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UFC Fight Night: Santos vs Anders Betting Odds and Picks

UFC Fight Night Sao Paulo Betting Odds and Picks

For the seventh time in UFC history, the Octagon will be set up in Sao Paulo, Brazil for UFC Fight Night: Santos vs Anders. The card seemed slightly cursed as the original main event was supposed to be Glover Teixeira vs Jimi Manuwa. However, injuries to both fighters have resulted in the new main event of Thiago “de Lima Marreta” Santos vs Eryk “Ya Boi” Anders with Santos as a -155 favorite and Anders coming back at +125. I’ve got a breakdown and pick for each fight on the main card.

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Thiago Santos vs Eryk Anders

Oddsmakers see this as a fairly close fight with Santos, the No. 12-ranked middleweight, coming in at -150 and the unranked Anders coming back at +120. Anders has a 3-1 record and has been a favorite in each of his four UFC bouts, with his one loss being a narrow split-decision defeat to Lyoto Machida. Meanwhile, Santos has been favored in 10 of his 15 career UFC fights and has a 10-5 record with two losses as a favorite. This fight will be in the light heavyweight division due to Anders stepping in on late notice.

Santos (-155) has vicious knockout power with thunderous powerful kicks. Of his 18 professional victories, 12 have come by way of T/KO. De Lima Marreta has lightning-quick speed when fighters get in his range as he seeks the knockout from the moment the ref says go. The Brazil native also can strike from a distance as he sets up his kicks very well and has finished four of his UFC fights by this method. Santos had a knockout loss earlier this year to David Branch and scored a unanimous-decision victory over Dana White Tuesday Night Contender Series alum Kevin Holland just over a month ago.

Anders (+125) has a similar style to his counterpart, having seven of his 11 professional wins come via T/KO. Ya Boi has just one loss on his record, when he took on a dangerous competitor in Lyoto Machida at UFC Fight Night: Belem in February. Anders was outstruck in that fight 66-46 but landed three takedowns and took a split-decision loss after five rounds. The Alabama native has won two of his four UFC bouts via T/KO, including knocking out Tim Williams just under a month ago. That most recent fight was the first time that Anders failed to secure at least one takedown over his four trips to the Octagon.

Expect fireworks when these two knockout artists step into the cage for the main event. The two warriors have a combined 19 knockouts over their careers. Santos is a more aggressive fighter, which could get him in trouble against Anders, who can change the fight with a single strike. Although both competitors have skills on the floor, I don’t expect the fight to go there as Santos defends 72 percent of takedown attempts, electing the fight to be a standup war. We have never seen Anders get stopped and I don’t know if Santos can score a decision victory.

Prediction: Eryk Anders (+125) via knockout

Thiago Santos vs Eryk Anders Fight Center

Alex Oliveira vs Carlo Pedersoli Jr.

Oliveira (-400) makes his 13th career walk to the Octagon and brings a high-paced aggressive style. “Cowboy” has 11 knockouts to his name, including three in his UFC career, while also securing three submissions. Since July of 2016, Oliveira is 5-1 with one no contest, going to decision just once over that span, with his only loss coming via knockout vs Yancy Medeiros at UFC 218. The Brazil native has the ability to dictate where the fight goes as he averages 3.47 takedowns per 15 minutes, but also averages 2.96 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 2.07 significant strikes per minute.

Pedersoli Jr. (+300) is the definition of a technically sound fighter. “Semento” has 11 career victories, three by knockout, four by submission and four by decision, while his only loss came by decision. The Florida native made his UFC debut earlier this year at UFC Fight Night: Liverpool when he took on Bradley Scott. Pedersoli Jr. outstruck his opponent by five strikes and also secured three of his four takedown attempts en route to a split-decision victory. The 25-year-old also landed 4.47 significant strikes per minute in that fight and defended 62 percent of strikes against him.

Pedersoli Jr. brings an eight-fight winning streak into this bout, but he’s making a huge jump in competition when he takes on Oliveira in Brazil. Semento is extremely well-rounded and hasn’t shown many weaknesses, but Cowboy has been around the block a time or two and has the experience and skills to roll with anyone in the welterweight division.

Prediction: Alex Oliveira (-400) via decision

Alex Oliveira vs Carlo Pedersoli Jr. Fight Center

Sam Alvey vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

Alvey (-365) has sneaky knockout power and has racked up 19 of his 33 career victories via T/KO. “Smile’N” has been on quite a tear since July of 2016, winning seven of his nine fights, including wins over Nate Marquardt, Rashad Evans and Gian Villante. The Wisconsin native has tremendous wrestling defense, defending 84 percent of takedown attempts and keeping the fight on the feet where he can show off his power. Of Alvey’s five UFC losses, only once has he been stopped. The other four defeats were by close decisions.

Nogueira (+275) enters the Octagon for the first time since November 2016. “Lil Nog” dropped three of his last four fights prior to seemingly retiring, losing each of those fights by knockout, the only three knockouts in his career. The 42-year-old was outstruck 129-12 while being taken down five times in his last fight against now-Bellator light heavyweight champion Ryan Bader. The Brazil native is a well-rounded fighter, earning seven wins by knockout, six by submission and nine by decision.

This is surely going to be a standup battle between Alvey and Nogueira. Lil Nog dropped three of his last four fights, all by knockout, which is Alvey’s typical game plan. It’s hard to say what we will see out of Nogueira considering he hasn’t entered the cage in nearly two years and the last time we saw him it wasn’t pretty. Smile’N has been on quite the roll recently and confidence is high as he brings his two-fight winning streak into this battle.

Prediction: Sam Alvey (-300) via knockout

Sam Alvey vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira Fight Center

Renan Barao vs Andre Ewell

*Renan Barao missed weight for this 135-pound fight as he weighed in at 141.75 pounds but the fight remains on the card and he will forfeit 30 percent of his purse.

Barao (-140) has fallen from grace since losing his bantamweight belt to TJ Dillashaw at UFC 173. “The Baron” has dropped five of his last seven fights, including the aforementioned loss of the belt to Dillashaw. Barao had six straight fights that were finishes, two by submission and four by knockout, and he was on the winning end of four of those bouts. Since then, Barao has been in four straight decisions and has lost three. The Brazil native is well-rounded with explosive speed and power mixed with terrific submission skills if the fight hits the mat.

Ewell (+110) makes his Octagon debut after posting an 8-1 record in his last nine fights, including seven finishes, four by submission and three knockouts. Of those seven finishes, five came in the first round. “Mr. Highlight” is big for the division, standing five-foot-11, and has an impressive 76-inch reach, but he fights small, with lightning-quick speed and good footwork. Of Ewell’s four career losses, two came by submission while the other two came by decision.

Ewell’s record may be inflated by taking on lesser opponents who don’t typically have strong records and takes on a former champ who is treading water at this point. Mr. Highlight is entering enemy territory for his UFC debut, which isn’t going to be an easy task, and he will likely need the finish to put Barao away. I believe the path to victory for Barao is going to the mat but that’ll be difficult against a much taller and longer fighter. This is a bit of a coin flip and a tightly contested bout.

Prediction: Renan Barao (-140) via decision

Renan Barao vs Andre Ewell Fight Center

Randa Markos vs Marina Rodriguez

Markos (-125) has been on a win-one, lose-one streak over her last 12 fights and is coming off a loss, so she’s due for a win, right? “Quiet Storm” makes her 10th walk to the Octagon where she has gone to decision in eight of the previous nine fights, with the only finish being a submission loss to Cortney Casey at UFC 202. Markos constantly pursues the takedown in her fights, landing 25 percent of her attempts, and when she does drag the fight to the mat, she rains down a relentless ground and pound.

Rodriguez (-105) makes the jump from Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series last month to the official Octagon this month. The Brazil native is a perfect 10-0 with five wins by knockout, with four of those coming in the first round. The 31-year-old is tall and long, standing three inches taller than Markos, and has a four-inch reach advantage. Rodriguez is a Muay Thai practitioner and blitzes her opponents with terrific short punches and knees.

This is a classic striker vs grappler matchup with Markos seeking the takedown while Rodriguez aims to end the fight with a knockout. The Brazilian will definitely have the home-field advantage in this fight which may weigh heavy if the fight goes the distance as the majority of Markos’ fights have. The big question is whether Rodriguez can keep Markos away from her for her to set up her fight-ending strikes.

Prediction: Marina Rodriguez (-105) via decision

Randa Markos vs Marina Rodriguez Fight Center

Here’s a look at the rest of the odds for UFC Fight Night: Sao Paulo:

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs Anders Betting Odds
  • Thiago Santos -155
  • Eryk Anders +125
Odds as of September 21 at Bovada
  • Alex Oliveira -400
  • Carlo Pedersoli Jr. +300
  • Sam Alvey -365
  • Antonio Rogerio Nogueira +275
  • Renan Barao -140
  • Andre Ewell +110
  • Randa Markos -125
  • Marina Rodriguez -105
  • Charles Oliveira -400
  • Christos Giagos +300
  • Francisco Trinaldo -240
  • Evan Dunham +190
  • Ryan Spann -165
  • Luis Henrique +135
  • Augusto Sakai -250
  • Chase Sherman +195
  • Sergio Moraes -285
  • Ben Saunders +225
  • Mayra Bueno +115
  • Gillian Robertson -145
  • Thales Leites +105
  • Hector Lombard -135
  • Elizeu Zaleski -800
  • Luigi Vandramini +500
  • Livia Renata Souza -1200
  • Alex Chambers +700