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UFC Fight Night 90 Betting Preview and Odds

UFC Fight Night 90 kicks off three straight nights of fights leading up to UFC 200, and it’s headlined by one of the top fights of the week — Rafael dos Anjos vs Eddie Alvarez for the lightweight title. Dos Anjos is coming off a dominant first-round TKO over Donald Cerrone while Alvarez earned the title shot after two straight split-decision wins over Anthony Pettis and Gilbert Melendez.

Dos Anjos has staked his claim as one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the UFC after running through a Murderers' Row of lightweight talent. As a result, he enters the fight as a -350 favorite, easily making him the biggest favorite of the three UFC main events this week. Alvarez comes in at +265.

After a string of decision wins prior to reaching title contender status, Dos Anjos has evolved into a vicious striker. Combining his striking attack with a 3rd Degree BJJ black belt makes him one of the most complete fighters on the UFC roster.

Alvarez has also seen some evolution in his skill set, showing he’s much more than just a brawler in his last fight vs Pettis where he utilized his wrestling to secure the W. Yes, it was a less exciting approach, but it was smarter, and the game plan was likely inspired by watching dos Anjos control Pettis with wrestling when he won the title.

Going into the fight as the underdog is nothing new for Alvarez, as his last three victories came as the dog, so the -350 price tag on RDA seems inflated. However, it’s hard not to side with RDA in this one, given the absolute tear he’s been on. Alvarez will be in trouble if the fight hits the mat and RDA is a more well-rounded striker. Alvarez’s last three victories have all come via split decisions, making me think that he might have entered the tail end of his prime fighting years, with his peak occurring during his title reign in Bellator.

In closing, MMA math doesn’t always make sense, but in this case, I think it does. As mentioned, RDA’s last two victories have come via complete and total ass-kicking over Pettis and Cerrone — one of which Alvarez lost to, and the other he earned a razor-thin decision against.

Rest of Card

This isn’t exactly what you’d call a deep card, but starting with the co-main event, there’s a few intriguing fights bettors should keep an eye on.

Roy Nelson vs Derrick Lewis is a fight between two guys going in different directions and a fight in which I think the odds are backwards. As a +105 underdog, Lewis has three straight T/KO wins, with the last two coming in the first round. Nelson has competed against most of the big names in the heavyweight division, but he’s won just two of his last seven fights, making his -135 price tag nonsensical. Nelson turned 40 a few weeks ago and it’s only a matter of time before Father Time calls his name.

If you’re looking for more underdog value, here it is — there are four fighters on the card with two or fewer career losses that are underdogs. Belal Muhammad (+115), Alberto Mina (+105), Dileno Lopes (+195) and Lukasz Sajewski (+190) are probably names that you’ve never heard of, but that’s kind of the point because that’s where the value is. I find oddsmakers have trouble accurately setting lines for lesser known fighters, so a sprinkle on these underdogs could set your bankroll up quite nicely for the TUF Finale and UFC 200.

Here’s the complete list of odds for UFC Fight Night 90:

UFC Fight Night 90 – Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Rafael dos Anjos -350
  • Eddie Alvarez +265
Odds as of July 7 at Bovada
  • Roy Nelson -135
  • Derrick Lewis +105
  • Alan Jouban -145
  • Belal Muhammad +115
  • Joseph Duffy -400
  • Mitch Clarke +300
  • Vicente Luque -450
  • Alvaro Herrera+325
  • Reginaldo Vieira-145
  • Marco Beltran+115
  • Gilbert Burns -240
  • Lukasz Sajewski +190
  • Felipe Arantes -160
  • Jerrod Sanders +130
  • Pedro Munhoz-230
  • Russell Doane+180
  • Anthony Birchak -250
  • Dileno Lopes +195
  • John Makdessi -150
  • Mehdi Baghdad +120
  • Mike Pyle -120
  • Alberto Mina -110