UFC Fight Night Nashville: Thompson vs Pettis Odds and Picks

For the first time in nearly two years, the UFC is heading back to Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. The card will be headlined with a battle in the welterweight division as Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson stands toe to toe with Anthony “Showtime” Pettis. Thompson is looking to get back in the win column for the first time since November 2017 and is a -380 favorite to do so, while Pettis is competing at welterweight for the first time in 11 years and is a +290 underdog. I have a breakdown and pick for each fight on the main card.

Thompson vs Pettis Fight Center

Stephen Thompson vs Anthony Pettis

Thompson (-380) is on the worst stretch of his career, going 1-2-1 in his last four fights, including a draw and a loss against Tyron Woodley in his two attempts for the welterweight strap and a unanimous-decision defeat to Darren Till last May. Prior to this recent rough patch, Wonderboy had gone 13-1, including victories over now-middleweight champion Robert Whittaker and current Bellator welterweight champ Rory MacDonald.

The 36-year-old is a very talented kickboxer who puts an emphasis on point fighting rather than going all out for the knockout. That being said, if you pressure him, he has the power to put you to sleep as seven of his 14 professional wins have come by T/KO, though he hasn’t earned a victory in that manner since 2016. Thompson fights long and is very fast, picking his opponents apart when in kicking range.

Pettis (+290) has been on a win-one, lose-one streak over his last seven fights and most recently lost to Tony Ferguson at UFC 229 when he broke his hand in the second round. Showtime is competing in the welterweight division for the first time under the UFC banner, having just one bout at that weight class back in 2008, when he earned a first-round knockout over Gabe Walbridge.

The Wisconsin native is very quick and creative, throwing some flashy kicks, including propelling himself off the side of the cage to throw flying head kicks. He is also very well rounded and if the fight hits the floor, he has the ability to submit people, but he’d much rather get in a war on the feet. The former lightweight champ does have nine knockout victories to his name but hasn’t won a fight by T/KO since 2013.

This is an extremely tough fight for Anthony Pettis coming into the welterweight division. Thompson is a master at keeping range and picking his opponents apart from afar in a technical chess match, while also having the ability to brutally knock his foes out if they look to pressure him. Pettis is going to have to try to close the distance as he is two inches shorter and will have at least a 2.5-inch reach disadvantage.

Prediction: Stephen Thompson (-380) via knockout

Thompson vs Pettis Fight Center

Curtis Blaydes vs Justin Willis

Blaydes (-265) hops back in the Octagon for the first time since he was knocked out in the first round by Francis Ngannou in November. In fact, Ngannou is the only man to ever beat “Razor” and he did so twice, with both wins coming by TKO, one by doctor’s stoppage back in 2016. The 28-year-old had gone 5-0 with one no contest in between the two Ngannou fights and he looks to get back in the win column Saturday.

The Chicago native is a relentless wrestler, averaging 6.75 takedowns per 15 minutes, and hits 55 percent of his attempts. On the floor, he has an aggressive ground and pound that has resulted in eight knockout triumphs and he averages 4.17 significant strikes per minute. Additionally, Blaydes tends to be the aggressor in the cage, constantly moving forward throwing a jab, but he is ultimately looking to drag the fight to the floor.

Willis (+205) is looking to remain undefeated in the UFC after beginning his Octagon career 4-0. Most recently, “Big Pretty” earned a unanimous-decision victory over Mark Hunt in December. The 31-year-old lost his pro debut in 2012, getting knocked out in the second round by Henry Solls. Since then, he has rattled off eight straight wins, with four coming by knockout.

The California native likes to move forward looking to get in the range of his opponents where he uses his terrific head movement and crisp counter-strikes. He averages 4.4 significant strikes per minute, while only absorbing 2.92 significant strikes per minute, and makes his opponents miss 60 percent of their attempts. He has a good offensive wrestling pedigree as well, landing 1.26 takedowns per 15 minutes, hitting 66 percent of his attempts.

This is going to be a great tilt in the heavyweight division! The big question mark for me is how is Willis at defending takedowns as he hasn’t had to show off that skill set in the Octagon. This is a big step up in competition for the Big Pretty as well. I think Blaydes is fitter and faster, but if he can’t figure out a way to get this fight to the floor, Willis’ counter-strikes could be the difference maker.

Prediction: Curtis Blaydes (-265) via knockout

Blaydes vs Willis Fight Center

John Makdessi vs Jesus Pinedo

Makdessi (-315) is looking for his second-ever three-fight winning streak inside the Octagon as he is coming off back-to-back decision victories. “The Bull” most recently got past Ross Pearson in July of last year, outstriking the Brit 134-81. Prior to those consecutive wins, Makdessi had dropped three of four fights, including two ending by knockout.

The Canada native is a very active fighter who is constantly picking away at his opponents, hopping in and out of range looking to get into striking exchanges. Makdessi averages 5.49 significant strikes per minute, while only absorbing 3.89 significant strikes per minute, and makes his opponents miss 71 percent of their strike attempts. Additionally, his karate-style sideways stance makes him difficult to take down and he defends 87 percent of attempts against.

Pinedo (+245) returns to the Octagon for the first time since winning his UFC debut in November. “El Mudo” is on a seven-fight win streak overall, with six of those bouts ending in a finish while his lone UFC scrap was a unanimous-decision victory over Devin Powell. At 22 years old, he already has 20 professional fights, sporting a record of 16-4. Eleven of those wins were finishes, seven by knockout and four by submission.

The Peru native has an interesting style in that he’s always moving but will briefly switch stances really quickly to freeze his opponents for a brief second if they are pressuring him. He likes to get into some wild exchanges but is really durable, having just two knockout losses on his record. Additionally, he has good cardio that allows him to keep a good pace even in the latter stages of a bout and he has a great ability to grab kicks to drag his opponents to the floor.

One of the biggest weapons Makdessi utilizes is his kicks, but in Pinedo’s win over Powell, he constantly was catching the kicks and dragging his foe to the floor. Additionally, the Peru native will have a bit of a size advantage as the Canada native isn’t an overly tall individual. However, I think The Bull will have a power advantage and a better fight IQ which may give him the edge overall.

Prediction: John Makdessi (-315) via decision

Makdessi vs Pinedo Fight Center

Jussier Formiga vs Deiveson Figueiredo

Formiga (+120) is looking to extend his three-fight winning streak as he enters the Octagon again for the first time since UFC 229 in October. This is the second time that the Brazil native has won three fights in a row under the UFC banner. The first winning streak resulted in a No. 1 contender fight with Henry Cejudo in 2015, with the current flyweight champ, Cejudo, earning a split-decision win in that bout.

The 33-year-old’s striking is nothing to write home about, having never earned a knockout in his professional career, and he only averages 1.34 significant strikes per minute. That being said, he is very light on his feet and makes his opponents miss 65 percent of their attempts against. The main path to victory for Formiga is grappling and submissions as 10 of his 22 pro wins have come in that manner. He has lost every fight in which he didn’t land a takedown, while winning every fight that he was able to bring to the floor.

Figueiredo (-150) is laying his perfect 15-0 record on the line, including his undefeated 4-0 record inside the Octagon. Three of his four bouts in the UFC have ended via knockout, including the most recent when he earned a second-round TKO win over John Moraga in August of last year. Overall, 13 of his 15 professional wins have been finishes, eight by knockout and five by submission.

“Deus Da Guerra” switches stances seamlessly, always cutting down the cage and attacking the areas that his opponent is circling too. He has a good read of distance as well, making sure he’s staying out of the range of his opponents while knowing exactly when he can let his hands or kicks fly. His takedown defense isn’t that great, stuffing just 50 percent of takedown attempts, and he was dragged to the floor seven times vs Jarred Brooks in October 2017, but he works well off his back searching for submissions.

I think this is going to be a really interesting chess match with a good striker who’s not the best at defending takedowns going against a lethal submission artist who hasn’t lost a fight in which he landed a takedown. Just because Figueiredo is a good striker doesn’t mean he’s not a good submission fighter either as he has had 11 submission attempts through his first four UFC fights.

Prediction: Jussier Formiga (+120) via decision

Formiga vs Figueiredo Fight Center

Luis Pena vs Steven Peterson

Pena (-260) is back in action for the first time since his first professional loss in November. The former TUF 27 competitor was injured during the show but was able to fight on the TUF 27 finale in July of last year when he earned a first-round submission win over Richie Smullen. He followed that fight up with the Sportsbook of that season, Michael Trizano, but lost via split decision. “Violent Bob Ross” is now 5-1 with five finishes, four by submission and one by knockout.

The 25-year-old is extremely tall and long for the featherweight division, standing six-foot-three, and he uses that range well by throwing long jabs and front kicks. Additionally, because of his long limbs, he is a real threat on the floor to lock in a fight-ending submission, a feat he has accomplished in four of his five professional wins.

Peterson (+200) is looking for his first winning streak in the UFC after getting his first win in the Octagon in the TUF 27 finale last July. “Ocho” lost his UFC debut by unanimous decision to Brandon Davis but bounced back for a decision win over Matt Bessette. Overall, the 28-year-old is 17-7 with 12 of his wins coming by finishes, four by knockout and eight by submission.

Peterson is a wild fighter who leaves it all in the cage, willing to get into standup wars or a wrestling match. He has earned three takedowns through his first two fights in the Octagon and averages 5.09 significant strikes per minute, but also absorbs 5.51 significant strikes per minute. Additionally, he has defended 100 percent of takedown attempts, really controlling if and when the fight will go to the floor.

I think that Peterson is a little uncontrolled in the Octagon and doesn’t do a great job defending strikes at all, often leaving his hands a little low and not getting them up in time to block strikes. However, he will be able to overcome the six-inch reach disadvantage due to his style of just marching forward and throwing hands. I think Pena is really going to use movement to keep a large distance and take advantage of his length.

Prediction: Luis Pena (-260) via submission

Pena vs Peterson Fight Center

Maycee Barber vs JJ Aldrich

Barber (-260) is looking to keep the hype train alive as she makes her second Octagon appearance. “The Future” burst onto the scene with her TKO win over Jamie Colleen in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series and followed that up with a second-round TKO victory over Hannah Cifers in November. Barber is a perfect 6-0 with five finishes, three by knockout and two by submission.

The 20-year-old is an aggressive fighter who marches toward her opponents looking to get into striking exchanges and if that’s not going well, she will just drag the fight to the floor. She averaged 8.46 significant strikes per minute in her win over Cifers in November but also absorbed 4.37 significant strikes per minute. She is tall and big for the division and she uses her kicks well at range and has really good knees and elbows in the clinch.

Aldrich (+200) is looking for her first-ever four-fight winning streak. The Colorado native lost her UFC debut by unanimous decision to Juliana Lima in December 2016, but since then has picked up three straight wins by unanimous decision. Overall, she has a 7-2 record with five of her wins coming by decision. Her other two victories came by knockout, but she hasn’t earned a win in that manner since September 2016.

The 26-year-old has a lightning-quick jab that she lands frequently. She also does a very good job at firing off her back foot when her opponent is backing her down. Aldrich likes to get into scrappy fights, landing 3.72 significant strikes per minute but also absorbing 3.87 significant strikes per minute. That being said, she makes her opponents miss 63 percent of their attempts with her good footwork and head movement.

Barber is going to bring the fight to Aldrich, but that’s the type of fight she likes. The big issue for me is the output discrepancy. Barber is so aggressive just looking to engage in a war, while Aldrich is a lot more methodical and cautious. I think Barber is simply going to overwhelm her for however long this fight lasts.

Prediction: Maycee Barber (-260) via knockout

Barber vs Aldrich Fight Center

Here’s a look at the full list of odds for UFC Fight Night Nashville: Thompson vs Pettis: