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UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Usman Betting Odds and Predictions

Demian Maia wrestles with Gunnar Nelson during a UFC welterweight fight

For the first time in the history of the promotion, the UFC will set up the Octagon in Chile on May 19. The main event will pit fast-rising Kamaru Usman against longtime UFC veteran – and late replacement – Demian Maia.

The rest of the card is filled with some interesting names from Latin America, as well as the highly anticipated debut of Andrea Lee.

The card will feature plenty of big favorites, which should not be a shock to fans of the UFC. But how will the biggest bouts on the card go down? Here is the breakdown and picks for a few of the more intriguing bouts for UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Usman.

2018 Prediction Record To Date
Straight UpPicking FavoritesPicking Underdogs

Demian Maia vs Kamaru Usman

You know what you’re getting with Demian Maia (+325), as the fourth-degree BJJ black belt wants to get his opponent to the ground. He is arguably the best BJJ practitioner in MMA history, as he easily overwhelms opponents on the ground. His striking game is largely meat-and-potatoes – simply there to facilitate his grappling. However, Maia has a tendency to play with his food or take his foot off the gas sometimes.

Kamaru Usman (-450) is arguably the most avoided fighter in the welterweight division thanks to his mixture of tremendous wrestling, ever-growing striking and natural gifts that take too long to list. Usman was an all-American wrestler in college and can still easily grind his opponent into a fine dust with this skill set. However, he has been trying to strike more in his more recent bouts and has shown he can hang in there with good strikers.

Maia is between a rock and a hard place. He is 40, lost his last two and needs wins to remain relevant. He needs to take fights like this to try to hang around but Usman is one of the worst stylistic matchups in the entire division for him.

Prediction: Kamaru Usman (-450) via knockout

Alexa Grasso vs Tatiana Suarez

Alexa Grasso (+450) is a big, athletic fighter with some fantastic technical striking skills. Her entire family lives and breathes boxing, something you can see when watching Grasso strike. She wades into the pocket, throws quick combinations and gets out before her opponent can retaliate. However, she can be tentative at times in her striking, looking for the perfect punch. Grasso’s grappling is solid but good wrestlers can have their way with her.

Tatiana Suarez (-700) is a two-time international medalist in freestyle wrestling, a skill set she bases her entire MMA style on. Suarez relentlessly hunts for takedowns in the Octagon, whether from the clinch or chaining together attempts from a distance. She is big and technically refined, making her one of the worst fighters in the division to let get top control. Suarez knows her striking is secondary but uses kicks well at a distance to slowly hurt an opponent’s base for a takedown.

Suarez should have her way with Grasso in this fight. There is a chance that Grasso can catch Suarez coming in for a takedown attempt but outside of that, I can’t see any path of victory for Grasso.

Prediction: Tatiana Suarez (-700) by decision

Zak Cummings vs Michel Prazeres

Zak Cummings (-140) is an often-overlooked presence in the welterweight division. Cummings is an absolutely massive fighter for this division – he has fought at light heavyweight – and happily physically dominates his opposition. His grinding style isn’t always the sexiest but with an improving counter-striking game and a black belt in BJJ, he can win fights in any facet.

Michel Prazeres (+110) moves up in weight after missing the 155-pound limit for lightweight in three of his last four fights. Prazeres is going to be at a massive size disadvantage in this fight, which is a big concern since he is at his best when he can grind opponents out. He is a submission and control artist by trade but has an effective – if underwhelming – striking arsenal.

Prazeres will be absolutely dwarfed by Cummings in this bout. That is a massive concern considering Prazeres looks to grind his opponents and work behind his jab, neither of which should be useful against the bigger Cummings.

Prediction: Zak Cummings (-140) via decision

Brandon Moreno vs Alexandre Pantoja

Brandon Moreno (EVEN) is still a prospect in many regards. Though “The Baby Assassin” has excellent submission skills and some nice combinations in his striking arsenal, his wrestling is still raw, which limits his use of submissions, and he is fairly hittable on the feet. Moreno’s active style helps him create chaos, where he excels.

Alexandre Pantoja (-130) is a well-rounded fighter who tends to get overlooked in an often-ignored flyweight division. Though “The Cannibal” is more noted for his grappling – which is likely his best – his striking game isn’t anything to laugh at. It’s not the most refined but he has power and is more than willing to get into a slugfest.

This is a tough fight to call – maybe the toughest on this entire card. Both guys are good on the ground but I give Pantoja a slight edge on the feet thanks to his power, which leads me to picking the Brazilian.

Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja (-130) via decision

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Usman Betting Odds
  • Demian Maia +325
  • Kamaru Usman -450
Odds as of May 17 at Bovada
  • Alexa Grasso +450
  • Tatiana Suarez -700
  • Jared Cannonier +195
  • Dominick Reyes -250
  • Diego Rivas -160
  • Guido Cannetti +130
  • Aljamain Sterling -120
  • Brett Johns -110
  • Veronica Macedo +250
  • Andrea Lee -325
  • Vincente Luque -200
  • Chad Laprise +160
  • Zak Cummings -140
  • Michel Prazeres +110
  • Brandon Moreno EVEN
  • Alexandre Pantoja -130
  • Poliana Botelho -165
  • Syuri Londo +135
  • Gabriel Benitez -225
  • Humberto Bandenay +175
  • Enrique Barzola -190
  • Brandon Davis +155
  • Henry Briones +230
  • Frankie Saenz -300
  • Claudio Puelles +240
  • Felipe Silva -310