Ian Garry is the -150 favorite over Carlos Prates (+122) at Sportsbook heading into their UFC Kansas City main event showdown on April 26.
Garry is taking this fight on relatively short notice after Prates was shuffled off UFC 314 and into the main event slot for this one. Prates, undefeated in the UFC, has made waves with a flurry of KOs, while Garry looks to rebound from his first career defeat to Shavkat Rakhmonov in December.
The Machado Garry vs Prates odds have moved a bunch, but for now, this is where we stand.
Machado Garry vs Prates Betting Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ian Machado Garry | -150 |
| Carlos Prates | +122 |
Odds as of April 25 at Sportsbook
How to Bet Machado Garry
It would surprise me if Garry put Prates away here. While Carlos owns an impressive four-inch reach advantage over the Irishman, Garry's grappling is slept on. Garry has used his grappling for both offense and defense lately, leading to a few decision wins and a narrow decision loss to Shavkat — Garry came close to sinking in a choke in that fight, too.
Prates has the touch of death and likes to march down opponents, but Garry is a very high IQ fighter. He had to be absolutely perfect to beat Shavkat. Although he lost, he showed some mettle. Typically, fighters must be perfect to beat Garry, so we'll see how this goes.
In the end, I see Ian Garry avoiding major damage from Prates, a contrast to Prates' previous fights. Prates has also never even come close to a 25-minute fight. Garry's cardio looked very sharp in his last bout, so that could be another X-factor.
I'm 2u on Garry moneyline heading into UFC Kansas City.
How to Bet Prates
Given Prates' lack of late-round experience, you'll want to bet Prates by KO. His Tapology records suggest he hasn't won by submission, and his early UFC highlights suggest he'd much rather kick and punch his way to victory.
I imagine Prates will pace himself more than usual, but that's not necessarily a strategy that favors the Brazilian here. A high-IQ point fight with Garry won't go well, and in that scenario, Prates may hit the final horn wondering where all the time went.
"The Nightmare" must step on the gas early to put some fear into Garry's game. While Shavkat won the fight, he never truly frightened Garry at UFC 310. He left the door open just a crack, and Garry almost wiggled back in for an upset. There must be no doubt in this one. If I were taking Prates, I'd go by KO.
Garry vs Prates Pick: UFC Kansas City
My primary pick for UFC Kansas City is Ian Garry moneyline at -125, as I expect his grappling, cardio, and fight IQ to neutralize Prates’ early power. I’ll also take the OVER 3.5 rounds at -120 odds, given Garry’s tendency to go the distance and Prates’ lack of five-round experience.
