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UFC 195: Betting Odds and Predictions

Robbie Lawler

UFC 195 features a highly anticipated welterweight title fight between Robbie Lawler and Carlos Condit. Two of the top strikers in the weight class will clash at the MGM Grand in what is sure to be a slugfest. The co-main event will feature a heavyweight title eliminator when Stipe Miocic faces off against the resurgent Andrei Arlovski.

Robbie Lawler (-115) vs Carlos Condit (-115)

Lawler will make his first appearance in the octagon since a bloody five-round war against Rory MacDonald at UFC 189, which most pundits named the top fight of 2015. During Lawler’s current stint with the UFC he is 7-1 with four T/KO victories.

Early in his career Lawler was known largely as a wrestler but since joining American Top Team he has become one of the hardest hitting strikers in the weight class. Lawler has shown some variation in his striking, but does strike primarily to boxing as he displays a fantastic one-two combo that he will follow with either a big right hook or right leg kick. The one fault to his standup game is he tends to leave his head still and takes a lot of punishment, which is a concern.

Condit has a killer instinct that is unrivalled in the sport. His striking is varied with spinning kicks, flying knees, and pretty much every other kind of strike in his repertoire. ‘The Natural Born Killer’ is only one fight removed from a knee injury that kept him on the shelf for more than a year, but he did not seem to lose a step in a beat down of Thiago Alves.

Expect this fight to be a slugfest as both men love to bang. I tend to think Condit holds the edge with a more varied attack and less wear on his body. However, Lawler does have solid wrestling that he has rarely used offensively, but Condit has questionable takedown defense, which could make ‘Ruthless’ to pull his wrestling out of his pocket. But if we learned anything from the MacDonald fight, Lawler has no problem taking the beating. The guy is a warrior, but if you live by the sword you will eventually die by the sword.

Pick: Carlos Condit (-115)

Stipe Miocic (-225) vs Andrei Arlovski (+175)

Miocic is one of the most well rounded fighters in the heavyweight division. He is a master at using his length and feints to control a fight from the outside and looking for his opportunity to come inside to bang. The Ohio-native was also a NCAA D1 wrestler to go along with his golden gloves in boxing. Miocic will usually go for a single leg takedown in the middle of the octagon, but we saw him go to double leg frequently against Junior dos Santos two fights ago.

Since re-joining the UFC, Arlovski is 4-0 with wins over Bigfoot, Travis Browne and Frank Mir. ‘Pitbull’ is a classic slip and rip boxer, meaning he prefers to counter punch, which he is one of the best at. His training at Jackson-Wink MMA and under legendary boxing trainer Freddie Roach has made him one of the most complete strikers in MMA today. Arlovski is an International Master of Sport in Sambo and a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, so he is a capable grappler, but he would rather be standing up and boxing.  

This fight will be another banger with both men likely opting to turn this into more of a boxing match than anything else. Miocic has the superior length and should outpoint Arlovski if he stays outside, but Miocic has a tendency to rush in at inopportune times. One step into Arlovski and any fighter will likely be staring at the ceiling.

Pick: Andrei Arlovski (+175)

Lorenz Larkin (+195) vs Albert Tumenov (-250)

Larkin is undefeated since moving down to welterweight with two TKO victories in 2015. ‘The Monsoon’ will look to keep the fight standing as he has won 10 of his 16 wins via T/KO. He uses wrestling defensively to keep the fight upright, but does not offer much once he is taken down. Larkin’s chin is far from the greatest, but he has only ever been put down by heavy-handed fighters.

If Larkin wants to bang, Tumenov will happily oblige. The Russian has won 11 fights via T/KO and has never lost by way of stoppage. Tumenov has ended three of his past four fights within the first round and has rocks for hands. However, if Tumenov does not end it quick he has been shown to gas out.

Tumenov should be too much for Larkin to handle early. The Russian is one of the most powerful strikers at the weight class and Larkin’s chin will not likely hold up to that beating.

Pick: Albert Tumenov (-250)

Diego Brandao (+170) vs Brian Ortega (-210)

Brandao is a finisher pure and simple. 13 of Brandao’s 20 career wins have come before the start of the second, including his last two outings. ‘DB’ has had an up and down career in the UFC, but his explosiveness on his feet and on the ground make him a dangerous fight no matter who is standing across the octagon.

‘T-City’ Brian Ortega is an undefeated prospect that would have been 2-0 in the UFC if he had not tested positive for a banned substance following his debut with the company. Ortega has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and will look to take this fight to the ground to capitalize on his submission game.

Had Ortega’s fight UFC fight not been deemed a No Contest he would certainly have more hype surrounding him. This fight will be tougher for Ortega than the odds indicate, but I still believe he gets it done.

Pick: Brian Ortega (-210)

Abel Trujillo (+105) vs Tony Sims (-135)

Trujillo is coming into this fight with something to prove after his last fight was controversially ended. Trujillo neither tapped nor was unconscious when the referee called it off in the first round against Gleison Tibau. ‘Killa’ has violent intentions behind every punch, but a lack of defensive grappling ability has exposed his weaknesses on the ground.

Sims has made a career out of staying vertical with 10 of his 12 professional wins coming via T/KO. However, Olivier Aubin-Mercier dominated Sims in his last fight after being exposed on the ground.

Don’t expect a three-round fight here as both men will likely come out throwing bombs. Either Trujillo or Sims could win this fight within 30 seconds, but I like Trujillo’s experience and violent punches to win this one.

Pick: Abel Trujillo (+105)

UFC 195 Betting Odds

Odds as of December 29 at Bovada

  • Robbie Lawler -115
  • Carlos Condit -115
  • Stipe Miocic -225
  • Andrei Arlovski +175
  • Lorenz Larkin +195
  • Albert Tumenov -250
  • Brian Ortega -210
  • Diego Brandao +170
  • Abel Trujillo +105
  • Tony Sims -135
  • Michael McDonald -550
  • Masanori Kanehara +375
  • Kyle Noke -305
  • Alex Morono +235
  • Justine Nish -270
  • Nina Ansaroff +210
  • Scott Holtzman -165
  • Drew Dober +135
  • Joseph Duffy -190
  • Dustin Poirier +155
  • Joe Soto -115
  • Michinori Tanaka -115
  • Sheldon Westcott -165
  • Edgar Garcia +135