Two of the most well rounded lightweights clash for the divisions’ crown when Rafael dos Anjos and Donald Cerrone step into the Octagon on Saturday. The line favors dos Anjos, but there’s more value to be had on some of the exotic props for the fight.
Here are some intriguing props for UFC on Fox 17 that could be worth a look in the lightweight title fight.
Cerrone wins by Five Round Decision
Only two of Cerrone’s 35 fights have ever gone into a fifth round, both of those being losses coming in WEC, but Cowboy is a fighter that excels as fights go on. It can take some time for Cerrone to find his range in fights, but once he does he tends to dominate the match.
Cerrone looked flat for the first two rounds when these fighters clashed in their first fight, but he started to find his range and get comfortable in the third. Both men have iron chins so seeing this fight go to a decision is not out of the realm of possibility.
dos Anjos has the better record when the judges decide (12-5 compared to Cerrone’s 8-4), but given Cowboy’s penchant for being a slow starter and strong finisher, a five round decision is not impossible. Cerrone winning by a fifth round decision is currently +465 at [custom:5dimes-links].
Dos Anjos wins inside distance
Fifty percent of dos Anjos’ career wins have come by decision, but that is not to say he is unable to finish a fight. The BJJ black belt has always had a dangerous submission game and sneaky powerful hands.
Cerrone’s toughness and ability to avoid getting finished is what makes this prop’s +257 as steep as it is. Only two of Cerrone’s six career losses have been by stoppage with the last one a KO loss to Anthony Pettis at the start of 2013.
If Cerrone has any hole to exploit for a finish it’s his boxing and striking defense. Cerrone has proven to have some difficulty protecting his head, something that has been hidden by his technique and toughness, but short compact strikes is something dos Anjos was able to use to success in their first fight.
Cerrone wins in round one
Is this prop unlikely to pay off? Yeah. But a juicy +925 line may make it worth the flyer. Cerrone has had 18 fights in the UFC with only five ending in a first round victory for Cowboy. Pair that with the fact that dos Anjos has never been finished in the first round and this seems like a longshot.
However, there is no doubt that Cerrone has the power, especially in his head kicks, to knock out anyone at anytime. We saw what McGregor did to Aldo in 13 seconds, so nothing is impossible.
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Odds Shark Staff Fri, May 20, 11:42am