UFC Fight Night 164: Blachowicz vs Jacare Odds and Picks

The UFC heads back to Brazil as it visits Sao Paulo for the first time since September of 2018. The Octagon will be set up at the Ginasio do Ibirapuera on November 16 and the card is headlined by a fight in the light heavyweight division. Jan Blachowicz is a -185 favorite as he welcomes Ronald “Jacare” Souza to his new weight class as a +150 underdog.

Jan Blachowicz vs Jacare Souza

Jacare Souza (+150) is making the jump to the light heavyweight division after going 4-4 over his last eight middleweight bouts, remaining near the top of the division over that span. He is coming off a five-round unanimous-decision loss to Jack Hermansson in April. Blachowicz (-185), on the other hand, is looking for another winning streak after his second-round knockout win over Luke Rockhold in July. The Poland native had won four straight prior to losing to Thiago Santos in February.

The Brazil native is a very patient fighter, usually marching his opponents down but waiting for them to engage so he can counter back. However, his hand speed is usually a tick slower than his foes and that leads to getting hit more than he lands. He does his best work tight in the clinch and, ultimately, on the floor. He’s extremely dangerous with his submission skills, as 14 of his 26 wins have come in that manner. Blachowicz is primarily a striker with heavy long kicks that he follows up with really fast hands. He can be held against the cage when he’s put in that position but does a good job keeping the fight on the feet.

Prediction: Jan Blachowicz (-185) via knockout

Odds as of November 14 at Sportsbook

Shogun Rua vs Paul Craig

We get to see former light heavyweight champion Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (-285) in the Octagon for the first time since last December as he takes on submission specialist Paul “Bearjew” Craig (+225). Rua has won four of his last five fights, two by knockout, but he also suffered a first-round knockout loss to Anthony Smith in July 2018. Meanwhile, Craig is competing for the fourth time in 2019, going 2-1 in his previous three fights with the two wins coming by submission.

The Scotland native, Craig, has elite, high-level submission skills. Bearjew’s striking, on the other hand, is very basic and with typical lead jabs and hooks, mostly to keep his opponents at bay before he storms in trying to bring the fight to the floor. He doesn’t land many takedowns, though he will pull guard to work toward a submission, with 11 of his 12 pro wins ending by that fashion. Conversely, Shogun is a fantastic striker with really fast and accurate hands. He is mostly a boxer, not throwing a large variety of strikes, but he gets in the face of his opponents and uses exceptional head movement and powerful hands to put his foes away.

Prediction: Shogun Rua (-285) via knockout

Odds as of November 14 at Sportsbook

Charles Oliveira vs Jared Gordon

Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira (-400) lays his five-fight winning streak on the line with Jared “Flash” Gordon (+300) eyeing his second two-fight winning streak in the UFC. Oliveira’s five wins during this streak have all been finishes, four by submission and one by knockout. Conversely, Gordon had a second-round T/KO over Michel Quinones in his debut in June 2017 but hasn’t had a finish since.

The Brazil native, Oliveira, is a well-rounded fighter with good solid strikes mixed with nasty submission skills. He does a tremendous job cutting down his opponents’ angles and not giving them any breathing room. He marches his foes down throwing long kicks and powerful punches and does so without any fear of getting taken down, with 18 of his 27 pro wins coming by submission. As for Gordon, he has good footwork but his short reach leaves him at a disadvantage as he needs to get in the line of fire to land his strikes. That said, he does a good job of getting inside by throwing combinations with his fast hands and using his footwork for quick entries.

Prediction: Charles Oliveira (-400) via knockout

Odds as of November 14 at Sportsbook

Antonio Arroyo vs Andre Muniz

Antonio Arroyo (-105) is making his first trip to the Octagon after two Dana White Tuesday Night Contender Series wins. He is taking on Andre “Sergipano” Muniz (-125), who is also making his UFC debut following back-to-back DWTNCS victories. Both Brazil natives had decision wins in their first DWTNCS appearance and submission wins in their second.

Arroyo does a really good job fighting at distance, utilizing his long powerful kicks to slow his opponents down and keep them away. He marches his opponents against the cage and then makes his reads on his foe, slowly inching forward making them engage so that he knows how to attack. Muniz is also an aggressive fighter backing his counterparts down, but he uses punches rather than kicks to punish his opponents. However, in closing the distance, he tends to leave his head on the center line and often drops his backhand, leaving him vulnerable to counters.

Prediction: Antonio Arroyo (-105) via knockout

Odds as of November 14 at Sportsbook

Markus Perez vs Wellington Turman

Markus “Maluko” Perez (-120) is eyeing his first winning streak in the UFC after posting a 2-2 record through his first four contests, with his two losses coming by decision and his two wins by submission. Meanwhile, Wellington Turman (-110) makes his second walk to the Octagon coming off a narrow split-decision loss to Karl Roberson in July.

Maluko relies a lot on his kicks for his strikes, slowly chipping away at his opponents until they rush in and he can look to drag the fight to the floor. His punches tend to find the target but he rarely follows them up with a combination and he often lunges in with his hands low, which leads to him eating a shot on entry. Perez’s submission skills can’t be ignored, though, with half of his 12 pro wins ending in that manner. Meanwhile, Turman didn’t show much of any interest keeping the fight standing against Karl Roberson as he secured four takedowns in the bout and he had fantastic transitions on the floor. On the feet, Turman doesn’t have a lot of head movement and was quite a bit slower than Roberson.

Prediction: Markus Perez (-120) via decision

Odds as of November 14 at Sportsbook

James Krause vs Sergio Moraes

Sergio “The Panther” Moraes (+180) is on the first losing slide of his career coming off back-to-back losses to Rocco Martin and Warlley Alves earlier this year. Meanwhile, James “The James Krause” Krause (-230) – creative fight name, I know – is surging on a five-fight winning streak with two of those bouts ending in a finish, one by knockout and one by submission.

Krause is an aggressive fighter who has good power in his hands and seems to always be throwing a strike at his opponent. He has really good conditioning as well that allows him to push the pace for the duration of the bout and he uses his jab well to set up his more powerful strikes. After landing just four takedowns in his first seven UFC fights, he has landed six in his last five. Conversely, Moraes does a lot of standing on the outside looking for the perfect opportunity to fire back. He absorbs 3.43 significant strikes per minute while only landing 2.38 per minute and he has been outstruck in eight of his 13 UFC bouts. The Panther has good submission skills but has only one victory in that manner since 2013.

Prediction: James Krause (-230) via knockout

Odds as of November 14 at Sportsbook

Here’s a look at the rest of the odds for UFC Fight Night 164: Blachowicz vs Jacare:

Odds as of November 14 at Sportsbook

Odds as of November 14 at Sportsbook

Odds as of November 14 at Sportsbook

Odds as of November 14 at Sportsbook

Odds as of November 14 at Sportsbook

Odds as of November 14 at Sportsbook