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UFC: Shevchenko vs Chookagian Odds Analysis

UFC: Shevchenko vs Chookagian Odds Analysis

The co-headliner for UFC 247 at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas, sees the women’s flyweight championship up for grabs. Valentina “Bullet” Shevchenko will be making her third title defense against Katlyn “Blonde Fighter” Chookagian. The champ, Shevchenko, is a massive -1100 favorite to retain her strap, while the challenger, Chookagian, is coming back as a +650 underdog. Headlining UFC 247 is Jon “Bones” Jones taking on Dominick “The Devastator” Reyes for the light heavyweight belt.

Odds Analysis

Since the 125-pound division opened up, Shevchenko has dominated the weight class, going 4-0, and has been a favorite of -1000 or more in three of those bouts. Only former strawweight queen Joanna Jedrzejczyk had tighter odds, when Bullet was a -320 favorite.

As for Chookagian, this will be her first time as an underdog in the flyweight division and just the second time she will have been an underdog over her eight-fight UFC career. She does have a record of 6-2 over that span, with the two losses both coming by split decision against Shevchenko’s last two challengers, Jessica Eye and Liz Carmouche. Hard to lay a wager on a -1000 favorite but the odds are set correctly for this fight.

Valentina Shevchenko vs Katlyn Chookagian Betting Odds
Valentina Shevchenko-1100
Katlyn Chookagian+650

Odds as of February 8 at Bovada

How Will This Fight Play Out?

Chookagian tends to bide her time and load up before throwing a flurry of strikes. She prefers to be a counter-striker with her great footwork, but she doesn’t have great head movement, which has led to her absorbing 4.58 significant strikes per minute. Offensively, she does a good job feinting and looking for opportunities to land clean strikes and she often finishes her combinations with a kick. She doesn’t have tremendous power behind her strikes, though, with only two knockout victories to her name, both coming before her UFC career.

As for the champion, Shevchenko is extremely well-rounded with dangerous strikes and a perhaps underrated ground game. Bullet is elite when it comes to judging distance and reading her opponents’ movements. She only absorbs 2.16 significant strikes per minute and has outstruck her opponents at flyweight by a combined 234-100. Shevchenko is aggressive after her foes throw a strike and has knockout power in her kicks. As for her grappling, she has landed at least one takedown in all but one of her nine UFC bouts and has two submission victories in the Octagon. I anticipate her dominating in every aspect of this bout.

Which Fighter Has The Most Betting Value?

Although it’s not pretty to lay a bet on a -1100 favorite, Shevchenko is the bet to make here. Chookagian doesn’t have a single takedown in the UFC as she likes to stand and trade with her opponents. That said, Shevchenko’s accolades as a striker are as follows: Master of Sports in Taekwondo, International Master of Sports in Muay Thai, Master of Sports in Boxing, Master of Sports in Kickboxing and a Master of Sports in Judo – not good for Blonde Fighter.

I don’t really see a path to victory for Chookagian in this one. I think looking for a prop on Shevchenko is the best bet to make, perhaps to win by decision.