Kevin Holland (left) is a slight favorite in the Thompson vs Holland odds

Thompson vs Holland Odds & Picks: Tight Odds At UFC Orlando

The UFC’s next event takes place on December 3 when Stephen Thompson (16-6-1, 11-6-1 UFC) and Kevin Holland (23-8, 10-5 UFC) battle for their rankings atop the welterweight division. 

The five-round bout will serve as the main event for UFC on ESPN 42 at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida. Prelims begin at 7 p.m. ET with the main card to follow around 10 p.m.

Bet On UFC Fight Night Here

Sportsbook has set the Thompson vs Holland odds, with Holland now a -185 favorite.

We’ve got you covered for Thompson vs Holland betting and all other UFC needs. Check out all our UFC betting sites, our How To Bet UFC page and specific fight previews, including a closer look at the co-main event at UFC 282 between Paddy Pimblett and Jared Gordon.

Thompson vs Holland Odds & Betting Notes

Holland, an unranked fighter who has competed at welterweight and middleweight, has had a fascinating trajectory in the UFC. Nicknamed “Big Mouth” by company president Dana White, the 30-year-old has cultivated a reputation for an exciting – sometimes erratic – fighting style and willingness to compete on short notice (he famously fought five times in 2020). 

Holland last competed at UFC 279, where he was shifted into a 180-pound catchweight fight vs Khamzat Chimaev. Holland, the +460 underdog, lost by first-round submission. Before Chimaev, he was favored vs Tim Means (-325) and Alex Oliveira (-410), finishing both those guys in the second round. 

Thompson, ranked sixth at welterweight, is a veteran of the sport, though he’s coming off two decision losses in fights where he was favored (-210 vs Belal Muhammad and -160 vs Gilbert Burns). “Wonderboy” hasn’t fought in about a year, and if his +153 odds hold, it’ll be his first time fighting as the underdog since 2016 (vs Johny Hendricks at UFC Fight Night 82). 

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs Holland Odds

Holland is the -185 favorite, per Sportsbook, while Thompson is a +153 underdog.

A prelim women's flyweight fight between Amanda Ribas (-112) and Tracy Cortez (-110) carries the tightest odds on the card, while welterweight Bryana Barbarena (+400) is the biggest underdog in his tough matchup vs Rafael Dos Anjos (-600). 

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs Holland Betting Odds & Fight Card

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs Holland Odds
  • Main Card
  • Welterweight – Kevin Holland (-185) vs Stephen Thompson (+153)
  • Welterweight – Rafael dos Anjos (-600) vs Bryan Barberena (+400)
  • Flyweight – Matheus Nicolau (-425) vs Matt Schnell (+295)
  • Heavyweight – Tai Tuivasa (+190) vs Sergei Pavlovich (-240)
  • Middleweight – Roman Dolidze (+159) vs Jack Hermansson (-193)
  • Middleweight – Eryk Anders (+180) vs Kyle Daukaus (-240)
  • Prelims
  • Welterweight – Niko Price (-134) vs Philip Rowe (+108)
  • Women’s Strawweight – Angela Hill (+110) vs Emily Ducote (-130)
  • Lightweight – Clay Guida (+145) vs Scott Holtzman (-175)
  • Lightweight  – Michael Johnson (+265) vs Marc Diakese (-335)
  • Featherweight – Jonathan Pearce (-500) vs Darren Elkins (+360)
  • Women’s Flyweight – Amanda Ribas (-112) vs Tracy Cortez (-110)
  • Lightweight – Natan Levy (-210) vs Genaro Valdez (+170)
  • Featherweight – Francis Marshall (-170) vs Marcelo Rojo (+142)
  • Women’s Strawweight – Yazmin Jauregui (-350) vs Istela Nunes (+270)

Odds as of December 3 at Sportsbook

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs Holland Broadcast Information
  • Date/Time: December 3, 7 p.m. ET
  • Location: Orlando, Florida
  • Arena: Amway Center
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass, Cable Provider


Stephen Thompson vs Kevin Holland Odds & Pick

Stephen Thompson+153
Kevin Holland-185

Our odds calculator tells us Holland’s -153 status represents an implied win probability of 64.91 percent, meaning a $10 bet pays out $15.41. Thompson’s +153 status gives him an implied win probability of 39.53 percent, which means a $10 bet on him pays out $25.30. 

Holland: Need to Knows
  • Holland, like his opponent Thompson, is a polished striker. “Trailblazer” is long and explosive, capable of demolishing opponents with straights and elbows, though he might need to rein in some of that aggression vs Wonderboy. Thompson’s last two losses have been low-volume affairs with plenty of takedowns mixed in by his opponents. Before that, Thompson won two high-volume striking duels vs Geoff Neal and Vicente Luque. Holland may need to be a little less wild in this one, as few fighters possess Thompson’s striking instincts and precision. 
  • The 30-year-old got off to a blazing start in the UFC, scoring some high-profile finishes at middleweight. At 185 pounds, seven of Holland’s 12 fights have gone OVER 2.5 rounds. After a bumpy losing streak, Holland cut back down to welterweight. Since that transition, both his fights have gone UNDER 1.5 rounds (excluding the catchweight bout vs Chimaev). All to say, he’s cleaned up his latest opponents at 170 pounds, but Thompson, a notorious decision fighter, will be much harder to stop. 
  • Holland’s last three fights have come against Chimaev (loss – submission), Means (win – submission) and Oliveira (win – knockout). 
Thompson: Need to Knows
  • Wonderboy’s pedigree as a standup fighter is impeccable, even as his striking accuracy has waned to 43 percent. His last two losses, however, have exposed his vulnerability to takedowns. Muhammad, a good but not elite wrestler, took Thompson down a career-high seven times and smothered him for a decision victory. Point-fighting isn’t Holland’s style, so we expect him to be more active, but if Trailblazer can get in close and use the clinch to drop to ground and pound, he’ll have a massive advantage.
  • Six of Thompson’s 11 UFC wins have gone the distance. Lately, though, he’s been a lock for his fights to go to decision – nine of his last 10 bouts have gone the distance. When Thompson fights as the main event, the trend flips a bit. Of the 37-year-old’s eight career five-round fights, three have finished inside the distance, with all three going UNDER 2.5 rounds. It’s quite hard to knock Wonderboy out, but it can be done. 
  • Thompson’s last three fights were against Muhammad (loss – unanimous decision), Burns (loss – unanimous decision) and Neal (win – unanimous decision). 

Pick: Holland to win (-185); OVER 3.5 Rounds (+105)


Rafael dos Anjos vs Bryan Barberena Odds & Picks

Rafael dos Anjos-600
Bryan Barberena+400

The co-main event at UFC Fight Night Orlando features an exciting tilt between welterweights Rafael dos Anjos (31-14, 20-12 UFC) and Bryan Barberena (18-8, 9-6 UFC).

Dos Anjos: Need to Knows
  • RDA is a legend of the sport, but the 38-year-old’s best days are very clearly behind him. After losing a tightly contested fight to Rafael Fiziev (RDA was KO’d in the fifth round), the Brazilian faces another brawler in Barberena, this time as a massive favorite. The American is incredibly vulnerable to takedowns (2.7 takedowns allowed per fight), which gives RDA, a grappling aficionado, a big edge if he can work his way to the mat. 
  • Nine of dos Anjos’ last 10 fights have gone OVER 2.5 rounds. RDA’s submission win over Neil Magny in 2017 was his last finish UNDER 2.5 rounds, and he’s only been part of a stoppage – win or lose – in three of his last 10 fights. We’ll see how the OVER/UNDER line looks, but this fight seems destined to go the distance.
  • Dos Anjos’ last three fights were against Fiziev (loss – knockout), Renato Moicano (win – unanimous decision) and Paul Felder (win – split decision). 
Barberena: Need to Knows
  • Barberena is a punishing fighter who loads up on offense (6.11 significant strikes landed per minute) but also takes a good chunk of shots (5.01 significant strikes). Five of the 33-year-old’s nine UFC wins have come via stoppage, which leads us to believe this bout vs RDA will be pretty nasty. Barberena is best when he floods his opponent with pressure and clubs them repeatedly. Dos Anjos is far too savvy to be tricked into banging with the American. The takedowns will be big, which is why we like RDA in this matchup. 
  • The California native is a vicious fighter coming off a stellar knockout of Robbie Lawler, but beyond that, it’s been awhile since Barberena stopped anyone. In fact, seven of his last 10 fights have gone OVER 2.5 rounds, with Barberena winning just six times and getting knocked out twice. I’d be very surprised if RDA finished Barberena, which means it’s up to the American to finish this one early. While his win over Lawler was big, RDA is a tougher task. Even with the chalk, the OVER 2.5 rounds is the way to go. 
  • Barberena’s last three fights were against Lawler (win – knockout), Matt Brown (win – split decision) and Darian Weeks (win – unanimous decision). 

Pick: dos Anjos by decision (-135); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-210)


Tai Tuivasa vs Sergei Pavlovich Odds & Pick

Tai Tuivasa+190
Sergei Pavlovich-240

A flashy heavyweight fight between fourth-ranked Tai Tuivasa (15-4, 8-4 UFC) and fifth-ranked Sergei Pavlovich (16-1, 4-1 UFC) will also take place on the main card. 

Tuivasa: Need to Knows

  • “Bam Bam” has arguably been the heavyweight division’s most exciting fighter over the last two years, but this is a mismatch on paper. The Russian holds a massive nine-inch reach advantage over the Australian, which will limit Tai’s ability to get in close with punches or low kicks. Tuivasa did OK against Ciryl Gane’s long reach at UFC Paris, but by the third round, his body was in too much pain and the Frenchman knocked him out. Pavlovich has the physical skill set to do the same thing to Tuivasa, he just needs to avoid rushing into things. 
  • Since Tuivasa turned things around in 2020, five of his six fights have gone UNDER 1.5 rounds (Gane was the lone opponent to push things OVER 1.5 rounds). Given Tuivasa’s eagerness to engage and Pavlovich’s history of early stoppages, this fight should wrap up UNDER 1.5 rounds (odds TBD). If you’re looking for better value, though, a look at the UNDER 0.5 rounds could be the move, as Tuivasa has recorded two stoppages UNDER 0.5 rounds in his last six bouts. 
  • Tuivasa’s last three fights have come against Gane (loss – knockout), Derrick Lewis (win – knockout) and Augusto Sakai (win – knockout).
Pavlovich: Need to Knows
  • When you’re fighting Tuivasa, patience is your friend. For Pavlovich, though, patience has never really been his style, and that’s where things get a little bit dicey. Bam Bam has a short reach, but he’s explosive and seemingly flies out of nowhere with right hooks during heavy exchanges. Pavlovich should learn from what Gane did to Tuivasa and throw kicks and punches to Tuivasa’s midsection. If Sergei invests in the body, his nine-inch reach advantage will play much larger as Tuivasa gets fatigued. If the Russian hurries into things, Tuivasa will torch him. 
  • Pavlovich is a lock for the UNDER 1.5 rounds, as all five of his UFC fights have ended in less than five minutes. Additionally, three of the Russian’s five fights have ended UNDER 0.5 rounds. For better value, it’s worth wagering a bit of cash on the UNDER 0.5 rounds. 
  • The 30-year-old’s last three fights have come against Lewis (win – knockout), Shamil Abdurakhimov (win – knockout) and Maurice Greene (win – knockout).

Pick: Tuivasa by KO/TKO (+185); UNDER 0.5 Rounds (+230)

Back to Top