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UFC 127: Penn vs. Fitch

Jon Fitch wants to prove to everyone that he’s one of the best fighters in the world, and he’ll get an opportunity at UFC 127 to potentially send a legend into early retirement. That legend is B.J. Penn, and he will be looking to take a big step up the Welterweight ladder with a win over another top-ranked 170 pounder.

Even though Penn looked impressive against former Welterweight champion Matt Hughes his last time in the Octagon, oddsmakers at Sportsbook.ag will pay +160 on a Penn victory. It’s one thing to beat an over-the-hill Hughes; it’s a much different thing to beat a hungry Fitch.

If Penn could not handle the pace that Frank Edgar put on him, what’s he going to do against the relentless pace that Fitch will bring?

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Fitch looks like safe money as the MMA odds -185 favorite at 5Dimes. Some books are as expensive as -455. Look for Fitch to dominate and score numerous takedowns followed by ground-and-pound; much the way that Georges St-Pierre handled Penn in their last fight. Fitch via unanimous decision.

Michael Bisping will be put to the test against hard-hitting Jorge Rivera in the co-main event of UFC 127. It should be a striking battle that could easily produce an entertaining knockout. Of all the fights on the UFC 127 card this one has the most potential for an upset. With MMA odds of -340 at 5Dimes, a bet on Bisping looks a little pricy.

It may be worth the risk to go with Rivera scoring a big upset. He’s on an impressive three-fight win streak and hasn’t lost a fight since mid-2008. The much-improved Rivera should also hold a slight edge if the fight ends up going to the ground, and at +300 at Sportsbook.ag the price looks right for the upset pick.

If you’re looking for the safest money on the UFC 127 fight card you’ll want to go with hometown boy George Sotiropoulos. The last thing Dana White wants to see is their Australian poster boy losing at home, so they’ve matched him up against one-dimensional German striker Dennis Siver.

The Bovada price on Sotiropoulos isn’t cheap at -515, but the likelihood of him getting Siver to the ground and submitting him is pretty high. Siver will not be able to match ground skills with the Australian and will probably be submitted in the first or second round.

Don’t waste your money on a Siver upset bet that will only pay +315 at Bovada.