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UFC on Fox: Weidman vs Gastelum Betting Odds Preview

The UFC sets up shop in Long Island, New York for the first time in history this weekend for UFC on Fox 25. The main event features an intriguing middleweight battle with New York native Chris Weidman looking to end an ugly string of fights against Kelvin Gastelum.

The rest of the card features some fun fights for some hard-core fans. Keep an eye on Jimmie Rivera vs Thomas Almeida, which has serious fight of the night potential.

Chris Weidman vs Kelvin Gastelum

Weidman (+140), the former UFC middleweight champion, is in need of a win in this bout to prove he belongs among the division’s elite. ‘The All-American’ is a pressure-based fighter in the striking game who will push forward behind a steady, if sometimes loose jab. Weidman likes to throw kicks and he will do so at all three levels with a preference toward the midsection. The biggest issue is his tendency to move in a straight line, both forward and backward.

This pressure helps Weidman push his opponent to the cage where he can start to work his grappling game. He will throw varied attacks in the clinch and this helps open up his wrestling. A former D1 wrestler, Weidman’s takedown technique is smooth and he uses it both defensively and offensively. Once he is on the mat, you can really see Weidman shine with his mix of wrestling ability and his black belt in BJJ.

Gastelum (-170) has the speed and aggression in the striking department to help overcome his size disadvantage at middleweight. He overwhelms his opponent with volume and will constantly probe with his jab. He is primarily a boxer in the standup game but his feet are just as dangerous due to his speed and movement. Combining this pressure with his ability to keep his lead foot on the outside makes Gastelum lethal on the feet.

Gastelum’s athleticism helps greatly in his wrestling game, as his takedowns are largely based on an opportunistic explosion. That doesn’t help with his defense, as he is far from the best defensively. Gastelum has always had difficulty against high-quality wrestlers and that could only grow given the jump up to middleweight.

This is an interesting fight for the future of the 185-pound division. The division is deep with talent but only one of these two fighters can be considered elite moving forward. That being said, Weidman and Gastelum are both likely two wins away from a title shot with the division being so congested.

Other Notable Fights

The co-main event is an interesting bout between Dennis Bermudez (-210) and Darren Elkins (+170).  Bermudez is an athletic, hyper-aggressive fighter who has plenty of defensive deficiencies. His quickness is the real base for his striking, as Bermudez loves to push into the pocket, land speedy combos and then get out of harm’s way. “The Menace” was a collegiate wrestler who does an excellent job at mixing in takedown attempts with his strikes. Over time, we have seen a bigger emphasis on top control in Bermudez’s game, which is a step in the right direction because he is suffocating and aggressive once he gets the dominant position. Elkins is the definition of a grinder, as he looks to push his opponent against the cage and work takedowns. His ground game is mostly about positional dominance and capitalizing on any opportunities that present themselves. When standing, Elkins will push the pace and try to overwhelm his opponent. Elkins’ biggest characteristic is his cardio and tenacity, as the Indiana native is like the Energizer Bunny.

The main card kicks off with an exciting bantamweight bout between Jimmie Rivera (-200) and Thomas Almeida (+160). Rivera is an athletic, high-volume boxer who exudes athleticism. Despite being an aggressive puncher, ‘El Terror’ doesn’t exactly sport power in his hands – with just four career knockout victories. His takedown defense has been spectacular as he has yet to be taken down in his UFC tenure, though his opposition has been just OK. Almeida’s ability to knock opponents out with punches, knees and elbows makes standing with him a dangerous proposition. He is a marvel to watch, as he relies more on his technical acumen and momentum compared to overwhelming power. Almeida has good, not great takedown defense but keeping him on the mat isn’t easy, as he excels in scrambles.

UFC on Fox 25 Betting Odds
  • Chris Weidman +140
  • Kelvin Gastelum -170
Odds as of July 21 at Bovada
  • Dennis Bermudez -210
  • Darren Elkins +170
  • Patrick Cummins +130
  • Gian Villante -160
  • Jimmie Rivera -200
  • Thomas Almeida +160
  • Lyman Good -185
  • Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos +150
  • Rafael Natal EVEN
  • Eryk Anders -130
  • Ryan LaFlare -185
  • Alex Oliveira +150
  • Damian Grabowski +195
  • Chase Sherman -250
  • Kyle Bochniak +205
  • Jeremy Kennedy -265
  • Brian Kelleher -225
  • Marlon Vera +175
  • Timothy Johnson -240
  • Junior Albini +190
  • Shane Burgos -400
  • Godofredo Pepey +300
  • Chris Wade -300
  • Frankie Perez +230