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UFC: Shevchenko vs Calderwood Odds Analysis

Shevchenko vs Calderwood Betting Odds

The first piece of the UFC 251 puzzle has been put together as Valentina “Bullet” Shevchenko is set to defend her flyweight championship against Joanne “JoJo” Calderwood. Although the event doesn’t have an announced venue, the card will take place on June 6 and this bout is likely to be the co-main event behind the rematch between Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway for the featherweight strap. As expected, the champion Shevchenko is a massive -1200 favorite with the challenger, Calderwood, coming back at +800.

Odds Analysis

Although it may seem absurd for a UFC match to have a favorite of over -1000, such is the norm for the flyweight queen. Bullet has been a favorite of -1000 or more in each of her title defenses, going 3-0 with two T/KO finishes in those bouts. She has had a total of five fights in this weight class and has been favored by -1000 or more in four with only former strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk providing tighter odds. Shevchenko’s only defeats in the UFC are two narrow decision losses to current bantamweight and featherweight champion Amanda Nunes.

That doesn’t mean you should look past Joanne Calderwood. The Scotland native has been quite successful in the flyweight division, sporting a 4-1 record with two stoppage victories and her only defeat coming against recent title challenger Katlyn Chookagian. JoJo is familiar being in this spot, closing as a dog in three of her flyweight fights, winning each one and earning backers a profit of $515 based on $100 bets in those scraps.

How Will This Fight Play Out?

Shevchenko may be the most decorated – and dangerous – striker in the UFC. She holds Master of Sports in several different disciplines and it appears she is getting better with each appearance in the Octagon. She has an outstanding fight IQ, taking the first couple of minutes of a fight to download her opponent’s movements before going on the attack. Once she does decide to engage, she throws all of her strikes from punches to kicks with bad intentions to finish her foes. Additionally, if she feels any threat on the feet, she will simply take the fight to the floor.

Calderwood also likes to get into striking exchanges, having a high output of 6.19 significant strikes per minute. She feels comfortable in these brawl-style fights because her chin has been tested and has held up in some challenging fights – she has never been knocked out. However, she isn’t exactly known for her power either, having just one knockout victory through 10 fights in the Octagon. JoJo does a good job maintaining distance with her long kicks, but she sometimes gets caught standing a little flat-footed.

The +800 odds for Calderwood are extremely tempting from a value standpoint. That said, she is going against arguably one of the best female fighters on the planet and I wouldn’t be taking out a loan on JoJo.

Valentina Shevchenko vs Joanne Calderwood Betting Odds
Valentina Shevchenko-1200
Joanne Calderwood+800

Odds as of February 22 at BetOnline