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UFC 224 Best Bets

UFC 224 is stacked with plenty of fun and name brand UFC fighters looking to put on a show for the Brazilian crowd. Don’t get blinded by the flashy names of yesteryear or the exciting new prospects – keep a level head when betting on UFC 224. Here are some of the best bets, according to numbers, for UFC 224 on May 12.

John Lineker Is 6-0 In His Last 6 Fights Outside The U.S.

John Lineker is known for being a whirling dervish of pure violence and aggression who simply overwhelms his opponents with his ferocity. Since joining the UFC in 2012, Lineker is 11-3 with the company but what is most impressive is his performances outside the United States.

Lineker is 6-0 under the UFC banner in bouts held outside the U.S. – four of which took place in his home country of Brazil. Unsurprisingly, “Hands of Stone” entered five of those six bouts as a betting favorite with the lone exception being when he was a +110 underdog vs Azamat Gashimov (yeah, I don’t know who that is either).

With Lineker laying so much chalk in those fights, bettors have not made a ton of money backing the Brazilian – you would be up $289.70 if you bet $100 on each of his six fights outside America. However, Lineker is still a great piece of a parlay and this trend also suggests that maybe you should not back Brian Kelleher as an underdog in this bout.

Vitor Belfort Is 0-4 In His Last 4 Fights As An Underdog

Vitor Belfort’s peak has long since passed with “The Phenom” looking like a shell of his former self. And bettors should be cautious at the idea of backing him in what is supposed to be Belfort’s retirement fight, as he is 0-4 in his last four as a dog.

That record drops to 0-5 if you include a loss to Kelvin Gastelum that was eventually overturned after Gastelum tested positive for marijuana (yeah, I know). In all fairness, Belfort was a pretty hefty dog in most of those fights, so bettors would not be up a massive amount for fading the Brazilian in those outings.

For a more in-depth look at Belfort’s struggles as an underdog, I wrote a piece you can check out. This also includes the best way to make money when fading The Phenom.

Nick Hein Has Gone To A Decision In 6 Straight Fights

Nick Hein is a great athlete, a terrific judo practitioner and as tough as a two-dollar steak. All of those play into Hein also being one of the most consistent bets in the UFC to make it through all three rounds. The German has gone the distance in six straight fights – five of which were in the UFC – and has just one finish victory since 2011.

If you bet $100 on each of Hein’s last five fights to go the distance – I’d say six, but sportsbooks surprisingly don’t offer betting lines for Final Fight Championship – you would be up $379.09.  

Hein takes on Davi Ramos at UFC 224, in a bout that I expect to make it to the judges. Ramos is a submission artist by trade but that won’t do him any good if he can’t take Hein – the judo expert – down. And though Hein is explosive in his striking, he doesn’t exactly possess the power to knock many opponents out.

Other Notable UFC 224 Betting Trends & Info
  • Raquel Pennington has never fought outside the United States in her career.
  • Jacare Souza is 8-2 in his last 10 fights as favorite.
  • John Lineker is 7-0 in his last 7 fights as favorite.
  • Lyoto Machida is 1-3 in his last 4 fights against fighters with a winning UFC record.
  • Karl Roberson has won his last 5 fights via 1st round stoppage.
  • Thales Leites is 0-3 in his last 3 fights as an underdog.
  • Alberto Mina is 13-0 as a professional fighter – with 12 of those victories coming via stoppage.