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UFC: Holloway vs Poirier II Betting Odds

Holloway vs Poirier II Betting Odds

When the UFC heads to State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia on April 13, the card will be headlined by two interim championships. The main event has current featherweight champion Max “Blessed” Holloway moving up to take on Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier for the interim lightweight belt. Despite the change in division, Holloway is a -205 favorite to become a two-division champ, with Poirier coming back at +165. The co-main event has Kelvin Gastelum and Israel Adesanya battling for the interim middleweight strap.

Odds Analysis

This is the first time that Poirier is a true underdog since he was a +140 dog vs Joe Duffy at UFC 195 in January 2016 – the Diamond won that fight via decision. Poirier was a slight -107 dog vs Anthony Pettis in their fight in November 2017 and once again he had his hand raised, this time after a knockout victory.

Meanwhile, Holloway has been the favorite in five of his last seven fights, closing as a dog vs Jose Aldo at UFC 212 and as a pick’em vs Brian Ortega at UFC 231. A winning streak will come to an end in this fight as Max has won 13 straight, while Dustin is unbeaten in his last five. I was expecting Blessed to be the favorite but I was expecting closer to -160 or even tighter so I think there’s value on Poirier as that much of a dog.

How will this fight play out?

This is a rematch seven years in the making as the two stood toe to toe at UFC 143 in February 2012. That was the night Max Holloway made his UFC debut and it was a short-lived debut as he was submitted in the first round by Dustin Poirier. Since then, Blessed has gone 16-2 – including an ongoing 13-fight winning streak – and is the current featherweight champion. Meanwhile, Poirier has gone 12-4 plus one no contest, is riding a three-fight winning streak and is unbeaten in his last five. The no contest came vs Eddie Alvarez at UFC 211.

Both fighters have great chins, great striking and incredible cardio. Poirier averages 5.59 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.69 per minute, while Holloway averages 6.9 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.03 per minute. The Diamond will likely have the edge on the floor as he averages 1.75 takedowns per 15 minutes, but Blessed has an 83 percent takedown defense.

These are two competitors worthy of being in line to challenge current lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov when he’s off suspension, likely the card at Madison Square Garden in November. We could also be in store for a fight of the year contender when Holloway and Poirier meet at UFC 236.

For more information on this first and the entire UFC 236 card check out my breakdown and picks article.

 UFC 236: Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier II Betting Odds
Max Holloway-205
Dustin Poirier+165

Odds as of April 12 at Bovada