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UFC 255 Odds & Expert Predictions: Flyweights On Display In Two Title Fights

The first pay-per-view card on American soil since August is set for this weekend as both the men’s and women’s flyweight titles will be on the line at the top of the bill for UFC 255. For the men, Deiveson Figueiredo takes on Alex Perez, while the women’s side has Valentina Shevchenko defending vs Jennifer Maia.

The event is taking place on Saturday, November 21, at the UFC Apex Performance Center. In the main event, Figueiredo defends his title against Perez, while in the co-main, Shevchenko looks to hold on to her belt against Maia. We have a full event betting preview, UFC predictions and the UFC 255 odds right here.

Online sportsbook Bovada has released UFC 255 odds and Figueiredo is the sizable -285 favorite in the main event with Perez coming back as a +225 underdog. This means you would have to wager $285 to profit $100 with a Figueiredo win, while a $100 bet on Perez would profit you $225 if he won.

After a controversial victory to win the title in February, Figueiredo left no question about the outcome in his rematch with Joseph Benavidez on Fight Island, scoring a first-round submission in dominant fashion for his fourth straight win.

Also looking to grab a fourth win in a row is Perez, who got into this title fight after Cody Garbrandt pulled out with an injury. That doesn’t mean Alex is not worthy of this championship fight – his only loss over his last 12 bouts came against Benavidez in 2018. 

According to our sports betting calculator, Figueiredo’s odds of -285 have an implied win probability of 69.23 percent, while Perez’s odds of +225 have an implied win probability of 33.33 percent. I have a UFC pick on this main event below.

A quick look at the co-main UFC 255 betting odds and we see that current champion Valentina Shevchenko is a massive -1800 favorite with challenger Jennifer Maia coming back at +850. 

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UFC 255 Odds

  • Flyweight Championship – Deiveson Figueiredo (-285) vs Alex Perez (+225)
  • Women’s Flyweight Championship – Valentina Shevchenko (-1800) vs Jennifer Maia (+850)
  • Welterweight – Mike Perry (-130) vs Tim Means (EVEN)
  • Women’s Flyweight – Katlyn Chookagian (+210) vs Cynthia Calvillo (-270)
  • Light Heavyweight – Mauricio Rua (+145) vs Paul Craig (-175)
  • Prelims
  • Flyweight – Brandon Moreno (-190) vs Brandon Royval (+155)
  • Middleweight – Joaquin Buckley (-260) vs Jordan Wright (+200)
  • Women’s Flyweight – Antonina Shevchenko (-160) vs Ariane Lipski (+130)
  • Welterweight – Daniel Rodriguez (-340) vs Nicolas Dalby (+260)
  • Welterweight – Alan Jouban (-155) vs Jared Gooden (+125)
  • Middleweight – Kyle Daukaus (-325) vs Dustin Stoltzfus (+250)
  • Welterweight – Louis Cosce (-500) vs Sasha Palatnikov (+350)

As you can see from the UFC 255 betting odds above, the biggest favorite on the cards is Shevchenko -1800 vs Maia +850. Meanwhile, the tightest UFC 255 betting line is in the welterweight division between Mike Perry at -130 vs Tim Means at +100.

New to betting on the fights? Check out our UFC betting guide to get you in the action. Also, keep an eye on our UFC odds page for the latest up-to-date UFC 255 betting odds.

Without further ado, here are my UFC best bets for UFC 255: Figueirdo vs Perez.

UFC 255: Figueiredo vs Perez Broadcast Information

  • Date/Time: November 21, 6:30 p.m. ET
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Arena: UFC Apex Performance Center
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+/PPV

Deiveson Figueiredo vs Alex Perez Odds

FighterOdds
Deiveson Figueiredo-285
Alex Perez+225

The flyweight division appeared to be on life-support when former champ Demetrious Johnson was traded to ONE FC for Ben Askren, then Henry Cejudo vacated the division to go up to bantamweight. However, Figueiredo (-285) brought eyes to the division with his power while up-and-comers like Perez (+225) pose real threats in an evolving division.


Figueiredo: Need to Knows
  • “Daico” has just one blemish on his record, losing a unanimous decision to Jussier Formiga in 2019, marking just the second time to that point that he’d gone the distance.
  • Sixteen of Figueiredo’s 19 pro wins have been finishes, nine by knockout and seven by submission. That record points to how well-rounded he is, having great knockout power and also being versed on the floor.
  • He is primarily a counter-striker, backing his opponents down in a karate-style stance, keeping his powerful right hand loaded low and ready to shut his opponents’ lights out. Figueiredo tends to stand a little flat-footed but that’s because of the counter-striker style and to level change for a takedown.
  • Forward pressure is the best approach to slow Figueiredo down. That said, doing so puts opponents in grave danger of eating that heavy right hand or being taken down.
  • Figueiredo’s last three fights were Tim Elliott (win – submission), Joseph Benavidez (win – knockout) and Joseph Benavidez (win – submission).


Perez: Need to Knows
  • Perez earned a UFC contract with a first-round submission win over Kevin Gray in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series in 2017 and now looks to be the first DWTNCS alum to become champion.
  • Unlike the champion, Perez has had many fights go the distance, with half of his 24 pro wins going to the judges’ scorecards, though four of his six wins in the Octagon have been finishes.
  • He has good kicks, which he used to beat Formiga his last time out at UFC 250 in June. Perez has an aggressive style, looking to get into a phone booth and exchange hands, which is a dangerous game to play vs Figueiredo. Being in that close range allows him to shoot for a takedown quickly, though.
  • Often, he will get in the pocket and cover up, absorbing a couple of shots before throwing back, attempting to clip his opponents as they back away.
  • Perez’s last three fights were Mark De La Rosa (win – unanimous decision), Jordan Espinosa (win – submission) and Jussier Formiga (win – knockout).

Prediction: Deiveson Figueiredo (-285) via knockout

Valentina Shevchenko vs Jennifer Maia Odds

FighterOdds
Valentina Shevchenko-1800
Jennifer Maia+850

Perhaps the most talented women’s mixed martial artist, Valentina “Bullet” Shevchenko (-1800) looks to make her fourth title defense and extend her five-fight winning streak. Aiming to steal the hype is Jennifer Maia (+850), who is coming off a first-round submission over Joanna Calderwood in August. As mentioned above, this is the largest UFC 255 betting line on the card. 


Shevchenko: Need to Knows
  • Shevchenko has just two losses over her 10-fight UFC career, both against Amanda Nunes. One was by unanimous decision and the other was a split that I scored in Shevchenko’s favor. Once the flyweight division opened up, she dropped down and has looked unstoppable.
  • Bullet had a 57-2 kickboxing record and a 2-0 boxing record before switching to MMA. She has a Master of Sports in taekwondo, Muay Thai, boxing, kickboxing and judo. Of her 19 pro wins, 13 have been finishes, six by knockout and seven by submission.
  • Shevchenko is an imposing figure in the Octagon, slowly inching forward toward her opponent and rarely taking a step backward while looking to explode with strikes or take the fight to the floor. She has outstanding top control where she uses superior ground and pound or looks for a submission.
  • On the feet, she has fantastic kicks and reads all of her opponents’ movements before going on the attack. Shevchenko has an amazing ability to read distance and know whether or not she’s in danger.
  • Shevchenko’s last three fights were Jessica Eye (win – knockout), Liz Carmouche (win – unanimous decision) and Katlyn Chookagian (win – knockout).


Maia: Need to Knows
  • Maia entered the UFC in July 2018 as the Invicta FC flyweight champion but faltered in her debut, losing by unanimous decision to Liz Carmouche. She got on track after that and has won three of her last four, losing only to Katlyn Chookagian over that span.
  • Of her 24 pro fights, 13 have gone to the judges’ scorecards, including eight of her last nine. Prior to her win over Calderwood, Maia had missed weight in her two previous fights so that is a concern coming into this bout.
  • Maia has good head movement and good kicks on the feet, although when she throws punches she loads up and leaves big openings to be countered. She does her best work in the clinch against the fence or on the floor where she can use her size to wear out her foes.
  • For her striking, a big issue is that she will close the distance without throwing a punch until she’s in range but will be at a reach disadvantage and throws sloppy overhand punches.
  • Maia’s last three fights were Roxanne Modafferi (win – unanimous decision), Katlyn Chookagian (loss – unanimous decision) and Joanne Calderwood (win – submission).

Prediction: Valentina Shevchenko (-1800) via knockout

This prediction is one of my two UFC best bets of the card.

Mike Perry vs Tim Means Odds

FighterOdds
Mike Perry-130
Tim MeansEVEN

Two men looking for consecutive wins for the first time in many years meet in the middle of the main card. Mike “Platinum” Perry (-130) hasn’t had two wins in a row since 2017, going 3-5 since then, while Tim “The Dirty Bird” Means (EVEN) hasn’t won back-to-back fights since 2016 and has gone 4-5 with a no contest over that span.


Perry: Need to Knows
  • Don’t look for a Perry fight to be a boring, drawn-out decision. He likes to get into wars and 13 of his 20 pro fights have been finished. Furthermore, 11 of his 14 pro wins have come by knockout.
  • Platinum lands 4.36 significant strikes per minute but absorbs 4.41, furthering the point that he likes to get into brawls. But he has only been knocked out once in his career.
  • Perry cuts off the cage effectively, not giving his opponents any room to breathe. When he backs his foes up, he starts to wing shots at them, varying from kicks to heavy hooks.
  • His pace will slow at times, though his forward pressure never goes away. A good straight jab is the best way to keep him at bay because he relies on hooks for his punches.
  • Perry’s last three fights were Vicente Luque (loss – split decision), Geoff Neal (loss – knockout) and Mickey Gall (win – unanimous decision).


Means: Need to Knows
  • Means had a strong start to his UFC career, winning six of eight fights, but has gone just 4-5 since then and hasn’t rattled off consecutive wins in four years. That said, The Dirty Bird also enjoys a gritty brawl when he’s in the cage.
  • He averages 4.92 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 3.53 and makes his opponents miss 61 percent of their strikes. Means also averages nearly one takedown per 15 minutes.
  • The Dirty Bird tends to struggle when his opponents throw combinations and pressure him backward. However, he always returns the combo with a strong straight punch on his foes’ way out of the pocket. He’s definitely lost some speed as he’s gotten older but his power remains.
  • Means’ last three fights were Thiago Alves (win – submission), Daniel Rodriguez (loss – submission) and Laureano Staropoli (win – unanimous decision).

Prediction: Tim Means (EVEN) via decision

This prediction is my second UFC best bet of the card.

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Katlyn Chookagian vs Cynthia Calvillo Odds

FighterOdds
Katlyn Chookagian+210
Cynthia Calvillo-270

It has been an active year for Katlyn “Blonde Fighter” Chookagian (+210) as she makes her fourth walk to the Octagon in 2020, but she is 1-2 in her previous three fights. Meanwhile, Cynthia Calvillo (-270) looks to build off a successful flyweight debut in June in which she beat former title challenger Jessica Eye.


Chookagian: Need to Knows
  • After back-to-back wins in 2019, Chookagian started 2020 with a title fight against Valentina Shevchenko but lost via third-round knockout. Most recently, she lost to Jessica Andrade in October via first-round knockout.
  • Blonde Fighter has good footwork and is a long fighter for the flyweight division. She does a good job throwing straight punches to keep her opponents at bay while circling away with solid footwork. She lacks true power, though, with just two knockout wins and 11 decision victories.
  • She has struggled stuffing takedowns, having been brought to the floor at least once in eight of her 11 UFC fights and stopping only 48 percent of takedown attempts.
  • Chookagian’s last three fights were Valentina Shevchenko (loss – knockout), Antonina Shevchenko (win – unanimous decision) and Jessica Andrade (loss – knockout).


Calvillo: Need to Knows
  • After struggling to make the 116-pound strawweight limit, Calvillo made the decision to move up to flyweight and scored a decisive unanimous-decision win over Jessica Eye in a five-round event in June.
  • She does a good job on the feet, punching to the body and following quickly with a punch to the head. Additionally, most of Calvillo’s punches are straight and her footwork allows her to cover distance quickly, helping her to overcome her reach disadvantage.
  • Enough about her striking, though. Calvillo’s bread and butter is her takedowns. She averages 1.97 per 15 minutes and has landed at least one in seven of her eight UFC bouts.
  • Calvillo’s last three fights were Cortney Casey (win – unanimous decision), Marina Rodriguez (draw) and Jessica Eye (win – unanimous decision).

Prediction: Cynthia Calvillo (-270) via decision

Shogun Rua vs Paul Craig Odds

FighterOdds
Shogun Rua+145
Paul Craig-175

A rematch from nearly a year ago to the day has Shogun Rua (-175) and Paul “Bearjew” Craig (+145) looking to determine a clear winner after their split draw. Rua is 2-0-1 in his last three fights and most recently scored a split-decision win over Antonio Rogerio Nogueira in July. Craig sports the same record in his last three and is coming off a first-round submission win in July.


Rua: Need to Knows
  • A veteran of the cage and a former champion, Shogun has been a difficult gatekeeper recently, sporting a record of 5-1-1 over his last seven with his lone defeat coming to Anthony Smith.
  • Shogun has been outstruck in five of those seven bouts but has relied on his grappling to secure the victory, managing at least one takedown in five of those fights. He has slowed in his older years but continues to push forward and never goes away.
  • He is rarely looking to avoid strikes now, using very little footwork or head movement, but still throws powerfully and is strong in the clinch or on the floor.
  • Rua’s last three fights were Tyson Pedro (win – knockout), Paul Craig (split draw) and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (win – split decision).


Craig: Need to Knows
  • Although Craig is known for his submission skills, with 12 of his 13 pro wins ending in that manner, his striking skills are continuing to improve, including outstriking Shogun in that last meeting.
  • Bearjew throws with reckless abandon, with spinning attacks and overhand strikes, while having little fear of being taken down because of his submission skills. His kicks are strong and accurate but when he’s having success on the feet, he still searches for a takedown because he feels more comfortable on the ground.
  • The biggest issue for Craig is accepting being on the bottom, which is not a good look for the judges. Even if he’s attacking off his back, he rarely pushes to get the fight standing again, even if he has done well in that aspect of the fight.
  • Craig’s last three fights were Vinicius Moreira Castro (win – submission), Shogun Rua (split draw) and Gadzhimurad Antigulov (win – submission).

Prediction: Paul Craig (-185) via decision

UFC 255 Odds & UFC Best Bets

FighterOdds
Flyweight – Deiveson Figueiredo-285
Women’s Flyweight – Valentina Shevchenko-1800
Welterweight – Tim MeansEVEN
Women’s Flyweight – Cynthia Calvillo-270
Light Heavyweight – Paul Craig-175