opponents down. Her punches don’t have a lot of speed behind them, but she fires her left hand from the hip with a lot of power. When she had Amanajas dos Santos hurt, she swarmed, loading up on power punches with a left hand followed by a right.
Souza is going to want to pressure Froto with her looping right hand and will have a definite speed advantage. However, if “A Treta” connects with that powerful left hand, the Brazilian Gangster could be in deep trouble. Both girls have high-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu games so it really may come down to what wins out in the standup in this bout, speed or power?
Prediction: Livinha Souza (-220) via decision
Here’s a look at the odds for the full fight card UFC Fight Night Fortaleza:
- Raphael Assuncao +135
- Marlon Moraes -165
- Jose Aldo +125
- Renato Moicano -155
- Demian Maia -190
- Lyman Good +155
- Charles Oliveira -120
- David Teymur -110
- Johnny Walker -210
- Justin Ledet +170
- Livinha Souza -220
- Sarah Frota +180
- Markus Perez +130
- Anthony Hernandez -160
- Mara Romero Borella +135
- Taila Santos -165
- Thiago Alves +160
- Max Griffin -200
- Junior Albini -120
- Jairzinho Rozenstruik -110
- Geraldo de Freitas Jr -130
- Felipe Colares EVEN
- Ricardo Ramos -135
- Said Nurmagomedov +105
- Magomed Bibulatov -400
- Rogerio Bontorin +300
