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UFC 200: Why Brock Lesnar Beats Mark Hunt

UFC 200 will see the return of one of the biggest draws in the history of MMA, as Brock Lesnar makes his first walk to the Octagon in over four years. Expectations are relatively low for Lesnar in the eyes of many MMA fans, but he has the tools to pick up his first win since 2010.

Can Brock Lesnar beat Mark Hunt? Yes. Will Brock Lesnar beat Mark Hunt? Yes. And here are three reasons why.

Brock Can Control The Action

Mark Hunt is a predator. He efficiently moves around the Octagon and draws opponents into fighting a slower pace that fits his style. Brock Lesnar cannot allow Hunt to dictate the pace and allow the speed of the fight to slow. 

Lesnar has always been fuelled by aggression in the octagon – even though that has been to his detriment several times. Hunt is a dangerous counter-striker – which could mean Brock charging in gets him into plenty of trouble – but Lesnar will need to take the initial risk in order to get the Kiwi backing up. Lesnar relies on athleticism and power more than anything and the slower the fight goes, the more that advantage is diminished. 

Hunt wins more often than not when he is allowed to dictate the pace. Being overly aggressive against Hunt is extremely dangerous, but Lesnar has the aggressive style to push forward and force his opponent off their gameplan.

Get A Takedown for the Love Of God

Brock can survive for a period of time if this fight is standing, but it’s only a matter of time before he gets his head knocked off if he keeps the fight there. Lesnar is a wrestler and he needs to use his strength and athleticism to get this fight on the mat.

It is also key that Lesnar gets the takedown himself and doesn’t allow Hunt to take him there. Hunt has had a tendency to take down opponents who have good ground games – see the Fabricio Werdum and Stefan Struve fights. Lesnar’s MMA losses have all come when he has been put on his back and the former WWE Champion has some porous defense from that position.

If Brock gets this fight onto the mat – which I believe he does – then he should easily be able to ground and pound Hunt until the ref is forced to step in.

Brock Has Something To Prove

You can’t exactly quantify this, but Lesnar needs this way more than Hunt. Brock has been away from the game for over four years and he did not end his previous stint with the UFC in the best of ways. It was Brock who called Dana White and said he wanted to fight again.

In an interview with Megan Olivi, Brock said that he needed time away to fix himself both physically and mentally. Lesnar has had time to mature – he will be 38 when he enters the Octagon at UFC 200.

A loss for Hunt doesn’t greatly affect his career. A loss for Lesnar all but eliminates his future in MMA. Brock is dangerous anyways, but backing him into the corner is terrifying.

As always, Joe Osborne disagrees with me and thinks Mark Hunt wins the fight. Check out his reasoning here.

Brock Lesnar vs Mark Hunt Betting Odds - UFC 200

Odds as of July 7 at Bovada

  • Mark Hunt -175
  • Brock Lesnar +145