Rafael Fiziev is a -150 favorite vs Justin Gaethje (+125 underdog) in the co-main event of UFC 313 on March 8 in Las Vegas. Fiziev stepped up as a short-notice replacement after Dan Hooker pulled out of the fight due to a hand injury.
The Gaethje vs Fiziev odds have me confused. Gaethje, ranked third at lightweight, is considered the better fighter, but he's fresh off a flatline KO at the hands of Max Holloway at UFC 300 last April. Still, he boasts a solid decision win over Fiziev at UFC 286 in 2023, plus Fiziev hasn't fought since tearing his ACL nearly two years ago.
This rematch will be interesting.
Gaethje vs Fiziev Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje | +125 |
| Rafael Fiziev | -150 |
Odds as of March 7
How To Bet Gaethje
"The Highlight" took a big blow at UFC 300. He grinded for five full rounds then got absolutely blistered by Holloway. Out cold. Gaethje has recovered from KO losses before, but this could be a greater obstacle for the now 36-year-old. Gaethje's age and recent loss must be the only two factors pushing him to underdog status. I'm struggling to understand why Gaethje, who is more experienced and boasts a win over Fiziev, opened as an underdog.
So what did we learn from that first fight? Well, Gaethje had a power advantage, and the younger Fiziev had a speed advantage. In the end, Gaethje's heavy strikes won out. Off the hop, he battered Fiziev's legs with his patented calf kicks and found success with big hooks and high kicks.
Gaethje's constant offense and unorthodox movements were a pleasant surprise in that fight at UFC 286. As everyone expected, he loaded up, but he also used a good mix of hop-steps, feints, and takedown attempts to confuse Fiziev. He just showed more tools, packing his usual punch along the way.
Another X-factor: Fiziev is returning from a torn ACL suffered in September 2023. He ramped up training in September 2024, but it's always interesting to see how fighters move after suffering a devastating lower-body injury. Gaethje's epic calf kicks could be very effective.
For these reasons, I love Gaethje as an even-money underdog. The line for UNDER 2.5 rounds was -165 at UFC 286, and while Fiziev wore serious damage, there were no knockdowns in the first bout. With that in mind, I have a hard time playing round totals for the rematch, especially in a three-rounder.
How to Bet Fiziev
On the flip side to my Gaethje analysis, you should be Fiziev by KO if you're a believer. Gaethje has never lost by decision (all five losses via stoppage), and we witnessed how a three-round slugfest played out for "Ataman" last go around.
At UFC 286, Fiziev impressed me with his speed and ferocity; unfortunately, he came up empty too often on his strikes. The kick to the body gave Gaethje's midsection a nice sunburn, so count on Fiziev to use that attack in the rematch. If you're betting Fiziev, clearly you like the speed factor vs an aging version of Gaethje, and you're counting on him getting clipped. I respect that stance because I don't see a situation where Fiziev outmuscles or outmaneuvers Gaethje over three rounds. He must act fast and get the job done in violent fashion.
For all my Fiziev bettors out there, have some fun with this one. You can take him as a slight favorite, but I'd consider a KO prop for more value or a bet on him inside the distance.
Gaethje vs Fiziev Betting Pick: UFC 313
I'm not interested in playing the rounds game for this fight, as I'm legitimately uncertain if this goes the distance (-130) or not.
I’m taking Gaethje to win at UFC 313, trusting his superior power, volume, and recent strength of schedule to outplay Fiziev in a three-round bout. For me, this operates first as an odds play. After that, I'm leaning on Gaethje's experience, fight IQ, and conditioning to wear down Fiziev, who's on short notice.
Gaethje trained weeks for a five-round firefight. He'll be very prepared for Fiziev on March 8.
