Justin Gaethje is a -150 favorite vs Dan Hooker (+130 underdog) in the co-main event of UFC 313 on March 8 in Las Vegas. The fight will be five rounds.
The Gaethje vs Hooker odds seem fair. Gaethje, ranked third at lightweight, is considered the better fighter, but he's fresh off a flatline KO at the hands of Max Holloway at UFC 300 last April. Meanwhile, sixth-ranked Hooker is on a three-fight win streak after two upsets vs Jalin Turner and Mateusz Gamrot.
Gaethje vs Hooker Odds
Fighter | Odds |
---|---|
Justin Gaethje | -150 |
Dan Hooker | +130 |
Odds as of Feb. 13
UFC fans are very excited for this fight. Hooker and Gaethje both have a history of thrilling, all-or-nothing battles and seem more focused on delivering epic fights for the fans than chasing a title shot at this stage of their careers. While that could make betting on this fight less predictable, Gaethje's -150 odds at UFC 313 offer a good starting point for handicapping this fight.
How To Bet Gaethje
"The Highlight" took a big blow at UFC 300. He grinded for five full rounds then got absolutely blistered by Holloway. Out cold. Gaethje has recovered from KO losses before, but this one could prove to be a greater obstacle for the now 36-year-old. Hooker's resurgence is a factor here, too, but the UFC 300 loss is a big reason why Gaethje is only the -150 favorite.
Let's pretend both fighters are calm and confident during this co-main event. I think we see this fight go OVER 2.5 rounds, with Gaethje's cinder-block punches making the difference. After UFC 286, Rafael Fiziev spoke about how heavy Gaethje's punches were. The American won that by decision, laying a brutal beating on Fiziev in the process.
My best bet is on Gaethje ML -150. He has incredible power, but he is also prone to big punches (7.46 sig. strikes absorbed per minute). Hooker leaves himself exposed, too, so Gaethje will have space to retaliate. Volume is Gaethje's best friend. He lands 6.78 sig. strikes per minute, compared to Hooker's 5.03. I'm not confident enough to predict a KO on Gaethje's side.
How to Bet Hooker
Hooker cashed at +240 vs Turner and +210 vs Gamrot, though not without difficulty. "The Hangman" got battered in both fights, relying on his rallying ability to recover and deal damage. Much like Gaethje's Ws, Hooker's wins are never pretty.
The Turner win was more impressive, as "The Tarantula" represented a far greater KO threat than a wrestler like Gamrot. Gaethje now brings a strong wrestling base and heavy hands, where he'll fight in tight. Hooker needs to make this a strike-counterstrike fight to win. He owns a five-inch reach advantage vs Gaethje and can punch and kick his way to victory. Keep Gaethje on the move, light him up, and stay out of range.
For bets, I'd stick with Hooker ML at +130. He can certainly win by knockout, but if he follows the strategy I outlined above, a decision win is also possible.
Gaethje vs Hooker Betting Pick: UFC 313
I’m taking Gaethje at -150 to win at UFC 313, trusting his superior power, volume, and recent strength of schedule to outlast Hooker in a fight that could deliver fireworks. While Hooker’s reach and resilience make him a live underdog, Gaethje’s ability to do more with striking openings makes him the safer pick.