UFC Fight Night Uruguay: Shevchenko vs Carmouche II

UFC Fight Night Uruguay: Shevchenko vs Carmouche II

For the first time in UFC history, the Octagon will be set up at the Antel Arena in Montevideo, Uruguay for UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs Carmouche II. The women’s flyweight belt will be on the line with the champion, Valentina “Bullet” Shevchenko, being the heavy -1200 favorite and the challenger, Liz “Girl-rilla” Carmouche, coming back at +700. I have a breakdown and a pick for each of the fights on the main card.

Scott Hastings’ 2019 Prediction Record To Date
Straight Up Picking Favorites Picking Underdogs
73-53 62-33 11-20

Valentina Shevchenko vs Liz Carmouche

Shevchenko (-1200) is making her second title defense and is aiming to pick up a fourth straight win overall. “Bullet” dropped down from bantamweight when the flyweight division opened up and has put together a three-fight winning streak, including beating Joanna Jedrzejczyk to win the belt and then defending it against Jessica Eye at UFC 238 in June.

The 31-year-old has a terrific fight IQ and does a great job reading her opponent. Shevchenko throws strong kicks that she fires very quickly and accurately, while throwing strong straight punches as well. Additionally, if she does feel any pressure in the striking game, she has the skills to bring the fight to the floor as she averages 2.2 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Carmouche (+700) is looking for her first three-fight winning streak since she won the first six fights of her pro career. “Girl-rilla” has gone to the judges’ scorecards in each of her last seven fights, with the only two finishes in the Octagon coming in her first two fights, a submission loss to Ronda Rousey and a knockout win over current strawweight champion Jessica Andrade.

The California native is a very active fighter, constantly bouncing around on the outside and feinting in looking for her opportunities to shoot in and create a clinch or a takedown. She averages 2.95 takedowns per 15 minutes and hits 55 percent of her attempts, earning multiple takedowns in each of her last six fights. On her feet, Carmouche has a quick jab but doesn’t throw a lot of strikes, rather racking up her strike total via ground and pound.

Shevchenko has lost to just two women in her career, Amanda Nunes (twice) and Liz Carmouche back in 2010. Additionally, that loss to Girl-rilla was her only knockout loss as she went to the judges’ scorecards both times vs Nunes. I think Bullet is going to have a massive advantage on the feet with her terrific counters and kicks. Meanwhile, she stuffs 73 percent of takedown attempts, where Carmouche will want the fight to go. I do think there’s value on Carmouche at her number but I don’t think she wins the rematch.

Prediction: Valentina Shevchenko (-1200) via decision

Vicente Luque vs Mike Perry

Luque (-225) attempts to push his winning streak to six, with the previous five wins all being finishes. Overall, “The Silent Assassin” is 9-2 in the UFC with all of his wins being finishes and his two losses coming via decision. The Brazil native already has two knockout victories this year. The first was an epic war with Bryan Barberena and the second was a first-round finish of Derrick Krantz in May.

Luque has fantastic accuracy and sets his striking up well with combinations rather than just throwing one strike at a time. He has tremendous power behind his strikes as he has knocked out his last four opponents. Additionally, he does a good job switching stances and keeping his hands high to avoid much damage coming back the other way. Conditioning can be a bit of an issue, though, as he slowed down a lot in his war with Barberena in February.

Perry (+175) looks to collect back-to-back victories for the first time since he beat Jake Ellenberger and Alex Reyes in 2017. Since then, “Platinum” has gone 2-3 with his two victories coming by decision over Paul Felder and, most recently, Alex Oliveira in April.

The 27-year-old is a durable and hard-nosed brawler who continues to improve every time he steps inside the cage. Platinum takes the center of the Octagon and refuses to take a step backward, getting in the face of his opponent in a phone booth-style fight. Defensively, he doesn’t always keep his hands high and doesn’t have a lot of head movement, which has led to him absorbing 4.27 strikes per minute.

This has Fight of the Night written all over it. I think that Luque is the better striker offensively and defensively but Perry has never been knocked out despite being in some wild brawls. However, the longer the fight goes, the more the momentum swings in favor of Platinum as the Silent Assassin did slow in his war with Barberena, though he did hand Barberena his first career knockout loss in that bout.

Prediction: Vicente Luque (-225) via decision

Luiz Garagorri vs Humberto Bandenay

Garagorri (-125) is set to make his UFC debut and in doing so lays his perfect record on the line. The Uruguay native has finished each of his last five fights, all in the first round, four by submission and one by knockout. Overall, he has finished nine of his 11 pro wins, four by knockout and five by submission.

The 30-year-old is an aggressive fighter who storms at his opponent with wild strikes and nasty knees in the clinch. He makes good reads, swaying out of the way of strikes before sending a barrage of his own the other way looking to put his opponent away. Additionally, he is dangerous on the floor, with five submissions to his name, including four in his last five victories.

Bandenay (-105) looks to get back in the win column and put an end to his two-fight losing skid. The Peru native was signed by the UFC when he was on a five-fight winning streak, all of which were finishes, but he has a 1-2 record in the Octagon, getting knocked out by a slam vs Gabriel Benitez and losing by a three-round decision vs Austin Arnett his last time out in November.

Bandenay uses a lot of kicks to set up his offensive approach, slowly inching forward until he’s in range to unleash a flurry of strikes. When backing up on defense, he tends to not keep his hands high to protect against strikes coming back and he also frequently stands a little flat-footed after early offensive storms, looking a little tired. Lastly, he rarely throws his right hand for a jab but rather just long kicks or overextending left hands.

Garagorri is a composed fighter who is very patient setting up his shots, but when he engages, he throws combinations with a lot of power. It will be interesting to see how he handles Bandenay’s long kicks and the big lights of the UFC.

Prediction: Luiz Garagorri (-125) via knockout

Volkan Oezdemir vs Ilir Latifi

Oezdemir (-165) aims to put an end to his career-worst three-fight losing slide and collect his first victory since July 2017. “No Time” shot up the light heavyweight rankings with three straight wins in his first three fights, two of which were first-round knockouts that needed just 1:10 combined to finish. However, he has now dropped three in a row to Daniel Cormier, Anthony Smith and Dominick Reyes.

The Switzerland native is an extremely dangerous fighter in the first round, always stalking his opponent looking to land his heavy hands and put his foe away quickly. Oezdemir doesn’t exactly set up his strikes that well but rather throws lunging hooks to close the distance, where he can work in the clinch with strikes or bring the fight to the floor. The biggest knock on Oezdemir is that he slows down the later the round goes or the longer the fight goes, but his conditioning looked better against Reyes in his last appearance.

Latifi (+135) attempts to avoid his first-ever losing slide as he is coming off a three-round unanimous-decision defeat to Corey Anderson last December. “The Sledgehammer” has six losses in his career but has never had back-to-back defeats. Prior to his most recent loss, Latifi had been on a two-fight winning streak over Tyson Pedro and Ovince Saint Preux.

The Sweden native is predominantly a counter-striker, which makes sense since he’s short for the division, and uses his opponent’s forward pressure to help him close the distance. He doesn’t have a very high output, staying on the outside, and he prefers to dictate where the fight takes place, averaging 1.89 takedowns per 15 minutes and not ever being taken down in the Octagon.

There could be fireworks in the Sportsbook round of this bout, but the pace could slow dramatically afterward. Both Latifi and Oezdemir tend to throw big looping hooks that have a lot of power behind them. However, the Sledgehammer tends to be more patient and waits for his foe to press forward, while No Time likes to be the aggressor. The Switzerland native has straighter punches and I think he has more power, which could be the difference-maker.

Prediction: Volkan Oezdemir (-165) via knockout

Rodolfo Vieira vs Oskar Piechota

Vieira (-225) makes his Octagon debut and looks to remain undefeated. “The Black Belt Hunter” brings with him a perfect 5-0 record, including four submission victories and one knockout. Additionally, only one of his five fights has gone past the first round and that was back in 2017 in the second fight of his career.

The Brazil native has fairly good footwork that allows him to stay out of danger of his opponent’s strikes and gives him opportunities to find Sportsbooks for a takedown. Vieira’s striking isn’t really something to be feared as he throws long jabs and leg kicks to make it look like he is working, but his main objective is dragging the fight to the floor and he has terrific level changes and strength to achieve that goal.

Piechota (+175) returns to the Octagon for the first time since suffering his first career loss last July. “Imadlo” had a perfect 11-0-1 record before falling via second-round submission to Gerald Meerschaert in the Ultimate Fighter 27 Finale. The Poland native has finished 10 of his 11 victories, five by knockout and five by submission.

The 29-year-old has good footwork and head movement as he bounces around slowly stalking forward. He does tend to second-guess himself sometimes in striking, finding an opportunity to land but pulling back. When he does throw, he has good accuracy and power. Additionally, if the fight hits the floor, he is very aggressive in seeking a submission, but his lone loss also came in that manner.

Neither fighter pulls the trigger that aggressively on the feet, more so just waiting to find the perfect opportunity to land the big strike. Piechota slowed down big time in his last fight with Gerald Meerschaert and was dragged to the floor three times and ultimately finished in the second round. If he has a hard time stuffing Vieira’s shot, it could be a short evening for the Poland native.

Prediction: Rodolfo Vieira (-225) via submission

Enrique Barzola vs Bobby Moffett

Barzola (-135) looks to get back on track after having his four-fight winning streak snapped his last time out in March. The last seven fights that “El Fuerte” has been in have gone to the judges’ scorecards – five he won and two he lost, including his last bout with Kevin Aguilar. The Peru native hasn’t earned a finish since 2014, just before he joined the UFC.

Barzola has very good footwork with terrific speed and the ability to switch stances. He uses these skills to keep his opponent off-balance so he can find an opportunity to shoot and bring the fight to the floor, as he averages 5.29 takedowns per 15 minutes. El Fuerte has landed multiple takedowns in all five of his wins inside the Octagon. However, in his two losses, he had a combined one takedown, not finding a ton of success on the feet.

Moffett (+105) aims to rebound from his first loss in the UFC his last time out in March. “The Wolfman” earned a UFC contract with his second-round submission victory over Jacob Kilburn in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series last August. He followed that up with another second-round submission win vs Chas Skelly but lost to Bryce Mitchell by unanimous decision in March.

The Illinois native is a smothering fighter, closing the distance with jabs and straight rights. That being said, his bread and butter is in grappling exchanges, not in wars on the feet. He secured six takedowns through his first two fights in the UFC, earning a submission victory in the first one but taking Mitchell down five times without being able to secure a submission.

This fight will likely be a grappling battle between two strong wrestlers and Moffett likely has the edge in the submission game. Barzola will be much quicker on the feet and could keep the fight standing and just pick Moffett apart from afar but the Wolfman likely has the strength advantage, which makes for a very interesting battle.

Prediction: Enrique Barzola (-135) via decision

Here’s a look at the full list of odds for UFC Fight Night Uruguay: Shevchenko vs Carmouche II:

UFC Fight Night Uruguay: Shevchenko vs Carmouche II Betting Odds

Valentina Shevchenko vs Liz Carmouche 
Fighter Odds
Valentina Shevchenko -1200
Liz Carmouche +700
Vicente Luque vs Mike Perry
Fighter Odds
Vicente Luque -225
Mike Perry +175
Eduardo Garagorri vs Humberto Bandenay
Fighter Odds
Eduardo Garagorri -125
Humberto Bandenay -105
Volkan Oezdemir vs ilir latifi
Fighter Odds
Volkan Oezdemir -165
Ilir Latifi +135
rodolfo vieira vs oskar piechota
Fighter Odds
Rodolfo Vieira -225
Oskar Piechota +175
enrique barzola vs bobby moffett
Fighter Odds
Enrique Barzola -135
Bobby Moffett +105
cyril gane vs raphael pessoa nunes
Fighter Odds
Cyril Gane -400
Raphael Pessoa Nunes +300
tecia torres vs marina rodriguez
Fighter Odds
Tecia Torres  -165
Marina Rodriguez +135
rogerio bontorin vs raulian paiva
Fighter Odds
Rogerio Bontorin -120
Raulian Paiva -110
Geraldo de Freitas vs Chris Gutierrez
Fighter Odds
Geraldo de Freitas -135
Chris Gutierrez +105
Taila santos vs Ariane carnelossi
Fighter Odds
Taila Santos -175
Ariane Carnelossi +145
kazula vargas vs alex da silva
Fighter Odds
Kazula Vargas +210
Alex Da Silva -270
Gilbert Burns vs Aleksei Kunchenko 
Fighter Odds
Gilbert Burns +115
Aleksei Kunchenko -145
Veronica Macedo vs Polyana viana
Fighter Odds
Veronica Macedo -130
Polyana Viana EVEN