Click here for 2017's article.
2015 was a historic year for upsets in the UFC. Seven titles changed hands during the year, and no upset was bigger than Holly Holm’s over the once-invincible Ronda Rousey. For the year, underdogs posted a 180-288 record vs favorites, earning the W in 38.5% of fights. Will 2016 once again be a big year for the underdog, or will the favorites simply do what they’re supposed to do?
After each UFC event, OddsShark will update the year-to-date underdogs vs favorites record using the closing lines for each fight, as well as the records for each event with the biggest upset on each card. We'll also take a look at how profitable underdogs are based on a $100 bet on every underdog on every card.
Here’s how things stack up so far this year:
| Event | Underdog Wins | Favorite Wins | Biggest Upset(s) |
|---|---|---|---|
| YEAR-TO-DATE | 179 | 307 | Eric Spicely (+500) over Thiago Santos |
| UFC Fight Night 81 | 7 | 6 | Eddie Alvarez (+285) over Anthony Pettis |
| UFC 195 | 4 | 8 | Alex Morono (+300) over Kyle Noke |
| UFC on Fox 18* | 5 | 7 | Bryan Barberena (+220) over S. Northcutt |
| UFC Fight Night 82 | 6 | 6 | Diego Rivas (+275) over Noah Lahat |
| UFC Fight Night 83 | 3 | 10 | Nathan Coy (+200) over Jonavin Webb |
| UFC Fight Night 84 | 2 | 11 | Michael Bisping (+210) over A. Silva |
| UFC 196 | 8 | 4 | Nate Diaz (+300) over Conor McGregor |
| UFC Fight Night 85** | 5 | 6 | Daniel Kelly (+325) over Antonio Carlos Junior |
| UFC Fight Night 86 | 5 | 8 | Francis Ngannou (+140) over Curtis Blaydes |
| UFC on Fox 19 | 3 | 8 | Cezar Ferreira (+160) over Oluwale Bamgbose |
| UFC 197 | 2 | 10 | Walt Harris (+155) over Cody East |
| UFC Fight Night 87 | 3 | 10 | Reza Madadi (+135) over Yan Cabral |
| UFC 198* | 5 | 6 | Bryan Barberena (+400) over Warllee Alves |
| UFC Fight Night 88 | 7 | 5 | Bryan Caraway (+245) over Aljamain Sterling |
| UFC 199* | 5 | 7 | Michael Bisping (+425) over Luke Rockhold |
| UFC Fight Night 89 | 3 | 10 | Krzysztof Jotko (+150) over Tamdan McCrory |
| UFC Fight Night 90 | 4 | 8 | Eddie Alvarez (+265) over Rafael dos Anjos |
| TUF 23 Finale | 4 | 8 | Kevin Lee (+145) over Jake Matthews |
| UFC 200 | 5 | 7 | Amanda Nunes (+205) over Miesha Tate |
| UFC Fight Night 91 | 9 | 3 | Tim Boetsch (+180) over Josh Samman |
| UFC on Fox 20 | 5 | 6 | Valentina Shevchenko (+175) over Holly Holm |
| UFC 201* | 4 | 6 | Jake Ellenberger (+230) over Matt Brown |
| UFC Fight Night 92 | 1 | 11 | Trevor Smith (+110) over Joseph Gigliotti |
| UFC 202 | 3 | 9 | Mike Perry (+215) over Hyun Gyu Lim |
| UFC on Fox 21 | 3 | 7 | Felipe Silva (+140) over Shane Campbell |
| UFC Fight Night 93 | 3 | 8 | Peter Sobota (+170) over Nicolas Dalby |
| UFC 203 | 1 | 9 | Bethe Correia (+105) over Jessica Eye |
| UFC Fight Night 94* | 4 | 8 | Michael Johnson (+140) over Dustin Poirier |
| UFC Fight Night 95 | 6 | 7 | Eric Spicely (+500) over Thiago Santos |
| UFC Fight Night 96 | 8 | 4 | Brandon Moreno (+375) over Louis Smolka |
| UFC 204 | 4 | 7 | Leon Edwards (+180) over Albert Tumenov |
| UFC Fight Night 98 | 4 | 9 | Diego Sanchez (+225) over Marcin Held |
| UFC 205* | 5 | 5 | Yoel Romero (+175) over Chris Weidman |
| UFC Fight Night 99 | 4 | 9 | Artem Lobov (+220) over Teruto Ishihara |
| UFC Fight Night 100 | 5 | 7 | Antigulov (+145) over Rogerio De Lima |
| UFC Fight Night 101 | 6 | 7 | Andrew Holbrook (+375) over Jake Matthews |
| TUF 24 Finale | 2 | 10 | Jared Cannonier (+185) over Ion Cutelaba |
| UFC Fight Night 102 | 0 | 12 | N/A |
| UFC 206 | 7 | 5 | Cub Swanson (+175) over Doo Ho Choi |
| UFC on Fox 22 | 6 | 7 | Leslie Smith (+240) over Irene Aldana |
| UFC 207 | 3 | 6 | Cody Garbrandt (+185) over Dominick Cruz |
*event featured a draw, **event featured a fight with even odds
| Event | Underdog Wins | Favorite Wins | Profit Based on $100 Underdog Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| YEAR-TO-DATE | 179 | 307 | -$3321.49 |
| UFC Fight Night 81 | 7 | 6 | $465 |
| UFC 195 | 4 | 8 | -$75 |
| UFC on Fox 18* | 5 | 7 | $145.91 |
| UFC Fight Night 82 | 6 | 6 | $435.24 |
| UFC Fight Night 83 | 3 | 10 | -$535 |
| UFC Fight Night 84 | 2 | 11 | -$750 |
| UFC 196 | 8 | 4 | $1115.23 |
| UFC Fight Night 85** | 5 | 6 | $225.91 |
| UFC Fight Night 86 | 5 | 8 | -$255.59 |
| UFC on Fox 19 | 3 | 8 | -$390 |
| UFC 197 | 2 | 10 | -$690 |
| UFC Fight Night 87 | 3 | 10 | -$620 |
| UFC 198 | 5 | 6 | $380 |
| UFC Fight Night 88 | 7 | 5 | $490 |
| UFC 199 | 5 | 7 | $350.24 |
| UFC Fight Night 89 | 3 | 10 | -$474.09 |
| UFC Fight Night 90 | 4 | 8 | -$224.09 |
| TUF 23 Finale | 4 | 8 | -$285 |
| UFC 200 | 5 | 7 | -$39.76 |
| UFC Fight Night 91 | 9 | 3 | $960 |
| UFC on Fox 20 | 5 | 6 | $25 |
| UFC 201 | 4 | 6 | $95.91 |
| UFC Fight Night 92 | 1 | 11 | -$990 |
| UFC 202 | 3 | 9 | -$465 |
| UFC on Fox 21 | 3 | 7 | -$330 |
| UFC Fight Night 93 | 3 | 8 | -$405 |
| UFC 203 | 1 | 9 | -$795 |
| UFC Fight Night 94* | 4 | 8 | -$349.09 |
| UFC Fight Night 95 | 6 | 7 | $460.24 |
| UFC Fight Night 96 | 8 | 4 | $1010.24 |
| UFC 204 | 4 | 7 | -$75 |
| UFC Fight Night 98 | 4 | 7 | -$344.76 |
| UFC 205* | 5 | 5 | $175 |
| UFC Fight Night 99 | 4 | 9 | -$235 |
| UFC Fight Night 100 | 5 | 7 | -$100 |
| UFC Fight Night 101 | 6 | 7 | $300 |
| TUF 24 Finale | 2 | 10 | -$710 |
| UFC Fight Night 102 | 0 | 12 | -$1200 |
| UFC 206 | 7 | 5 | $285 |
| UFC on Fox 22 | 6 | 7 | $185.91 |
| UFC 207 | 3 | 6 | -$125 |
