Tatiana Suarez is a massive favorite in her return at UFC Vegas 70.

Weili vs Suarez Odds & Picks: 'And New' At UFC 312?

Zhang Weili is back in action at UFC 312, this time defending her strawweight belt against long-awaited challenger Tatiana Suarez. After Weili opened as a favored, the odds are now much closer.

We've got pick'em odds between Weili (-110) and Suarez (-110) heading into this fight. Weili put on an excellent performance at UFC 300 and will now meet Suarez, who has secured two submission wins since returning from a four-year injury layoff. Still, the injury battle continues for Suarez, who last fought in 2023.

This fight goes down Feb. 8 in Sydney, Australia.

Zhang Weili vs Tatiana Suarez Betting Odds

Weili vs Suarez Odds
FighterOdds
Weili Zhang-110
Tatiana Suarez-110

Odds as of Feb. 7

Our odds calculator determines both fighters receive a 52.38% chance of victory, with a winning bet paying out $190.91.

It's worth noting these odds have been on quite a journey. Weili opened closer to -200 and the public has since hammered Suarez, moving her within a hair of chalk status.

How to Bet Suarez

A world championship wrestler and newly awarded Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, Suarez will want this fight on the mat. She has returned to the UFC with incredible force, using her massive frame and strength to secure two guillotine stoppages. Weili is strong, too, but she'll be at a three-inch reach disadvantage vs Suarez. 

This fight will be about Suarez managing her distance. She can kick with force and strike a bit but probably loses a stand-up fight to Weili. She needs to claim a dominant position or get the champ going backward. 

While a submission bet is enticing, I'd prefer to back Suarez as the SU underdog, should those odds come back to roost. Weili's last two fights have gone the full 25 minutes, and the China native has only been stopped once in her career (Rose Namajunas headkick).

How To Bet Weili

Suarez has never lost, but she's also never competed for a full five rounds, and that's an element I'm counting on as I pick Weili to win this fight. It's hard to train your cardio when you're unhealthy, and Suarez will be off 18 months before UFC 312. Not good.

Suarez will definitely pin Weili on the ground. The champion's grappling is much better these days, and she has used it as a blanket strategy to defeat strikers like Amanda Lemos and Yan Xiaonan. She won't outdo Suarez, but she will survive a few scrambles. Watch for Weili to succumb to early grappling exchanges when both fighters are dry. After that, she'll rally.

As the fight goes on, the odds swing heavily in Weili's favor. Her cardio is incredible, and she's a stocky strawweight, meaning Suarez can't just ragdoll her the whole time. As I look into the crystal ball, I'm fuzzy on the finer details (maybe a Weili knockdown and a nearly successful sub by Suarez) but I believe Weili wins this fight, potentially by decision.

Now that the odds have changed, though, I can comfortable lay Weili ML.

Zhang Weili vs Tatiana Suarez Pick

The stylistic differences make Suarez one of Weili's toughest tests ever. But it's hard to teach championship mettle, and I'll count on the champ defending her belt and continuing her case for the UFC Hall of Fame.

Side note: if you can get Weili as an underdog (as I found her earlier this week at FanDuel), go off. I put down three units).

Pick: Zhang Weili to Win (-110)

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