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UFC 127 Betting Update

Matchups are finally set for UFC 127 and a lot is on the line for MMA legend B.J. Penn. The betting line on a Penn upset has moved a bit over the last couple of weeks, but not in the direction towards a Penn upset.

The best price now on Penn beating Jon Fitch is a +175 line at 5Dimes. Bovada still has the cheapest price on the favorite Fitch at -200.

[ See odds on over-unders for rounds in the main fights below ]

Penn’s only losses in the Octagon at Welterweight came at the hands of Georges St-Pierre and Matt Hughes. Fitch will not be a wiry evasive Lightweight like Frank Edgar was, and if Penn catches Fitch with a big shot an upset could become a reality.

This one will come down to one thing - if Fitch can get Penn on his back. If he can we may be watching the beginning of the end of B.J. Penn. Betting on Fitch’s wrestling ability has been a pretty sound wager over the last couple of years; look for Fitch to win by unanimous decision.

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The fight that has the big upset opportunity is the co-main event between Michael Bisping and Jorge Rivera. The over-priced line on Bisping has dropped down a bit since the original release, but even the lowered -325 line at Bovada looks pricey. We saw how well Bisping handles a big right hand when Dan Henderson caught him, and Rivera has fast hands and a club for a right hand.

Despite the line on Bisping dropping a bit, the upset price on Rivera has remained at +300. Rivera knows that this is his last chance at becoming a contender and he’s fighting for the memory of a daughter that he recently lost. His style of fighting will match up well against Bisping in the Octagon as long as they stand up, so a key to victory for Rivera will be to stay off his back.

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The best betting news for the UFC 127 fight card is how much the price on George Sotiropoulos has dropped in the last few days. At one point two weeks ago the cheapest line on him was -515, but now you can bet on Sotiropoulos to beat Dennis Siver for as cheaply as -335 at 5Dimes. That bet is easily the best choice on the card for your safe-money action.

If you’d like to wager on a fight that could go either way the closest line on the UFC 127 fight card is the Nick Ring vs. Riki Fukuda matchup. Ring is a slight +105 underdog, while Fukuda will cost -125 as the favorite.

OVER-UNDER Rounds - UFC 127 ODDS courtesy of 5Dimes

UFC 127 - Lightweight 3 rounds -
1501   Spencer Fisher        +155    Over 2½ -230
1502   Ross Pearson        -175     Under 2½ +190

UFC 127 - Light Heavyweight 3 rounds -
1601   Alexander Gustafsson        -310    Over 1½ +135
1602   James Te Huna            +255     Under 1½ -165

UFC 127 - Middleweight 3 rounds -
1701   Riki Fukuda        -130     Over 2½ -205
1702   Nick Ring        +110    Under 2½ +165

UFC 127 - Welterweight 3 rounds -
1301   Brian Ebersole        +230    Over 2½ -190
1302   Chris Lytle        -270    Under 2½ +158

UFC 127 - Middleweight 3 rounds -
1401   Chris Camozzi        +175    Over 2½ -210
1402   Kyle Noke        -210    Under 2½ +168

UFC 127 - Lightweight 3 rounds -
1201   Dennis Siver            +280    Over 1½ -160
1202   George Sotiropoulos        -340    Under 1½ +13

UFC 127 - Middleweight 3 rounds -
1101   Jorge Rivera        +270    Over 2½ +110
1102   Michael Bisping        -330     Under 2½ -140

UFC 127 - Welterweight 3 rounds -
1001   BJ Penn        +175    Over 2½ -280
1002   Jon Fitch    -210    Under 2½ +220