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UFC 239: Naurdiev vs Rencountre Odds, Preview and Pick

UFC 239: Naurdiev vs Rencountre Preview and Pick

Christian Pina is a professional sports bettor and host of InsideVegas on the Sports Gambling Podcast Network as well as a contributor for CP Sports. He has provided a breakdown and pick for UFC 239. 

Chance Rencountre (+350) vs Ismail Naurdiev (-500)

Fresh off his massive upset (+350) of Michel Prazeres on short notice at UFC Fight Night 145, Ismail Naurdiev (18-2) looks to make it two in a row against Chance Rencountre (13-3). He has the benefit of a full training camp and now shifts from underdog to favorite, for good reason. “The Austrian Wonderboy” came into the UFC with 13 wins in his last 14 professional fights and has shown the ability to get a finish from anywhere at any time.

In his UFC debut against Prazeres, he couldn’t find the finish and was able to get his first decision win since his professional debut. To me, that’s much more impressive than a knockout because it shows he’s evolving. He also had a reputation for having shaky takedown defense and struggling with wrestlers, which both Prazeres and Chance Rencountre are. But he made significant improvements in the Prazeres fight and showed he can handle wrestling at the highest level.

Rencountre is also fresh off an underdog win against Kyle Stewart, although he lost his UFC debut, a short notice one against Belal Muhammad. Rencountre and Prazeres have a lot of similarities, although they are built differently. Rencountre just does everything a little bit more slowly with less power and I don’t see Rencountre having the boxing ability nor the wrestling to take on a guy like Ismail Naurdiev. His boxing style leaves him incredibly open and he doesn’t seem interested in stopping most punches that come his way.

On the surface, given how little is known about these two fighters, it’s possible Rencountre does have the actual wrestling advantage over Naurdiev. But with the rate Naurdiev has improved his takedown defense and what he showed against a classic pressure wrestler, I have to think it continues and he can learn from his last fight and apply it to this one, not to mention the total mismatch every time this fight is standing.

Ismail Naurdiev via knockout

UFC 239: Ismail Naurdiev vs Chance Rencountre Betting Odds
Ismail Naurdiev-450
Chance Rencountre+360

Odds as of July 4 at Bovada