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UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs Stephens Odds

UFC Fight Night Mexico: Rodriguez vs Stephens

The Octagon returns to Mexico City for the first time in just over a year as it will be set up at Mexico City Arena on September 21. Headlining this card is a bout in the featherweight division with Yair “Pantera” Rodriguez colliding with Jeremy “Lil’ Heathen” Stephens. The Mexico native, Rodriguez, is a slight -120 favorite with the American, Stephens, coming back at -110.

Odds Analysis

Rodriguez has been favored in five of his last six fights, including this one, with his only time as an underdog over that span coming when he fought Frankie Edgar. Coincidentally, the only loss that Pantera has had since he fell to Roberto Herrera in 2012 was to Edgar, a span of 10 fights. This is the first time we have seen Rodriguez since he earned the 2018 knockout of the year in the last second against Korean Zombie in November.

This marks back-to-back bouts in which Stephens has been an underdog and he enters the cage on a two-fight losing slide. Lil’ Heathen had been favored in two straight fights prior to his loss to Zabit Magomedsharipov in March and went 1-1 in those fights, knocking out Josh Emmett and then getting knocked out by Jose Aldo.

How Will This Fight Play Out?

Fans should expect fireworks when these two competitors step inside the Octagon as Stephens has 19 knockouts on his record while Rodriguez has won four of his 11 pro wins by T/KO as well. The 26-year-old, Rodriguez, has tremendous kicks and he’s long, wild and creative. This creativity was on full display with his fifth-round knockout of the Korean Zombie last November when he landed an upward elbow from a very odd angle.

Meanwhile, Stephens likes to stalk his opponents and look to let his heavy hands fly. The orthodox fighter really loads up on his right hand and doesn’t necessarily set it up well, but when it lands, he puts his opponents in a bad way. Sometimes Lil’ Heathen closes the distance but waits a long time to actually throw his strikes, which allows his opponents to either circle away or throw first, but his powerful right hand is usually right behind their strikes.

Overall, this is a true matchup between a heavy brawler and a creative kickboxer. If Stephens wants to secure a victory, he will have to corner Rodriguez and find a place for his right hand. On the other hand, Pantera may find success with his quick head kicks or spinning attacks at long distance.

Prediction: Jeremy Stephens (-110) via knockout

Yair Rodriguez vs Jeremy Stephens Betting Odds
Yair Rodriguez-120
Jeremy Stephens-110

Odds as of September 20 at Bovada