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UFC 270 Odds & Predictions: Two Title Fights Highlight The Card

Ciryl Gane (right) is favored in the UFC 270 odds.

The first UFC PPV of 2022 is quickly approaching and it’s a big one. And by a big one, I mean the heavyweight title will be up for grabs in the main event between champion Francis Ngannou and interim champion Ciryl Gane. Setting the table for the big boys will be the trilogy flyweight title fight between Brandon Moreno and Deiveson Figueiredo.

UFC 270 takes place on January 22 at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California, and can be seen on PPV. For the heavyweight championship main event, the challenger and interim champ, Gane, is the betting favorite.

Be sure to check out online sportsbook Bovada for the best UFC 270 odds.

UFC 270: Ngannou vs Gane Notes

Ngannou made good in his second attempt at winning UFC gold. He lost the first time by decision to Stipe Miocic but avenged that loss with a second-round knockout win last March. Inactive since then, he is laying his belt and a five-fight winning streak on the line.

Speaking of lengthy winning streaks, the challenger hasn’t tasted defeat in his brief 10-fight career. He broke out in a big way in 2021, scoring three wins, including a knockout victory over Derrick Lewis at UFC 265 to win the interim championship.

UFC 270 Odds

Online sportsbook Bovada has listed the UFC 270 odds and in the main event, Ciryl Gane is the -155 chalk with Francis Ngannou set as the +125 underdog. This means to make $100 with a winning Gane bet, you must lay $155, whereas a $100 bet on Ngannou would net you another $125.

We can look at the UFC 270 odds more closely with our sports betting calculator. There you will see that Gane’s odds translate to an implied win probability of 60.78 percent and Ngannou’s betting line represents an implied win probability of 44.44 percent.

You can see a list of all of our reviewed sportsbooks here:

See Odds Shark’s Best Betting Sites

If you’re looking to take a risk on the biggest underdog of the card, you will be playing Charles Jourdain (+390) in his featherweight bout with Ilia Topuria (-575). If you’d like to try your hand with the tightest odds, you’d be looking at the welterweight prelim bout between Michael Morales (-125) and Trevin Giles (+105).

UFC 270 Betting Odds & Fight Card


UFC 270 Betting Lines And Fight Card
  • Main Card
  • Heavyweight Championship – Francis Ngannou (+125) vs Ciryl Gane (-155)
  • Flyweight Championship – Brandon Moreno (-175) vs Deiveson Figueiredo (+150)
  • Welterweight – Michel Pereira (-285) vs Andre Fialho (+225)
  • Bantamweight – Cody Stamann (+160) vs Said Nurmagomedov (-200)
  • Middleweight – Rodolfo Vieira (-220) vs Wellington Turman (+175)
  • Prelims
  • Bantamweight – Raoni Barcelos (-525) vs Victor Henry (+370)
  • Featherweight – Charles Jourdain (+390) vs Ilia Topuria (-575)
  • Welterweight – Jack Della Maddalena (-335) vs Pete Rodriguez (+255)
  • Bantamweight – Tony Gravely (-250) vs Saimon Oliveira (+200)
  • Welterweight – Michael Morales (-125) vs Trevin Giles (+105)
  • Lightweight – Matt Frevola (-190) vs Genaro Valdez (+155)
  • Women’s Flyweight – Kay Hansen (-240) vs Jasmin Jasudavicius (+190)
  • Women’s Strawweight – Vanessa Demopoulos (-140) vs Silvana Gomez Juarez (+115)

Want to get in on the action of the first PPV of 2022? See our How to Bet UFC guide to learn about betting on UFC 270. Also, our sportsbook review page can assist you in choosing where to bet on UFC 270. You can maximize the value of your bets by checking out our UFC odds page. Ultimately, you can find plenty of UFC betting news here at Odds Shark.


UFC 270: Ngannou vs Gane Broadcast Information
  • Date/Time: January 22, 6 p.m. ET
  • Location: Anaheim, California
  • Arena: Honda Center
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+, PPV

Francis Ngannou vs Ciryl Gane Odds & Prediction

Francis Ngannou vs Ciryl Gane Betting Odds
FighterOdds
Francis Ngannou +125
Ciryl Gane-155

As mentioned off the top, not only is Ciryl “Bon Gamin” Gane (-155) looking to unify the heavyweight titles but he’s also striving to remain undefeated. Meanwhile, Francis “The Predator” Ngannou (+125) had back-to-back losses in 2018 but has been flawless since then with five straight wins.


Ngannou: Need to Knows
  • Not only has Ngannou won five in a row, but only one of those fights went into the second round and that didn’t reach the second minute. The champ is 16-3 with 12 knockout wins and four submissions. Each of his losses has come by decision.
  • Evident in his record, the Predator is a wrecking ball with all of his wins being stoppages and 11 of them coming in the first round. There’s absolutely no denying the power the champion possesses.
  • There were aspects of Ngannou’s game that left him vulnerable: his conditioning, getting him out of the first round, his wild approach without proper setups and his wrestling. The night he won the title, he was composed, patient and showed great takedown defense on the one shot that he faced.
  • I believe those aspects will remain a question mark, perhaps for his entire career. However, if he can be patient and look for his opportunity, he only needs to land one shot to end the night.
  • Ngannou’s last three fights were Junior dos Santos (win – knockout), Jairzinho Rozenstruik (win – knockout) and Stipe Miocic (win – knockout).


Gane: Need to Knows
  • Not only is Gane undefeated at 10-0 but he has balanced methods of victory. The interim champ has four wins by knockout, three by submission and three by decision.
  • While Bon Gamin tips the scale near the 250-pound mark, his movements, athleticism and conditioning resemble something of a middleweight. His speed and perpetual motion have led to him landing 5.37 significant strikes per minute and absorbing only 2.40.
  • In fact, if you look through Gane’s stats in the UFC, you can barely find areas of weakness. He has never been taken down and has outstruck all seven of his opponents in the Octagon. Gane’s first two wins in the UFC were submissions (an arm triangle and a heel hook) so he’s no slouch on the floor.
  • What may be an ace up the sleeve for Bon Gamin is the fact Francis used to be his training partner, so surely he understands the power Ngannou possesses. If Gane can pick his shots, drag the fight out and get Ngannou to have big misses, I think he cruises to victory.
  • Gane’s last three fights were Jairzinho Rozenstruik (win – unanimous decision), Alexander Volkov (win – unanimous decision) and Derrick Lewis (win – knockout).

For more on this fight, see my Ngannou vs Gane odds analysis piece.

Prediction: Ciryl Gane (-155) via knockout

Brandon Moreno vs Deiveson Figueiredo 3 Odds & Prediction

Brandon Moreno vs Deiveson Figueiredo Betting Odds
FighterOdds
Brandon Moreno-175
Deiveson Figueiredo+145

The flyweight championship will feature the same two men for the third time in a row. Brandon “The Assassin Baby” Moreno (-175) proved the first bout that went to a draw was not a fluke as he earned a third-round submission in the rematch. Former champ Deiveson “Deus da Guerra” Figueiredo (+145) had been on a five-fight winning streak, including one title defense, before running into Moreno.


Moreno: Need to Knows
  • It was not an easy path to the title for Moreno, who was cut from the UFC in 2018 but was re-signed just over a year later and hasn’t lost since. He holds a 19-5-2 record with 14 stoppages (three knockouts, 11 submissions) while never being stopped in his losses.
  • For the most part as he was coming up, the Assassin Baby looked to get the fight to the floor and work toward a submission. What has been more impressive in his fight against Brandon Royval to become the challenger and in the two title fights have been his striking.
  • We have seen on social media that he’s been training with fellow Mexican and boxing great Canelo Alvarez, which could be an indication why his striking has improved. In the rematch, it wasn’t necessarily the type of strikes Moreno was using but rather the overwhelming volume.
  • Moreno’s last three fights were Brandon Royval (win – knockout), Deiveson Figueiredo (majority draw) and Deiveson Figueiredo (win – submission).


Figueiredo: Need to Knows
  • This is the first time in Figueiredo’s career that he is winless in his last two trips to the cage. His record now stands at 20-2-1 with 17 finishes (nine knockouts, eight submissions) while his submission loss in the rematch was his first stoppage defeat.
  • I mentioned Moreno’s overwhelming volume in the rematch; it also seemed as though Deus da Guerra was stuck in first gear, very tense and coiled up looking for one single strike to end the night – a strike that never came.
  • The former champ was never a high-output type of fighter, surpassing 100 significant strikes in a fight just once, in his first bout with Moreno. Typically, Figueiredo would stalk his opponents, forcing them to engage with him either in striking or on the mat, and his power and size would often win those battles.
  • If Figueiredo can come out moving forward and being aggressive, he could reclaim his title. I wonder, though, if the weight cut and his age (34) will allow him to keep up with the younger champ.
  • Figueiredo’s last three fights were Alex Perez (win – submission), Brandon Moreno (majority draw) and Brandon Moreno (loss – submission).

For more on this fight, see my Moreno vs Figueiredo 3 odds analysis article.

Prediction: Brandon Moreno (-175) via knockout

Michel Pereira vs Andre Fialho Odds & Prediction

Michel Pereira vs Andre Fialho Betting Odds
FighterOdds
Michel Pereira-285
Andre Fialho+225

Getting the call on late notice to make his UFC debut is Andre Fialho (+225). He gets his first shot in the Octagon against Michel “Demolidor” Pereira (-285), who finds himself on a three-fight winning streak.


Pereira: Need to Knows
  • It appears Pereira is coming into his own in the UFC with three straight wins in under 12 months. At just 28 years old, he has a wealth of experience with a 26-11 record and two no contests. Among his wins, he has 17 stoppages (10 knockouts, seven submissions) while eight of his losses have been decisions.
  • Demolidor received a lot of criticism when he lost to Tristan Connelly (a featherweight who took the fight on late notice) as he was showboating doing flips and ended up gassing out and losing a bad decision. Since then, he’s been more controlled and has looked really good.
  • He mixes his attacks well with 2.01 takedowns per 15 minutes. When striking, he moves around well, switching stances and then exploding with powerful kicks or his snappy jab.
  • Pereira’s last three fights were Zelim Imadaev (win – submission), Khaos Williams (win – unanimous decision) and Niko Price (win – unanimous decision).


Fialho: Need to Knows
  • Fialho must be feeling confident making his UFC debut as he’s coming off a 4-0 run in 2021 with four knockouts, including a win over former UFC fighter James Vick. He has a 14-3 record with one no contest, with 11 wins by knockout and two losses coming in the same manner. 
  • While he’s been fighting in UAE Warriors in Abu Dhabi, he trains out of Sanford MMA in the United States, which allowed him to take this fight on about two weeks’ notice.
  • Fialho hits hard and is very aggressive with his forward pressure but is patient in choosing when to let his hands fly. I’d like to see him use more jabs to set up his shots but the power is undeniable and he can shut someone’s lights out in very short distances like the clinch. 
  • Fialho’s last three fights were Sang Hoon Yoo (win – knockout), Lincoln Henrique (win – knockout) and Stefan Sekulic (win – knockout).

Prediction: Michel Pereira (-285) via decision

Cody Stamann vs Said Nurmagomedov Odds & Prediction

Cody Stamann vs Said Nurmagomedov Betting Odds
FighterOdds
Cody Stamann+160
Said Nurmagomedov-200

Two bantamweights on the outside of the top 15 are looking for a statement win here to jump into the rankings. Cody “The Spartan” Stamann (+160) has dropped his last two trips to the Octagon. Meanwhile, Said Nurmagomedov (-200) tasted his first loss in the UFC in December 2019 but made short work of his followup opponent in October 2020.


Stamann: Need to Knows
  • Stamann had been on a tear, winning 10 in a row, including three in the UFC, before losing to now-champion Aljamain Sterling in 2018. He has an impressive record of 19-4-1 with eight stoppage victories (six knockouts, two submissions). He’s also been stopped just once, by submission.
  • The Spartan is a well-rounded fighter with a little more emphasis on his grappling, averaging 2.80 takedowns per 15 minutes. He is a smaller guy at five-foot-six with a 64-inch reach – he will be at a six-inch reach disadvantage in this fight.
  • While he’s a good grappler, he doesn’t force it – he’s willing to stand and trade and look for his opportunity. At times, Stamann can be really hesitant, working behind his jab but only committing with big hooks without the jab.
  • Stamann’s last three fights were Brian Kelleher (win – unanimous decision), Jimmie Rivera (loss – unanimous decision) and Merab Dvalishvili (loss – unanimous decision).


Nurmagomedov: Need to Knows
  • Nurmagomedov had been on a seven-fight winning streak before his loss to Raoni Barcelos in December 2019. He now stands at 14-2 with seven finishes – four by knockout, three by submission – and both losses have come by decision.
  • Despite the name, Nurmagomedov is not related to former lightweight king Khabib Nurmagomedov. Said is not much of a grappler, securing just one takedown over his four UFC bouts for a seven percent accuracy rate.
  • He is very confident and relaxed on the feet with a lot of speed, power and creativity. Nurmagomedov has really good kicks and often uses spinning attacks that are very fast and powerful.
  • Nurmagomedov’s last three fights were Ricardo Ramos (win – knockout), Raoni Barcelos (loss – unanimous decision) and Mark Striegl (win – knockout).

Prediction: Said Nurmagomedov (-200) via decision

Rodolfo Vieira vs Wellington Turman Odds & Prediction

Rodolfo Vieira vs Wellington Turman Betting Odds
FighterOdds
Rodolfo Vieira-220
Wellington Turman+175

After taking his first professional loss in early 2021, Rodolfo “The Black Belt Hunter” Vieira (-220) returned to the win column in his next appearance and looks to get back on a winning streak. Similarly, Wellington “The Prodigy” Turman (+175) broke out of a two-fight losing skid in his last trip to the Octagon with a split-decision win over Sam Alvey.


Vieira: Need to Knows
  • That first defeat was one of the most surprising outcomes in 2021 as the high-level BJJ player was submitted by Anthony Hernandez, who had +3000 odds. Vieira is now 8-1 with seven submission wins and one submission loss.
  • Vieira is most vulnerable in the standup, having been outstruck by three of his four UFC opponents, averaging 2.60 significant strikes per minute and absorbing 4.04. His hands looked better offensively in his last fight but defensively there are issues. 
  • That said, he averages 5.77 takedowns per 15 minutes and is aggressive on the floor in searching for a submission with his elite jiu-jitsu skills. In the Black Belt Hunter’s loss to Hernandez, he gassed out, but he was fresh in his last outing.
  • Vieira’s last three fights were Saparbek Safarov (win – submission), Anthony Hernandez (loss – submission) and Dustin Stoltzfus (win – submission).


Turman: Need to Knows
  • Turman has had a rough go in the UFC thus far, sporting a 2-3 record in the Octagon. That brings the 25-year-old’s overall record to 17-5 with 11 stoppage victories (four knockouts, seven submissions) while he’s been knocked out twice as well.
  • The Prodigy’s two knockout losses came in back-to-back fights, both in the first round in the UFC. He scored multiple takedowns in his other three fights, which went the distance. 
  • He moves well on his feet and uses good kicks to keep distance but will lunge in with a big punch looking to land heavy or close distance to get into a grappling exchange. Turman holds a 100 percent takedown defense and if he can determine where this fight plays out, he has a shot at winning.
  • Turman’s last three fights were Andrew Sanchez (loss – knockout), Bruno Silva (loss – knockout) and Sam Alvey (win – split decision).

Prediction: Wellington Turman (+175) via decision

UFC 270 Best Bets

UFC 270 Betting Odds
FighterOdds
Heavyweight Championship – Ciryl Gane-155
Flyweight Championship – Brandon Moreno-175
Welterweight – Michel Pereira -285
Bantamweight – Said Nurmagomedov-200
Middleweight – Wellington Turman+175