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UFC 200 Undercard Betting Preview and Odds

The UFC 200 undercard looks so good that it would put some past pay-per-view events to shame — I’m looking at you UFC 122, 149 and 177. The undercard is overflowing with former title holders, former title contenders, and popular winners of The Ultimate Fighter reality show. Oh yeah, and there’s that Sage Northcutt guy.

Here’s a look at each of the undercard fights and my thoughts on their odds:

Cat Zingano vs Julianna Pena

The No. 3 and No. 5 ranked women’s bantamweights will headline the prelims in a fight that could potentially set the winner up for a title shot. Coming in at +145, Pena is one of my favorite underdogs on the card as I think Zingano (-175) will be hurt by her long layoff. Prior to a brutal knee injury, Pena won season 18 of TUF. Following her recovery, she picked up where she left off with two straight wins. Pena has never been an underdog in the UFC.

The 34-year-old Zingano hasn’t stepped foot in the Octagon in a year and a half, but still sits high in the rankings due to what she accomplished before her embarrassing 14-second loss to Ronda Rousey. In eight of her nine career wins, she finished her opponent.

This is definitely Pena’s toughest test to date, as Zingano’s 9-1 record includes TKO finishes over the two women fighting for the title later in the evening — Miesha Tate and Amanda Nunes.

Johny Hendricks vs Kelvin Gastelum

Former welterweight champ Johny Hendricks, a slight -120 favorite, will attempt to rebound from being finished for the first time in his career against a suddenly inconsistent Kelvin Gastelum. Hendricks has looked like a different man since dropping the title and is surrounded by red flags entering the fight. It’s been a rough 2016 for Big Rigg as he had a fight canceled due to an inability to make weight, and his stock took a serious dive after getting dominated by Stephen Thompson in February.

After opening his UFC career with five straight wins, Gastelum (-110) has lost two of his last three fights and has had weight issues of his own, missing weight in two fights over the last two years. Gastelum has closed as an underdog just once in his eight UFC fights — he won the fight against Urijah Hall as a +220 dog in the TUF 17 Finale.

TJ Dillashaw vs Raphael Assuncao

This is perhaps the most overlooked fight on UFC 200. Dillashaw is a close loss to Dominick Cruz removed from being considered one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world and will put himself in contention to redeem that loss with a win over Assuncao. Dillashaw is a massive -400 favorite — the biggest chalk on the card. The lopsided line is surprising to me, considering Assuncao has a split-decision win over TJ in 2013. Dillashaw was a -260 fave in that fight.

As for Assuncao (+300), he’s the #3 ranked bantamweight in the UFC and is currently riding a seven-fight win streak. However, and it’s a BIG however, he hasn’t fought since October 2014, so if rust is a concern for you, I’d stay away from the dog in this scrap.

If you’re siding with the big favorite in this one, consider the better value you’ll get with a prop bet on Dillashaw to finish the Brazilian. He’s nicknamed Killashaw for a reason, as he’s finished his opponent in six of his last seven wins.

Sage Northcutt vs Enrique Marin

Based on his last performance in the Octagon, Super Sage Northcutt is being super overvalued in this scrap as a -340 favorite. The submission loss to Bryan Barberena, which he was heavily ridiculed for, was the first loss of his career. He was apparently sick going into the fight, which is a legit excuse depending on the severity of his illness, so perhaps we should give the 20-year-old a pass, considering his 7-1 record includes seven finishes — three of them coming in the first round.

So, we all know the potential is there, but is Enrique Marin (+260) just a bone the UFC is throwing to him? In a card stacked with household names, Marin is basically an unknown and is the only fighter on UFC 200 without a Wikipedia page. And no, I wasn’t using Wikipedia to research this fight. The Spanish fighter lost his UFC debut in November, but prior to entering the UFC he had four straight submission wins — three of which occurred in the first round.

Northcutt showed he was green when it came to submission defense his last time out, and Marin’s bread and butter appears to be his ground game. If it stays on the feet, Super Sage should take care of business, but there’s too much unknown and too little value to risk big money on Northcutt — or even worse, have him crash your parlay ticket.

Diego Sanchez vs Joe Lauzon

There’s a word for this type of fight. That word is barnburner. Sanchez and Lauzon are two of the scrappiest fighters in the history of the 155 lbs division and between them, they have 13 Fight of the Night bonuses. Unfortunately, the fighters have also combined to go just 5-5 in their last 10 fights, making them non-factors in the lightweight title picture as they’re both ranked outside the top 15 in the division.

Sanchez has competed in four divisions in the UFC, but has gone 5-4 at 155 lbs. The New Mexico native has gone to a decision in an amazing 10 straight fights, dating all the way back to UFC 114 vs John Hathaway. Sanchez is a slight dog in this one, coming in at -110, which is nothing new to him, as he's been the underdog in eight of his last nine fights, going 5-4 during that span. Maybe there’s something about that desert air though, as The Nightmare has an 8-1 record when fighting in Las Vegas.

Lauzon (-120) has never really been able to get over the hump in the UFC. He started his UFC career with three straight wins, but in his 17 fights since, he’s never been able to win more than two in a row. Lauzon is the definition of an all-or-nothing fighter, as he’s been finished in seven of his 11 career losses, but in his 25 career wins, he’s finished his opponent an incredible 24 times. And in case you’re wondering, Lauzon is 1-4 when fighting in Sin City.

Gegard Mousasi vs Thiago Santos

Will Mousasi ever reach the potential many saw in him prior to fighting in the UFC? Looking at his 38-6 record, he has wins over notable fighters such as Hector Lombard, Jacare, Mark Hunt and OSP, but the issue is all those wins came prior to fighting in the UFC. He has a modest 4-3 record since joining the UFC, but is 3-1 in his last four fights, so perhaps he’s about to hit his stride.

Stepping in on short notice, Santos will face the biggest challenge of his career and his +215 price tag reflects that. He’s won twice before as an underdog in the UFC — +455 over Ronny Markes and +165 over Elias Theodorou. The Brazilian is currently riding a four-fight win streak which is the second-longest streak of any fighter on the undercard.

Of Santos’ 13 wins, eight are by T/KO, but he might be hard-pressed to finish Mousasi who’s only been T/KO’d once in his 46 fights. As a result of that, combined with the late notice, Mousasi at -280 looks like a safe bet, and possibly a nice throw-in on a parlay ticket.

Jim Miller vs Takanori Gomi

In what I view as a poor man’s version of Lauzon vs Sanchez, I have Miller as my lock of the undercard when he steps in to take on the Fireball Kid in the opening fight on UFC 200. Between them, they have six Fight of the Night bonuses, but as their records indicate, they’re both on the downside of their careers.

Once upon a time, Miller was knocking on the door for a title shot after a seven-fight win streak from 2009 to 2011, but a step up in competition has been too much for him to handle as he’s lost to basically any serious contender that he’s faced — Ben Henderson, Nate Diaz, Donald Cerrone, and more recently, Beneil Dariush and Mike Chiesa. He does, however, have a glowing record against average and above-average fighters, which is the exact category Gomi falls into.

Now 37 years old, Gomi has been unable to capture the success he had in PRIDE in the UFC. In 10 UFC fights, he has a 4-6 record. He was once considered one of the top lightweights in the world, but only two of his 13 career T/KO wins have come in the UFC, with the last one occurring in 2012. A Gomi loss would be his fourth in five fights and would likely result in a pink slip.

Click here for Justin Hartling's betting preview for UFC 200's main card

Here’s a look at the complete list of odds for UFC 200:

UFC 200 – Las Vegas, Nevada

Odds as of July 9 at Bovada

  • Mark Hunt -170
  • Brock Lesnar +145
  • Miesha Tate -260
  • Amanda Nunes +200
  • Jose Aldo +100
  • Frankie Edgar -130
  • Cain Velasquez -300
  • Travis Browne +230
  • Jim Miller -275
  • Takanori Gomi +215
  • Gegard Mousasi -280
  • Thiago Santos +220
  • Diego Sanchez -115
  • Joe Lauzon -115
  • Sage Northcutt -350
  • Enrique Marin +265
  • T.J. Dillashaw -400
  • Raphael Assuncao +300
  • Johny Hendricks -115
  • Kelvin Gastelum -115
  • Cat Zingano -155
  • Julianna Pena  +125

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