Alexander Volkanovski will return at UFC 314 on April 12 in Miami, and his former belt is on the line. Volkanovski is a -142 favorite at FanDuel vs Diego Lopes (+112 underdog) for the newly vacant UFC featherweight title.
The 145-pound title is up for grabs after champ Ilia Topuria vacated his belt with a vow to compete at lightweight going forward. Now the two best remaining featherweights, Volk and Lopes, will slug it out for Topuria's old belt.
Volkanovski vs Lopes Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | -142 |
| Diego Lopes | +112 |
Odds as of Feb. 20 at FanDuel
Using our odds calculator, we can determine Volk's -142 odds suggest a 58.68% chance of winning, and a $100 bet pays out $170.42. Lopes' +112 underdog status gives him a 47.17% chance of winning, with a $100 bet paying out $212.
Why Is The Featherweight Title back up For Grabs?
UFC boss Dana White dropped some big fight news on the evening of February 19. Most notably, White announced Topuria will vacate his 145-pound title and move up to lightweight. Topuria has long teased such a move as he eyes a superfight with lightweight champ Islam Makhachev.
Per White, Topuria no longer believes he can cut the weight required to fight at 145 pounds. Topuria previously competed at 155 pounds in the UFC.
And with that, our Volkanovski vs Lopes title fight at UFC 314 was born. The Volk vs Lopes odds are interesting, too.
How To Bet Volkanovski
Volkanovski stans have been through the ringer over the past two years. The Australian suffered a devastating KO loss to Islam at UFC 294 in October 2023 in a lightweight title fight. Ever the competitor, he returned in February 2024, only to lose by knockout at the hands of Topuria.
Now Volk draws another action man in Lopes, who prides himself on intense, Mexican-style boxing and non-stop offense. Lopes' last two fights have gone the distance, but he came dangerously close to knocking out Brian Ortega early at UFC 306. Lopes has incredible punching power and empties the tank early, much like Topuria. The longer this fight goes, the better it is for Volk.
If you're betting Volkanovski, I'd consider a wager on him to win either by decision or a parlay with his -142 ML and the OVER 2.5 rounds, for example (even OVER 1.5 to avoid being greedy). The 36-year-old fought very well in the first round vs Topuria at UFC 298, but when the Spaniard turned up the heat, Volk crumpled.
Lopes has that same explosiveness. Volkanovski must use his wrestling and he must play the distance game. He's excellent when he can jab, switch stances, and dance in and out, all while wearing his opponent down. Volk is much shorter than Lopes but will only be at a one-inch reach disadvantage, which bodes well.
As I said, Volk ML + the OVER 1.5 looks like the move here. A disclaimer, though: Volk is in range of the UFC's 35 and over curse. UFC fighters 35 years or older at welterweight and lighter are 3-32 in title fights. Tyron Woodley and Belal Muhammad are the only fighters to record a win at that age in those classes.
How To Bet Lopes
I'm a Lopes believer in this fight. He's crisp, aggressive, and versatile. While Lopes doesn't have Topuria's power or combo-punching ability, he is younger and quicker than Volkanovski.
Lopes beat the utter crap out of Ortega at UFC 303, though "T-City" rallied in the final round to at least make the fight somewhat competitive. The longer the fight goes, the better Volk's chances become. So, I expect Lopes to come out with a tight guard and intense forward pressure.
Lopes is an easy underdog bet. I'll make that play with my eyes closed. Beyond that, I also like him to win inside the distance, or I might play a parlay with Lopes ML + the UNDER 1.5 rounds.
Volkanovski vs Lopes Betting Pick
It's not just the curse that has me worried for Volk. Lopes is as complete a younger fighter as they make 'em, plus the Aussie's chin has not held up against destroyers like Islam, Topuria, and now Lopes.
