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UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs Volkov Betting Odds and Predictions

Fabricio Werdum of Brazil punches Marcin Tybura of Poland in their UFC heavyweight bout.

The UFC returns to London for the first time in a year when the Octagon takes up residence in the O2 Arena on March 17. The main event is a huge heavyweight bout between former champion Fabricio Werdum and Alexander Volkov, who has been quietly climbing the ranks.

The card is filled with the typical European talent you expect from a card on that side of the Atlantic Ocean. That means there could be plenty of names that casual fans have not heard of. Don’t worry, I’m here to bring you the breakdown and predictions for UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs Volkov.

2018 Prediction Record To Date
Straight UpMethod Of Victory PropsPicking FavoritesPicking Underdogs

Fabricio Werdum vs Alexander Volkov

Fabricio Werdum (-190) is one of the best BJJ practitioners in heavyweight history. His skills in the guard are near the apex of the sport today and he can easily glide between positions. Though his wrestling skills are not elite, Werdum has put work into integrating takedown attempts more smoothly into his striking offense. His striking style is based on aggression and his jab. Werdum will constantly pump the jab while walking them down. That being said, he can be dragged into slugfests, which is the type of fight Werdum should be avoiding.

Alexander Volkov (+155) has a solid array of front kicks and straight punches, and distance striking is his bread and butter. Volkov throws with a decent amount of volume but it’s his striking accuracy that makes him a handful to deal with. He does a good job of utilizing his height in the clinch game as well, mixing strikes to keep his opponent guessing. Volkov has made plenty of strides in his defensive wrestling over the past few years. However, once he does get taken down, the Russian doesn’t offer much.

Werdum is likely the better fighter – on the mat, he definitely is – but Volkov’s length and ability to move could cause the former champion to get impatient, leaving him vulnerable to Drago’s heavy hands. However, it’s just too hard to pick against Werdum unless he is fighting the elite of the division.

Prediction: Fabricio Werdum (-190) via submission (+190)

Jimi Manuwa vs Jan Blachowicz

Jimi Manuwa (-225) is a lethal striker who combines his natural power with wonderful technical prowess. “Poster Boy” has ended 15 of his 17 professional victories via knockout – 10 of them in the first round. One of the aspects of Manuwa’s game that goes overlooked due to his power is his fight IQ. Manuwa knows when to flurry, he knows when to lay off and he knows when to go to the body instead of headhunting. Manuwa is largely competent in other fields but is there to strike.

Jan Blachowicz (+175) is a striker by trade who possesses some great technical acumen and combinations. The Pole has a specific fondness for throwing a brutal kick to the midsection to drain his opponent. His offensive grappling is above average with a good clinch game and underrated submission skills. However, his striking and takedown defense are not great.

If Blachowicz is smart, he will look to grapple and get some top control. His underrated submission skills can shine there. However, it is more likely that Blachowicz decides to strike and gets his head taken off by the powerful punches of Manuwa.

Prediction: Jimi Manuwa (-225) by knockout (+130)

Tom Duquesnoy vs Terrion Ware

Tom Duquesnoy (-300) is one of the brightest prospects in MMA. The “Fire Kid” is at his best when he can move forward in the striking game – stringing together slick combinations – to initiate the clinch game. Once in the clinch, he has underappreciated knees and elbows that we haven’t seen much in his UFC tenure. His big hole is his takedown defense, as Duquesnoy’s aggressive style leaves him often susceptible to being brought down.

Terrion Ware (+230) is almost exclusively a striker with his skill set based on a strong boxing game. It’s not the flashiest and Ware doesn’t own the heaviest of hands but he can outwork and outpoint opponents. However, his defense is just not good. He gets hit a lot on the feet – which, to be fair, may be due to the killer prospects he has fought – and offers almost no takedown defense.

Ware has become the jobber to future stars. In his three fights in the promotion, Ware has fought Cody Stamann, Sean O’Malley and now Tom Duquesnoy. Ware will provide a capable opponent for Duquesnoy but the Fire Kid should be more than up to the challenge.

Prediction: Tom Duquesnoy (-300) via decision*

Leon Edwards vs Peter Sobotta

Leon Edwards (-210) has quietly developed into one of the more well-rounded fighters in the welterweight division. The Jamaican-born fighter has a wide range of striking techniques but typically sticks to using his jab to disrupt his opponent. Edwards could have higher output but his striking is effective. Ever since his loss to Kamaru Usman, Edwards has worked on his grappling. “Rocky” is now a suffocating fighter in the clinch with some clever takedowns.

Peter Sobotta (+170) has long been thought of as a submission ace – and the Brazilian black belt has some very good grappling abilities – but his improvement on the feet has been what has set him apart during his second run in the UFC. Sobotta has developed a smooth striking attack that has allowed him to utilize his natural power. Of course, landing a takedown, getting top control and searching for a neck is still his premier path to victory.

This bout is closer than the odds suggest. I can’t help but be swayed by Sobotta’s experience and ability to end fights at any level. I don’t think Sobotta finishes Edwards but I think he takes a competitive decision.  

Prediction: Peter Sobotta (+170) via decision*

UFC Fight Night 127: Werdum vs Volkov Betting Odds

Odds as of March 15 at Bovada

  • Fabricio Werdum -190
  • Alexander Volkov +155
  • Jimi Manuwa -225
  • Jan Blachowicz +175
  • Terrion Ware +230
  • Tom Duquesnoy -300
  • Leon Edwards -210
  • Peter Sobotta +170
  • John Phillips -125
  • Charles Byrd -105
  • Danny Roberts -185
  • Oliver Enkamp +150
  • Danny Henry +250
  • Hakeem Daqodu -325
  • Paul Craig +350
  • Magomed Ankalaev -500
  • Stevie Ray N/A
  • Kajan Johnson N/A
  • Mark Godbeer N/A
  • Dmitry Sosnovskiy N/A
  • Nasrat Haqparast N/A
  • Kajan Johnson N/A

*Odds will be added when they are posted