UFC 227: Dillashaw vs Garbrandt 2 main card odds and picks

The UFC makes its way to the Staples Center in Los Angeles for UFC 227: Dillashaw vs Garbrandt 2. This card features two title fights in the UFC’s two lightest male divisions, the bantamweight and flyweight divisions. Both fights are rematches with bantamweight champ TJ Dillashaw being a slight -135 favorite, while flyweight champ Demetrious Johnson is a huge -500 favorite. The bantamweight challenger, Cody Garbrandt, is coming back at +105, while flyweight contender Henry Cejudo is the +350 dog. I’ve got the breakdown and pick for each fight for the UFC 227 main card.

TJ Dillashaw vs Cody Garbrandt 2

Sportsbook has the rematch between these two training partners as close as you can get it with the champion, Dillashaw, Sportsbook as the -120 favorite and the challenger, Garbrandt, coming back as the -110 underdog. This is quite a stark difference from their first bout, as Garbrandt, then the champ, closed as a -201 favorite and Dillashaw came back at +171. Underdog bettors profited on that one as Dillashaw scored a second-round knockout. That was the first time Dillashaw had closed as a dog since he won the belt the first time against Renan Barao when he closed at +675.

Dillashaw (-135) may have the best footwork in the UFC. The 32-year-old has a terrific ability to switch stances and strike with conviction with either hand. He is always analyzing his opponent and weaving in and out of range, absorbing just 2.91 significant strikes per minute, while making his opponents miss 66 percent of their attempts. In addition, the California native has the ability to drag the fight to the ground as he did five times against John Lineker at UFC 207. Dillashaw hasn’t been finished since the TUF 14 finale in 2011.

His two losses since both came by split decision. However, he was rocked in his first clash with Garbrandt at UFC 217 but was saved by the bell. Dillashaw recovered and showed power of his own in the second round, securing the KO victory and reclaiming the bantamweight belt.

Garbrandt (+105) has true knockout power within the bantamweight division. “No Love” has six victories inside the Octagon, four of which came by T/KO, three in the first round. He is a fast starter, getting in the face of his opponents and daring them to throw as his confidence in counter-striking is off the charts. The 27-year-old stood toe to toe with former champion Dominick Cruz, staying out of range while landing with crisp accuracy.

The Ohio native grabs the attention of his foes early and often as you can see their body language change when they eat the first strike. Garbrandt exudes tremendous confidence after finding the chin of his opponent a few times, which leads to an onslaught of power punches seeking the finish.

This fight has all the bad blood – former teammates and a rematch for the belt. This will be exciting whether it goes for one round or the full five. It’ll be interesting how Garbrandt returns from his first professional defeat: Will he still have that confidence that breaks his opponent’s will? Dillashaw is always continuing to improve and a change of camps has helped him fix any small holes he may have had before, which is a nightmare for challengers in this division. Both fighters were rocked in the first fight but it was Dillashaw landing the final blow. Can he repeat and hold onto his belt or has Garbrandt learned from his mistakes and can he reclaim his championship?

Prediction: Cody Garbrandt (+105) by knockout

Demetrious Johnson vs Henry Cejudo 2

Another fight and another huge favorite for flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson. Arguably the best pound-for-pound fighter has been -500 or better in seven of his last eight fights and has opened at -500 for his rematch against Henry Cejudo. The last time they fought at UFC 197 was the only bout of the last eight that Johnson didn’t close at -500 or better as he closed at -350. Since the flyweight division was established in 2012, DJ hasn’t lost, riding a 13-fight winning streak including 11 title defenses. There’s not much value to bet on Mighty Mouse SU. However, you can find plus-money on Sportsbook if you bet on whether he finishes by submission or T/KO. Personally, I like the submission.

Johnson (-500) is as dominant a fighter as we have seen since GSP and Anderson Silva in their primes. Finding a flaw in “Mighty Mouse” is like finding a needle in a haystack. DJ pushes the fight every second he’s in the cage and with his lightning-quick speed, he doesn’t allow his opponents to catch a breath. The 31-year-old is well-balanced, landing 3.44 strikes per minute while landing an average of 3.54 takedowns per 15 minutes. Additionally, DJ absorbs just 1.64 significant strikes per minute and has earned performance of the night in four of his last six fights.

Johnson was taken down early in the first fight with Cejudo but was able to get back to his feet quickly and then went on the attack. “Mighty Mouse” then swarmed Cejudo and finished him with nasty knees to the body in the first round. It should be noted that DJ hasn’t fought since UFC 2016 as he has been rehabbing from shoulder surgery.

Cejudo (+350) has terrific wrestling, earning a gold medal at the 2008 Olympic Games. However, inside the Octagon, “The Messenger” has only secured 38 percent of his takedowns, relying more on his improving striking rather than his wrestling. Much of this could be pointed to his takedown attempts not being set up well with his hands. This has changed since he’s shown new power in his striking. He earned an early second-round knockout over Wilson Reis at UFC 215 that got the notice from the rest of the division.

Although Cejudo has shown improvements on the feet and his wrestling accolades speak for themselves, it’s just likely not enough to dethrone the king. “Mighty Mouse” is always evolving and looking for new ways to finish the fight. DJ had a massive advantage in the standup exchanges in the first fight and didn’t get an opportunity to show off his submission skills. I think Cejudo will be seeking the takedown again and Johnson may encourage it and secure yet another armbar.

Prediction: Demetrious Johnson (-500) via submission

Cub Swanson vs Renato Moicano

The odds for this fight are a bit curious. Longtime veteran Cub Swanson opened as a +300 underdog against rising fighter Renato Moicano, who comes back as a -400 favorite. Since 2012, Swanson is 10-4 in the Octagon with his only losses coming to top contenders Frankie Edgar (twice) and Brian Ortega, as well as the current champion, Max Holloway. Yet, he is a huge underdog to Moicano, whose big win was a split decision over Jeremy Stephens. There could be value to wager on Swanson for this bout.

Swanson (+250) loves a good phone-booth style of fight, willing to stand and bang with the best of them. Cub averages 4.15 strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.27 significant strikes per minute – he can take it and dish it out. Swanson has only been T/KO’d once in his career, back in 2009 against Jose Aldo. Three of Cub’s last four losses have come by submission so he will want to avoid the floor against a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt in Moicano. Swanson has outstruck his opponents by more than 10 strikes in five of his last six fights.

Moicano (-325), much like many Brazilian fighters, mixes up his strikes with crisp punches followed by nasty kicks. As mentioned before, Moicano also possesses a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, which makes him dangerous in every aspect of the fight. The 29-year-old has outstruck his opponents by 20 or more in three of his last four fights, including his last bout where he landed 117 strikes to his opponent Calvin Kattar’s 41. Yet, with a strong output from the Brazilian, he hasn’t secured a single T/KO, winning seven of his 12 fights by decision and five by submission.

If Moicano elects to keep the fight standing with Swanson, he could be in trouble. His chin was tested early by Kattar and he was rocked, though he recovered quickly. Cub, on the other hand, has finished 11 of his 25 wins by T/KO and knows how to put a rocked opponent away. Moicano’s path to victory is getting the fight to the ground where he can exploit Swanson’s submission defense weakness. I think this fight will be back and forth with a huge potential to be the fight of the night.

Prediction: Cub Swanson (+250) via decision

Polyana Viana vs J.J. Aldrich

Polyana Viana makes her second walk to the Octagon and does so as a -280 favorite over opponent J.J. Aldrich, who comes back at +220. This is a classic striker vs grappler matchup with Aldrich relying on her standup where she averages 4.07 strikes per minute and Viana having finished her last three fights by submission. Viana closed as a -425 favorite in her first UFC fight with Maia Stevenson, finishing that fight with a first-round rear-naked choke. Meanwhile, this is the first time Aldrich is the underdog since her debut against Juliana Lima in 2016 when she lost by decision.

Viana (-150) is, simply put, a finisher. She has 11 pro fights, 10 of which were victories, and nine of those were first-round finishes. “Dama de Ferro” isn’t just a one-trick pony either as she has four finishes by T/KO, but more recently she has won five of her last six fights by submission. The 26-year-old has won many state championships in Brazil in jiu-jitsu and won a world championship in jiu-jitsu in 2015. There’s no hiding what Viana will be hunting for and that’s another first-round submission.

Aldrich (+120) has good striking and likes to mix it up with her opponents, averaging 4.07 strikes per minute while absorbing 4.13 significant strikes per minute. She has narrowly outstruck her foes by a total of eight strikes over her last two bouts. Aldrich also outstruck Juliana Lima 111-90 in her debut but was taken down four times and subsequently was saddled with the loss. J.J.’s last four fights have gone to decision and she has had her hand raised on three of those occasions. Prior to this decision streak, Aldrich had back-to-back first-round T/KOs.

Aldrich will have to dig deep and do everything she can to keep this fight standing because if it goes to the floor Viana will have a massive advantage and will surely be hunting the submission. I think Aldrich is a good battler, but overall, I don’t think she has enough to earn a victory over Polyana.

Prediction: Polyana Viana (-150) via submission

Thiago Santos vs Kevin Holland

A late addition to the card is Thiago Santos vs Kevin Holland with Santos Sportsbook as a huge -400 favorite and Holland coming back at +300. I actually thought these odds might favor Santos more due to his impressive knockout power, taking on a fighter in Holland who earned a unanimous decision victory in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series. However, Holland was unable to get the excitement out of Mr. White and was left without a contract, but Dana loves when you step up on late notice. As for the odds, -400 for Santos seems about right. He deserves to be the heavy favorite and will likely back that up in the first round.

Santos (-360) has scary knockout power, whether it be with his hands or his vicious kicks. In addition to power, “de Lima Marreta” pushes the pace with an aggressive style that has allowed him to outstrike his opponents by 25 or more strikes in four of his last five fights, each of those four fights ending in a T/KO victory for Santos. The Brazilian had his four-fight winning streak come to an end when he was finished in the first round by David Branch in April. Expect more of the same from the 34-year-old as he’s done in his career: Get in the face of his opponent and look for the knockout.

Holland (+270) is making the jump from Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series to the big leagues. “Trailblazer” appeared in episode 1 of season 2 of DWTNCS when he earned a unanimous decision victory over Will Santiago. Holland showed off impressive striking using his long 81-inch reach to keep his opponent at bay. He mixes up his striking with a stiff jab and high kicks but tends to carry his hands low. The 25-year-old showed off a lot of confidence in his DWTNCS fight, sharing words with his opponent’s cornermen which led to him getting hit and taken down as he wasn’t paying attention to his foe.

Holland is making a huge jump up in competition and I think it may be too much too soon. Santos is an absolute beast who enters each fight looking for devastating knockouts. I don’t imagine this fight will get out of the first round with Santos getting his hand raised in the end.

Prediction: Thiago Santos (-360) by knockout.